Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 WEDNESDAY Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues, now in GA, east FL panhandle, north and central FL, SC, NC, south and east VA, east MD, DC, south NJ, east TN. TORCON - 5 central and east NC, southeast VA; 4 east SC; 3 rest of area except 2 central and north FL; 2-3 DE, south NJ, east MD. A chance of severe thunderstorms overnight in NJ, Long Island. TORCON - 2 to 3 From SE thread... Dr. Forbes chances for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z GFS/NAM showing some okay MLCAPE and weakly negative LI's for Wed evening... ample shear and decent ML Lapse Rates with high amounts of SRH and decent SWEAT... just wish we had some SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I kinda doubt we'll get a lot up here. A run or two with some better instability but gotta think it'll have a hard time getting up here well. SPC outlines seem pretty good though I wouldn't be shocked to see them bump the slight to DC area in the end since models have us kind of on the line. I'd think most or all reports are RIC into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM struggles to get us out of the 40's Wednesday, but there it finally does get the warm front through during the early evening, and it gets DCA up to 60 with sfc-based cape values just over 500 j/kg and of course shear and helicity up the wazoo. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namsvrfcst/ We often see the warm front take all day to get north in this area, so this scenario seems plausible. May be a window for severe between 00 and 05z or so. << edit >> NAM actually keeps us in the upper 30's for much of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC249 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 &&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DRIZZLE WILLCONTINUE TUE EVENING UNDER SFC WEDGE UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVESEARLY WED. A FEW POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE OVERFAR WRN MD AND ERN WV POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH SOME FZDZ POSSIBLE.CONFIDENCE ON SFC TEMPS NOT VERY HIGH ATTM AND SINCE THIS IS ATHIRD PERIOD EVENT WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY TYPE OF ADVISORIES THIS FAROUT. ANY FREEZING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLEIF ANY IMPACTS.HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP WED AS MOISTURE SURGES IN STRENGTHENING WARMAIR ADVECTION PATTERN. DEEPENING TROF AND SFC LOW PRES PASSINGWEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FORUPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATE WED-WED EVENING WITH SHOWERS ANDT-STORMS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INT-STORMS BRING CONCERN FOR FLOODING. SEVERE T-STORMS ALSO NOT OUTOF THE QUESTION DUE TO STRONG WIND PROFILES AND INCREASINGINSTABILITY. MODEL PRECIP FIELDS SHOW A QCLS MOVING THROUGH THEAREA BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THU. MANY SEVERE WX PARAMETERS ARE RATHERIMPRESSIVE FOR LATE FEB SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT LATEWED-WED EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 18z NAM is pretty good IMO... raised the SBCAPE up to around 500 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Question becomes what LWX defines as "significant severe" - All in good fun but I don't see sig severe for most if not all of our area. Probably gusty showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Can we talk about regular or strong storms in this thread, or is it for severe only? If the latter, it might be a pretty short thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 No offense to the fine mets at LWX but I'll probably go with the SPC marginal for now heh. Good luck finding a truly significant svr episode in Feb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 No offense to the fine mets at LWX but I'll probably go with the SPC marginal for now heh. Good luck finding a truly significant svr episode in Feb here. Supernino! Convection from the dateline! Jokes aside, winds are ripping pretty good off the deck. If it can mix down (assuming warm front gets though in time) I could see some interesting stuff happen at least. 40mph gusts with some rumbley periods would "feel" like severe considering the calender date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Supernino! Convection from the dateline! Jokes aside, winds are ripping pretty good off the deck. If it can mix down (assuming warm front gets though in time) I could see some interesting stuff happen at least. 40mph gusts with some rumbley periods would "feel" like severe considering the calender date. Yeah the main unusual aspect is the big shear. Usually once you get into such a meridional flow it's harder to pull off a big day.. not to mention we're pretty far north for so early. I'm going to guess cool air wedge won't give in super quick. May still end up with a window but could be after the best lower level winds move by. SREF is not very bullish on instability even to the south in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah the main unusual aspect is the big shear. Usually once you get into such a meridional flow it's harder to pull off a big day.. not to mention we're pretty far north for so early. I'm going to guess cool air wedge won't give in super quick. May still end up with a window but could be after the best lower level winds move by. SREF is not very bullish on instability even to the south in the Carolinas. Yeah the 15z SREF over on the SPC site for mean LI keeps things quite positive area wide until you get pretty far to the south and east. I love severe so it's easy for me to get over invested but I'll stay skeptical on this one at this point. 18z NAM looked decent I suppose. But it's February and we are DC...we like to fail at severe even in June most times. If I lived near the SEVA coast I'd be pretty interested. Whenever we've seen a narrow tongue of good parameters get modeled into our area it generally turns out to be our favorite #pencilthinline. But Yoda will continue to drag me in with renewed model parameters. Must resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One of my friends lives in Baton rogue. She's concerned about tomorrow. Looks like they're on the edge of the hatched zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 18_GFS_054_KDCA_severe_sfc.png Wow makes me think this will be an impressive event for the Carolinas and SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Wow makes me think this will be an impressive event for the Carolinas and SE VA. Based off a sounding for DCA at 00z THUR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Based off a sounding for DCA at 00z THUR? I assume what he means is that we'll probably fail but if models are giving OUR area soundings like that imagine what they must be showing for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Based off a sounding for DCA at 00z THUR? If DCA is that bad then coastal Carolinas will be a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Interesting how a 992 MB low over Arkansas is a gulf coast Tornado outbreak any day of the year, doesn't matter if it's January or July, although getting that strong of a TC or cold core system in June would be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 0z UKMet has a 982mb low tomorrow, and 0z Euro is 980-982mb just south of Memphis........that is crazy if it verifies. The wind fields will be insane east of the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z NAM blasts the WF through our region it would appear...KIAD at 03z THUR is 500-600 MLCAPE and SBCAPE... 55 to 60 kts 0-6km shear... 440 1km s2/m2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Probably the models overdoing the warm push as usual. But that does look nice, Yoda. I need to read up on how SARS works. I've never understood that box that says No Quality Matches but then says 100% TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 why no mention of severe wx in AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I've lived here six and a half years now, after moving from the relative severe storms mecca of western TN, and am amazed at how long it takes to get warm air pushes into this area to give a chance at severe. Always seems well later than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 why no mention of severe wx in AFD? guess it's not major significant anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 guess it's not major significant anymore. right lol from that to "isolated thunder" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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