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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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As noted at the end of the previous thread, there is a notable westward shift with the lead low in the SREF today.   The SREF did a very good job sniffing out the westward trend with last night's/today's storm. 

 

 

Are you talking about today's storm or the upcoming lead low?

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Not sure if it was discussed in the old thread, but the 18z GEFS is very supportive of the 18z Op and 12z Euro solution. 

attachicon.gifgefs_pd3.gif

 

Yes, I think Bob described this and maybe showed the GEFS mean SLP plot.  It is very supportive.  I made a (lengthy!) comment in there that the set-up being advertised has been showing up not just today but even in recent days.  And not just a cycle or two of fantasy runs in one model, but it's got solid support in the Euro, GFS, and their respective ensembles.  You just couldn't ask for a better textbook look, in all honesty.  Yes, d+10 and all that, and we all know the usual caveats, but that kind of pattern and support for it is just remarkable to see at this point.  Others in here have targeted that general time frame (next weekend-ish) as well.  Whether that all ends up meaning much of anything by next week at this time or so, we'll see I suppose!

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Speed of that western wave is also key. If it takes too long we lose the look out East. 

 

Anyway, here is the 00z GGEM @ 144 hours, really solid setup. Look at that pig forming in SE Canada

 

I have the GGEM to 183 HRs on SV and it looks identical to the 18z GFS @ that time period. 

 

l30x7El.gif

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GFS is a southern stream disturbance this run instead of a northern one. Kicking too much of the wetern ridge east for my liking but the -EPO ridge is in a good spot.

 

Wouldn't get too down if this ends up sending it to the Lakes or something. The 00z GGEM is much faster with the wave. 9 days out so who knows, but the setup is prime, just need it to head East faster. 

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