mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Model thread is pretty long, figured since we are within 12hrs or so of people starting to see snow, lets get the obs thread going. Short range model talk okay here. Good luck to all, and I hope Ian gets some snow for his birthday. Now let's slay bitches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most recent LWX snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nice map. Love the gradient. Less than an inch for me. Typical for these events. Looks a little low for areas up 270, but they have time to update. Nowcast deal anyway. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wonder if my mangled 1/4" can survive Wednesday and make it to the cold that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Most recent LWX snowfall map That's weird they lowered for DC... Model guidance looks better now then when they had 2-3" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That's weird they lowered for DC... Model guidance looks better now then when they had 2-3" for DC Going to be very interesting for us. I think we will get around an inch in DC with the initial precip until about 12z tomorrow but then it's all about the nonrlun. If we get into the best part of the norlun I think we can make a run at 3-5 despite marginal temps. Looking at hour 42 of the euro it's going to be close. If we are fringed then we will probably won't accumulate at all during the day Tuesday except for cartops. Not being familiar with norluns the one thing I remember reading from New England is that even at close ranges they can be tough to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Strange they cut back now that the guidance has gotten better. When the guidance looked horrible they were bullish lol. Yeah, I dunno. My area was 8" this morning when I first looked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Strange they cut back now that the guidance has gotten better. When the guidance looked horrible they were bullish lol.And they do it all the time when there's any model discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Even srefs have come around nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And they do it all the time when there's any model discrepancies. Not surprised though. This has high just potential for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Snow map from NCEP NDFD (non weatherbell users can find maps here: http://graphical.weather.gov/) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LWX will be cautious. i don't blame them. This is high bust potential and immediately bumping totals up off a couple runs would go against climo for these events. Just keep it modest and add potential in any disco to CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Same as above, but zoomed in for DCers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well I guess it is a high risk, high reward deal. If temps in the District torch a bit and we get lighter precip... Yeah I agree with NWS keeping totals low in the district. Like I was saying earlier unless we get right under that norlun it's going to be tough for us, and most guidance has us right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Harrisburg view for people on the eastern shore and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Same as above, but zoomed in for DCers Look at that N-S gradient through AA County. Definitely a Miller B distribution climo-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Same as above, but zoomed in for DCersThat map is a perfect example why I chose Linthicum when deciding where to live in AA County. Bwi is 5" and I'm on or just south of the 6-7" line. Of course, 4-5 miles to my west/wnw in Elkridge often smoke me with their additional 250-300', but it ain't worth the Howard County property taxes. Sorry Scraff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NE Maryland is destroyed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NE Maryland is destroyed!! Not legit. Needs all caps and repetitive descriptors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If we can get clouds in here fast, could hold temps down a few degrees. That plus some drier air, as evidenced by the low dew points this AM, could help shave a critical 1 - 3 degrees off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not legit. Needs all caps and repetitive descriptors. OBLITERATED PUMMELED NEMD gets NAM'D PUPPYMONKEYBABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ok, so besides Raven94's NE MD, what is the likelyhood the main swath of snow or bands move south or what would it take to make that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If we can get clouds in here fast, could hold temps down a few degrees. That plus some drier air, as evidenced by the low dew points this AM, could help shave a critical 1 - 3 degrees off. LOL, just posted the same thing in the other thread. There's also a push of warmer air in front of the front. Columbus is rain and upper thirty's. Cincy is rain also. The only snow obs I can find were Lexington and Jackson KY. Huntington Wv is 41 while Elkins is 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Southern areas definitely have high bust potential because of marginal temps but I question whether western areas of the forecast area may as well. Models have consistently shown what looks to be subsidence coming off the mountains and in some cases have had it very pronounced. Really know nothing about it besides the fact that it dries the air and raises the temps so really have no other thoughts on it except that it may be a potential wildcard thrown into the mix for forecasting for our western regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Southern areas definitely have high bust potential because of marginal temps but I question whether western areas of the forecast area may as well. Models have consistently shown what looks to be subsidence coming off the mountains and in some cases have had it very pronounced. Really know nothing about it besides the fact that it dries the air and raises the temps so really have no other thoughts on it except that it may be a potential wildcard thrown into the mix for forecasting for our western regions. As someone near that area I can tell you that it is concern. It becomes less of a concern if our wind develops an easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What will schools/OPM do? The timing could make this a disaster if they open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What will schools/OPM do? The timing could make this a disaster if they open. Today? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Today? Seriously? I'm talking about tomorrow, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 What will schools/OPM do? The timing could make this a disaster if they open. One school system will try to hardass it out and will have 20 bus accidents, its a given with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Did you see 10Z GFS? NE MD CREAMED, PUMMELED AND RAKED BY HEAVY SNOWBANDS HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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