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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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probably less interesting to most but wow, that system's got some mean ass frightening wind potential.  That ukmet solution would bring serious issues to LI and the CP everywhere... 

 

Yeah, Nothing like beating large water droplets off your windows and air conditioner as a reminder of a Sou'easter in Feb

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+1

All in good fun

Seems cutter is locked in

 

I disagree.

 

I don't like the teleconections for a cutter at all. I fully expect the models to have this flatten out and slide more ENE/NE as it approaches the east coast with time. 

 

PNA to fall and decrease to negative, AO to increase to positive and NAO to increase to positive as we trend closer to the event...All spells a more strung out/less amped and faster solution...

 

There's no blocking, but a +NAO is great for inhibiting developing waves along the east coast, with much faster westerlies.

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I disagree.

I don't like the teleconections for a cutter at all. I fully expect the models to have this flatten out and slide more ENE/NE as it approaches the east coast with time.

PNA to fall and decrease to negative, AO to increase to positive and NAO to increase to positive as we trend closer to the event...All spells a more strung out/less amped and faster solution...

There's no blocking, but a +NAO is great for inhibiting developing waves along the east coast, with much faster westerlies...

So what would that translate to weather wise?
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So what would that translate to weather wise?

 

Difficult to say with much detail--my only confidence is in saying this likely isn't a cutter..

 

But my gut says I'd take the 850 mb low at hr 108 on the 18z GFS and slide that ENE/NE, and maintain it as an intense open wave, going over NJ/LI, and continue that trajectory to near Cape Cod.

 

Would mean a snowier/colder solution for many folks in the interior and NNE. 

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