bluewave Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The Arctic recently set a new record January high temperature at 925 mb by a wide margin. It easily surpassed the previous record warm Januaries of 1977 and 2005. Both those winters featured extreme Arctic outbreaks in our local area. 1977 was famous for the duration of the cold while 2005 was noteworthy for the rapid reversal of a very warm pattern to cold. 2005 also featured a turn to snowy with the extreme Arctic warming. Record January Arctic warmth at 925 mb courtesy of the excellent Alaska Weather Blog Winter 2015-2016 started out with historic warmth in December which was the most impressive monthly warm departure that many locations ever experienced. An extreme blocking and warmth episode developed over the Kara and expanded across the Arctic setting the stage for the historic blizzard in NYC. This blizzard produced the greatest daily snowfall on record for NYC. This occurred against the backdrop of a still mild pattern with only 10 below normal days at NYC through February 6th. Warm Arctic cold continents blocking patterns have provided some of the best blocking and snowfall patterns that we have ever seen here during the 2000's. The models have been indicating that a short but extreme Arctic outbreak could happen here around Valentine's Day. A powerful Western North American and Arctic blocking pattern is in progress. This is leading to the development of a frigid Arctic airmass and strong surface high pressure. Models indicate that we could come close to record low temperatures for the date. 2/14 records for the local area NYC....2......1916 JFK.....4.......1979 LGA....1.......1979 EWR...0.......1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Good thread Bluewave you been all over this arctic blast! So far the 12z models are even colder for next weekend ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Very nice discussion, Bluewave. The 0z ECMWF was near 0°F for NYC. Also, until yesterday, there has been a string of days during which Arctic sea ice extent set record daily minimum figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'd say this is the best chance that we have had in a long time for KNYC to finally get below zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0z GFS takes us down to zero Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The cold this weekend is a bigger story than any of the snow events this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The cold this weekend is a bigger story than any of the snow events this week. - 30 air gonna do it this time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 - 30 air gonna do it this time ? A ton of things can still go wrong, not much snow cover over us or over Upstate to the north or even the angle of approach is different where winds are more NW Than N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The GFS continues to forecast a direct discharge of Arctic air for February 14. The GFS MOS forecasts low temperatures generally in the single digits, with a few subzero readings in the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut Tri-State region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 0z GFS takes us down to zero Sunday morning. I'll believe it when I see it. It's been 22 years and counting. If last Feb didn't do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Does anyone have the 850 maps from 2/15 - 2/16 last year? That was the night I thought we were gonna do it. The park was plummeting late that afternoon, and we had hit 5F by 9pm. 0F seemed almost certain, but then temps stalled at 4F until after 8 am the following morning. 'Twas a sign: NYC is not getting below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Does anyone have the 850 maps from 2/15 - 2/16 last year? That was the night I thought we were gonna do it. The park was plummeting late that afternoon, and we had hit 5F by 9pm. 0F seemed almost certain, but then temps stalled at 4F until after 8 am the following morning. 'Twas a sign: NYC is not getting below 0. If I remember right that was not expected to be a night we did it, we all were surprised by how things dropped in the evening but the winds were decreasing and as soon as they leveled off the temp stopped dropping. It was a few nights prior which was the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If I remember right that was not expected to be a night we did it, we all were surprised by how things dropped in the evening but the winds were decreasing and as soon as they leveled off the temp stopped dropping. It was a few nights prior which was the best chance. Yea, I remember that too. Also, a few days later, we had probably our best shot where we dipped to 2F over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yea, I remember that too. Also, a few days later, we had probably our best shot where we dipped to 2F over night. I think the January 2014 outbreak we would have done it had the timing of the air mass been 6-8 hours faster. The core passed over at 10am to noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IIRC 850's were never below 25 last yr. Good wind direction and timing accounted for our single digit lows in and around NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Didn't think we'd see a dip like this. Last year February was so cold it wasn't that surprising. Highs in the teens and 20s were common. This year is going to be brutal. My Weather Underground forecast is -2° for Saturday night currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm going to be up at hunter mountain skiing this weekend. Satuday night looks to be around -10 to -15. Going to be brutal skiing sat aftn/sun morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I remember forky saying that it's not going to happen because 850's aren't -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm going to be up at hunter mountain skiing this weekend. Satuday night looks to be around -10 to -15. Going to be brutal skiing sat aftn/sun morning I went skiing last winter around President's Day in northern VT, it was probably about -20F up on the slopes. It wasn't too bad, just gotta layer up. The snow was freaking incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So far this winter has been easy breezy when it comes to the cold, so I'm not looking forward to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The 18Z GFS tried with that clipper redevelopment that the 00Z Euro and 12Z had as a miss, if that thing can clip us and put down fresh snow it may help too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm going to be up at hunter mountain skiing this weekend. Satuday night looks to be around -10 to -15. Going to be brutal skiing sat aftn/sun morning A lot depends on the wind. Was at gore a few times last year in those temps. Very manageable with little wind but a windy day changes the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ya wind is really a game changer. Skiied at stratton in feb 2003 right before the blizzard and temps were around 0 at the summit during the day, with a wind chill of -20, very unbearable. Could only ski for 30-45 minutes at a time before having to warm up inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 06z GFS has 4800 meters (480 dm) thicknesses for Albany on Sunday morning, as well as -14F at the surface, -35.7 Celsius at 700mb. Wow, that is some very cold air aloft and at the surface for the Northeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 we are seeing a typical lack of below freezing days for an el nino winter and a lack of measurable snowfalls also...the el nino winters in the table below have a total of measurable snowfalls...biggest snowfall.....measurable snows...biggest snowfall...total snowfall...days 32 or lower...winter minimum...1997-98, 1982-83, 1957-58, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2009-10 had less 32 or below minimum that the year before and after it...only 2002-03 had more days 32 or lower than the year before and after it...since 1950 1969-70 has the most days 32 or lower with 97...2011-12 has the least amount with 37...1997-98 has the record for the least amount of measurable snowfalls...Tied with 1877-78...1972-73 holds the record for the least amount of seasonal snowfall...1918-19 holds the record for the smallest big snow with 1.4" on March 22nd...1957-58 has the lowest temperature of the bunch with 3 degrees in Mid February...1976-77 recorded a -2 for the lowest el nino minimum in recent years... season..........measurable.........biggest snow.........total snow.....days 32 or lower........min 1997-98..............2.....................5.0" Mar. 22nd..........5.5".................49....................14 1982-83..............5...................17.6" Feb. 11th.........27.2".................53....................12 1957-58............13...................11.8" Mar. 21st.........44.7"..................59.....................3 1963-64............16...................12.5" Jan. 13th.........44.7"..................75.....................9 1965-66..............7....................6.8" Jan. 30th.........21.4"..................67.....................8 1968-69..............7...................15.3" Feb. 9th..........30.2".................82......................9 1972-73..............3.....................1.8" Jan. 30th..........2.8"..................57.....................7 1979-80..............5.....................4.6" Mar. 13th........12.8"..................70....................10 1986-87..............9.....................8.1" Jan. 25th........23.1"..................74......................4 1987-88..............7.....................5.8" Jan. 3rd..........19.1"..................74......................5 1991-92..............6.....................6.2" Mar. 19th........12.6"..................68.....................11 1994-95..............4...................10.8" Feb. 4th..........11.8"..................60......................6 2002-03............13...................19.8" Feb 17th.........49.3"..................86......................7 2006-07..............8.....................5.5" Mar 16th........12.4"..................63......................8 2009-10..............9...................20.9" Feb 25th........51.4"..................63.....................13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the nw flow off a warm lake ontario is the biggest issue. however, i think the record is breakable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looking at the SPC archive for KOKX shows it is rare to have a 850 mb temperature reading of a sounding of -25 C or lower. It is possible 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There really does seem to be some type of invisible barrier preventing central Park from hitting zero, much less going below it since January 1994. In January 2004 central Park hit 1° on two separate days. On one of those days it was 2° at 10 PM and only dropped one degree by 8 AM a ten-hour stretch. Of course as someone already mentioned there was the 2° morning from last year, where they seemed to hit a wall at 4°. I've always thought that because of the heat island effect, as opposed to the suburbs which usually have their coldest mornings on calm nights with a decent snowpack, the city needs somewhat of a wind with the cold air still rushing in at night to offset some of the effects of the heat Island. Sunday morning will be interesting, but because of the history of the last 22 years I doubt New York City hits zero, but I'd love to finally see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 February 18th, 1958 the max/min was 16/3...the day before was 10 max 6 min with 8" of snow on the ground and cloudy skies...twt how much snow will be on the ground on the 14th but every inch will help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the gfs shows the peak of the cold happening a little too early to break the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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