WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Let's hope our luck changes. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks like Happy Hour GFS is about to suppress/crush a storm to our south on the 29th with that big 1035 High pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks like Happy Hour GFS is about to suppress/crush a storm to our south on the 29th with that big 1035 High pressing down. And then delivers a 3-6" snow at about day 10-11 that would be melted before you ate lunch the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looks about right for 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 And then delivers a 3-6" snow at about day 10-11 that would be melted before you ate lunch the next day. lol yeah and despite the fact it waits for the high to slide off the coast and a GL low is about to arrive on the scene. Meh, the idea is there. Three runs in a row it gives us some snow....and during a window where the ensembles have been advertising a pretty good pattern for a while now. I am interested, which is more than I can say about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We have scored accumulating snows on the tail ends of both negative AOs this year and i expect we will do it one last time with this -AO. So this feb 29-mar3 window seems legit to me unlike the feb 24 deal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We have scored accumulating snows on the tail ends of both negative AOs this year and i expect we will do it one last time with this -AO. So this feb 29-mar3 window seems legit to me unlike the feb 24 deal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk except I'm not sure the AO is going back positive by then. Is on gefs but eps keeps the AO negative throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 except I'm not sure the AO is going back positive by then. Is on gefs but eps keeps the AO negative throughout. yeah prob depends on how long it lasts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 yeah prob depends on how long it lasts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm not saying that threat can't work just I'm not sold its over after that like the gfs says. Of course the euro probably doesn't like that threat because it's not breaking down the AO yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 -AO is overated. -EPO -NAO when I see blocking in those regions I don't wish for it to move over the pole.into the -AO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 -AO is overated. -EPO -NAO when I see blocking in those regions I don't wish for it to move over the pole.into the -AO region. most of the long range guidance I've seen suggests higher heights all across from the epo to the nao domain. I'm not as worried about some of the warm signal across the conus with runs that have good epo and nao signals. That just doesn't add up. Might get a warm day or two but systems will be forced to dig into the east on that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 -AO is overated. -EPO -NAO when I see blocking in those regions I don't wish for it to move over the pole.into the -AO region. -AO may be overrated but it has happened twice this winter and resulted in a blizzard and 4" of snow. Better correlation with accumulating snow this winter than any other index. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 most of the long range guidance I've seen suggests higher heights all across from the epo to the nao domain. I'm not as worried about some of the warm signal across the conus with runs that have good epo and nao signals. That just doesn't add up. Might get a warm day or two but systems will be forced to dig into the east on that setup. On the same page. Ens mean ml and surface temps shouldn't be a reason to "boo" when the h5 pattern is one that offers more potential. I'm in recliner mode. The next week offers nothing wintry for my yard unless some massive and unlikely changes take place. There is nothing specific to follow closely. I have a hunch that we are tracking something specific by mid-late next week. Maybe an overrunning scenario. Enough confluence on the ens means showing up to keep that option open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 I wish the weather gods would give us a great 4 week window filled with success. The past couple of weeks could have produced with just a little luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 HUGE pattern improvement on the Day 10 EURO. In fact, I'd venture to say that on this run if it ran to day 12-15 it would show a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 HUGE pattern improvement on the Day 10 EURO. In fact, I'd venture to say that on this run if it ran to day 12-15 it would show a snowstorm. A lot of energy running around with plenty of cold air. Recipe for greatness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 One more region wide event to track and kill is all we could ask for. Then we can paint Easter eggs and buy mulch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 HUGE pattern improvement on the Day 10 EURO. In fact, I'd venture to say that on this run if it ran to day 12-15 it would show a snowstorm. early March into mid March is when I've been thinking we have our real window. Just like January we usually try to rush the development of these patterns. With it being so late I can understand but this week is still part of the relaxation period or beginning of the transition. Long range runs have had good blocking where we want it but also been doing some weird stuff under it and showing some odd solutions. I'm of the opinion that once we get within range the guidance will start to show the threats, like bob said. I'd be shocked if we're not tracking something by the middle of this week. We may have 2-3 more threats to track before the blocking breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Gfs has been hitting that March 2-3 period for several runs now. That may be the next real threat. I wouldn't be shocked if the overrunning threat feb 29 returns either. Right now it looks squashed but it's still hanging around enough to think it could pop back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I must have missed the good panels on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I must have missed the good panels on the euro. I didn't notice any huge improvements on the EPS. Blocking looks a bit better than previous couple runs. Its a good look overall, as is the GEFS. Nothing new, we just need to wait a few days and there should be a threat or 2 in tracking range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 On the same page. Ens mean ml and surface temps shouldn't be a reason to "boo" when the h5 pattern is one that offers more potential. I'm in recliner mode. The next week offers nothing wintry for my yard unless some massive and unlikely changes take place. There is nothing specific to follow closely. I have a hunch that we are tracking something specific by mid-late next week. Maybe an overrunning scenario. Enough confluence on the ens means showing up to keep that option open. most of the long range guidance I've seen suggests higher heights all across from the epo to the nao domain. I'm not as worried about some of the warm signal across the conus with runs that have good epo and nao signals. That just doesn't add up. Might get a warm day or two but systems will be forced to dig into the east on that setup. I've been looking at this too, and noticed what you are talking about in terms of the mid level and surface temps in some of the model runs. When one looks at the 500 mb flow (of either the ops or ensembles), you would think "wow, that looks pretty darned good, we may well have one last event to track." I'm talking from the period right after the (non)-event middle of next week through about the first week of March. But then, the 850 mb and 2 m temps looked pretty "meh", or at least warmer than what I would have expected. Not sure why. On the ensembles, I'd guess a good bit of spread is causing that in part. Also, maybe it really is partly because we're looking at the beginning of March, implying you need something quite amplified to cool it off. I know we cannot directly compare other years to this one per se or say that the same things will happen, but we have mustered some really cold air during the day in March, along with solid snow events in the past couple of years. With the projected 500 mb flow being shown, I'd say that's reason to be encouraged if we're looking for one last snow to track (or next-to-last, haha!). Actually, in checking last night's models, the temps look a bit more "in line" (so to speak) with what you see at 500 mb, whatever that is worth. I haven't seen much in regard to the overrunning potential around Feb. 29, but that signal for Mar. 2-3 sure is showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 6z run confirms PSU'S analysis of what we may see during first week of March. We're going out with a bang. Yeah I know, about 11 days away but a little blocking helps to nail things down in the LR sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Really like what the 6z gefs is serving up d8-11. Once we get into late winter the big cold pushes don't blast to Atlanta or jacksonville nearly as easily. The boundary is more apt to stall and lift. Good precip can run the gradient. 6z gefs solutions really show this as does the op. EPS is pretty uneventful but that can easily change as we move through time. I'm pretty optimistic for a last hurrah as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This may sound sick, but as we head into March...it got me thinking whether we can end up with a colder March than this past December. I think we can do it, if we have at least near normal temperatures in March. At DCA... December 2015: avg. max=58.8, avg. min=43.5, mean=51.2 March Normals: max=55.9, min=37.6, mean=46.8 So even just a normal March would do it easily...pretty impressive. If it's colder than normal, even more so. Amazing what a +11.5 departure in December will do! [ETA: For as warm as it was, we "only" broke one record high in Dec. 2015, and tied another. But we also broke/tied a handful of high min records. So it was the consistent warmth (especially overnight?) that was so remarkable, more than the number of records.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well in the next couple of weeks we will have a +pna, -ao and MJO going through 7 and 8. If any time will deliver its then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Really like what the 6z gefs is serving up d8-11. Once we get into late winter the big cold pushes don't blast to Atlanta or jacksonville nearly as easily. The boundary is more apt to stall and lift. Good precip can run the gradient. 6z gefs solutions really show this as does the op. EPS is pretty uneventful but that can easily change as we move through time. I'm pretty optimistic for a last hurrah as well. Same here. I know some on this board don't care for March snows but as I've said, I'd be all in for an event on the level of what we got the last two Marches. Then I'd be good with calling it a winter and cashing the chips out. (Ah, who am I kidding...I know I'd be sucked right back in if another possibility showed up later on...but you know what I mean!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I must have missed the good panels on the euro. 240 HRs, big ULL in SE Canada, with energy about to reinforce the cold and a shortwave in the Southwest. It is a 100x better look on the OP than what we were seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 My only concern is that the pattern the models are showing comes to fruition. They have advertised decent blocking a few times this year that never really materialized. Recall the Kara ridge block that was the cause for the blizzard wasn't on the long lead ensembles. I guess all we can do is wait to see if this comes. Just nobody be too disappointed if it's another mind fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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