Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Winter/Into Spring!

[BuffaloWeather]

Aside from the 1st 2 weeks in January this winter has been pretty abysmal for winter weather lovers. Here are the snow totals for the top cities in NYS. Even Perrysburg has not passed 100" of snow so far this winter. They are close standing at 97.2.

 

 

We could definitely see this coming as strong/record El Ninos and a warm/low snow Nov/Dec have a very strong correlation in this region. Usually these years also have snowier/colder than average Feb/March timeframes as the El Nino begins to weaken. But the strength and the effects this El Nino has/had on our winter has been undervalued into winter weather forecasts.

 

Today Buffalo set a record high of 61 degrees, the old record was 50 degrees in 1952. We beat the record by 11 degrees....Absolutely unreal warmth we have been seeing.

 

As a result of this warmth lake Erie has been running way above average when it is usually just about completely frozen by the 1st/2nd week of February. Lake erie stands at 35 degrees 1 degree shy of the record high of 36 for the date, average for the date is 32 degrees.

 

Even in the very shallow western portion of the lake, there is very little ice. I do not see the lake freezing completely this year at all...

 

 

Going forward the pattern looks much better for the next 2 weeks or so and would completely disregard any forecast that goes beyond that as the models have been completely pathetic this year.

 

Both the Euro Ens, GEPS, and GFS Ens show a nice trough developing next week and lasting for a decent amount of time.

 

 

 

 

 

The PNA looks to go positive, the AO negative, the NAO positive/neutral.

 

In this timeframe there will be several areas of low pressure/clippers riding along the trough of the access of cold air around the PV as it drops south across the area. This will open the door for several bouts of LES. As has been the case all year models show cold and then it disappears, so we will see if it happens in this case as well. But I guess we can hope for the best, and expect the worse this year.

 

The good news is next winter looks to be a strong La Nina, won't have to worry about a PAC dominated flow across the lower 48 like this winter.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

A couple of the NWS offices thoughts on next weeks outlook.

 

KBUF:

 

SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST ONE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
BERING SEA...AND THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO ALREADY
EXISTING TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST
RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH
SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY
TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED.

 

Grand Rapids Michigan:

 

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS NOR COLD AIR SO WE/LL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. BY FAR THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER WAVE
THAT MOVE ACROSS THE UP. THIS IS A MUCH DEEPER LOW AND WILL PRODUCE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND TOO. WE/LL SEE SOME SHSN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL REALLY START TO PLUNGE IN BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING. H8 TEMPS FALL FROM -7C TO -16C BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF TROUGHING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TOO
SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABUNDANT AND PERHAPS HEAVY.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

 

Cleveland:

 

THERE MAY BE A LEFTOVER SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER IN THE SNOWBELT SUN
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER TO PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO AFFECT THE WEST BY LATE
SUN NIGHT FOR THE NEXT CHC FOR SNOW. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND EASTWARD SPEED OF THE LOW MON INTO TUE SO WON`T FIGHT
THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TUE THRU WED AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA
AS THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE TO LOOK MORE LIKE LAST FEBRUARY
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX TRYING TO SET UP NEAR JAMES BAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP A BATCH OR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED.

[BuffaloWeather]

This link shows all the indices in one graph.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/

[BuffaloWeather]

It's going to be alright guys, we have the DGEX on our side! Season is saved!

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I think we get a warm-up the 3rd week of Feb, not sure how big but we definitely go back above normal on most long range guidance, its way out there so anything can change. I think that is what the BUF NWS mentions at the end of their forecast discussion.

 

[coh]

That has been the trend on the long range guidance for a while now...a short-lived (week or so) cold shot that looks less cold with each run. It is what it is...

 

I know it's only 3 days, but still pretty amazing to see the monthly anomalies sitting at +19 F right now.

[wolfie09]

Gfs tries to throw us a bone from the miller B on the 10th.

 

[wolfie09]

[ayuud11]

I'm keeping my eye out for late next week for some LES potential..

[wolfie09]

At the very least we should see a bunch of snow shower activity..Keeping my eye on the wed-thursday time frame, it's always just a week away.

.

[Revracer800]

No snow pack, lakes are wide open, sun is higher is getting higher up, betting next week won't be as cold as they are saying now. Just my opinion but what do i know haha.

[champy]

Look at this ****, what a load of crap. At this rate my in-laws in NJ will triple my snow total for the year.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Coming to Buffalo tomorrow after work, but not after receiving up to a foot of paste here in RI. Going to be a nightmare driving. Likely going to pass Buffalos seasonal total here by the middle of next week. Pretty crazy.

[BuffaloWeather]

Coming to Buffalo tomorrow after work, but not after receiving up to a foot of paste here in RI. Going to be a nightmare driving. Likely going to pass Buffalos seasonal total here by the middle of next week. Pretty crazy.

 

Based on 3 active Cocarahs stations in RH they are between 9-14" of snow for seasonal totals. Also no way you get a foot out of that event.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PMEST FRIDAY...* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGES TO SNOW FRIDAY  MORNING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING  COMMUTE...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

[ayuud11]

LOL check out the latest CANSIPS forecast for next winter!

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Based on 3 active Cocarahs stations in RH they are between 9-14" of snow for seasonal totals. Also no way you get a foot out of that event.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM

EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGES TO SNOW FRIDAY

MORNING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING

COMMUTE...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

yeah BOX is out of their mind and totally playing catch up to this event. If I see less than 5" I won't post a thing on this subforum for a year. I'm at roughly 11" to date, expecting about 8" or so here, with another possible storm Tuesday here looking to produce similar totals that would put me near 26" or so, pretty close to BUF.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

LOL check out the latest CANSIPS forecast for next winter!

 

Historically, when an El Nino flips to a La nina, a hot summer occurs, followed by a cold winter. Two recent examples include the summer of 1983 followed by the winter of 1983-84 and the summer of 1995 followed by the winter of 1995-1996. Both followed the mild El Nino winters of 1982-83 and 1994-1995.

[BuffaloWeather]

Historically, when an El Nino flips to a La nina, a hot summer occurs, followed by a cold winter. Two recent examples include the summer of 1983 followed by the winter of 1983-84 and the summer of 1995 followed by the winter of 1995-1996. Both followed the mild El Nino winters of 1982-83 and 1994-1995.

That would be my ideal year. I love hot summers, and cold winters usually coincide with above average snowfall which is good even though I am not a big fan of extreme cold.

[BuffaloWeather]

Some heavy snow right now around Dunkirk and just to my south.

[BuffaloWeather]

yeah BOX is out of their mind and totally playing catch up to this event. If I see less than 5" I won't post a thing on this subforum for a year. I'm at roughly 11" to date, expecting about 8" or so here, with another possible storm Tuesday here looking to produce similar totals that would put me near 26" or so, pretty close to BUF.

 

We will see, hope you get hit good. I think we cash in quite nicely next week in WNY.

[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

Dunkirk, ground is covered.

 

[ayuud11]

it's snowing pretty good outside! Looks like we are getting some upstream streamers over here by the westside.

[wolfie09]

Snowing nicely in Oswego right now, roads getting snow covered..

[wolfie09]

Need to perk myself up..

 

 

 

Lake Effect Summary - January 17 - 19, 2016

 

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 18.5" (Little Valley); Lake Ontario 22.4" (Fulton)

Duration:  60 hours +/-

Flake Scale:  2 flakes **
 

After brief respite from the January cold, and lake effect snow, arctic air flowed over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday, January 17th, with early weekend air temperatures in the 40s plummeting back below freezing. Our 6th lake effect event began Sunday morning.

Synoptically, this event featured a broad and deep upper level low over the Great Lakes region. This feature brought arctic air southward with temperatures at 850 hPa dropping to as low as -20c over the still unfrozen lake waters.  Ahead of this upper level low, surface winds were southwesterly and this brought the initial band of lake effect snow across far northern Niagara Frontier early Sunday morning.

Off of Lake Erie, a moderate snowband remained over Niagara County through the early afternoon hours.  As a surface trough approached New York State through the late morning hours, winds veered, and this began the southward drop to the snow band. Snow fell across the metro Buffalo region Sunday afternoon at a clip of 1 to 2 inches per hour, in part due to enhance low level convergence along a surface trough. The band of snow maintained its southward movement, and yielded 4 to 6 inches over the Buffalo metro area. By Sunday evening the band of snow was over the Ski County and the western Southern Tier.  A 280-290 flow over Lake Erie transitioned the lake effect snow band into multi banded structures through the night.

By Monday morning a wide area of light to moderate lake effect snow continued east of Lake Erie. While the snowfall rates were not impressive, generally under an inch, the persistent state to the snowbands brought storm accumulations upwards to a foot to a foot and a half by Monday night. The core of the cold air aloft passed over the lake Monday, January 18th, and this brought a peak to the lake induced equilibrium levels. Lake effect snow slowly trailed off through the overnight hours Monday and early morning hours of Tuesday.

Off of Lake Ontario light snow fell across the Saint Lawrence valley through the early afternoon hours of Sunday, January 17th.  By late afternoon a south-southwest to north-northeast band of snow ahead of the surface trough pushed inland across eastern shoreline communities. Behind this trough cold air deepened to near -20c over Lake Ontario and this pushed lake induced equilibrium levels up to near 15k feet by early Monday morning.  A well-defined band of lake effect snow formed late Sunday night, and early Monday morning on a westerly flow. This band of snow arced across northern Oswego County and the southern Tug Hill through the early morning hours of Monday, January 18th.  Just before dawn veering winds organized the band of lake effect snow over the Wayne-Cayuga-Oswego corridor. This band of snow increased in intensity to over 3 inches per hour by midday Monday bringing dangerous travel conditions over the southeast shoreline of Lake Ontario inland towards Syracuse. This band of snow at times had upstream connection to not only Georgian Bay, but also Lake Superior. While the main band of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario flew over the southeast shoreline Monday, there was another band of snow, originating off Lake Huron, and across southwestern Lake Ontario that brought several inches of snow through the day across Niagara, Orleans and western Monroe counties.

This northwest flow over Lake Ontario continued varying intensity to the snow bands through the night and into Tuesday, with subtle variations in the wind flow carrying the snows over the southern and southeastern shorelines. Behind the core of the cold air aloft, lake parameters began to diminish and this brought a decrease to the intensity of the bands of snow off Lake Ontario through the day Tuesday. Though this event ended Tuesday, light to moderate bands of snow continued along the southern and southeastern shorelines of Lake Ontario through Thursday adding several additional inches of snow.

This event largely fell over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, thus limiting the impact on local transportation. While there was a localized area of intense snow southeast of Lake Ontario Monday, the snow remained manageable through the event, and therefore a strong 2 flakes will be assigned to the event.  

 

Off Lake Erie...
18.5 inches... Little Valley
18.0 inches... Perrysburg
17.0 inches... Randolph
15.5 inches... Franklinville
12.0 inches... Mayville
11.8 inches... Sardinia
5.9 inches... Buffalo Airport

 

Off Lake Ontario...
22.4 inches... Fulton
19.0 inches... Redfield
16.5 inches... Mannsville
15.7 inches... Syracuse Airport
15.0 inches... Osceola
12.0 inches... Lorraine
11.0 inches... Pulaski

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Need to perk myself up..

 

EventSnowFall_011716.png

 

For such a garbage season the LES events have not been to bad. 6 Events so far and I bet we break 10 events in the coming weeks.

 

Lake Effect Summary - December 18-20, 2015

 

 

Off Lake Erie...

12.2 inches... Perrysburg

11.8 inches... Franklinville

11.5 inches... Little Valley

9.5 inches... Arkwright

7.2 inches... West Almond

6.0 inches... Colden

0.1 inches... Buffalo Airport

Off Lake Ontario...

36.0 inches... Lyonsdale

34.5 inches... Constableville

33.7 inches... Highmarket

19.5 inches... Redfield

18.0 in

 

Lake Effect Summary - December 31-January 3, 2016

 

Off Lake Erie...

12.0 inches... Perrysburg

12.0 inches... Elma

12.0 inches... Bennington

10.0 inches... Hamburg

9.0 inches... Colden

9.0 inches... Wyoming

8.0 inches... South Wales

Off Lake Ontario...

15.0 inches... Highmarket

11.5 inches... Constableville

11.5 inches... Redfield

9.0 inches... Bennetts Bridge

7.8 inches... Watertown

 

Lake Effect Summary - January 10 - 12, 2016

 

 

Off Lake Erie...

25.0 inches... Angola

19.0 inches... Forestville

14.0 inches... Colden

12.5 inches... Dunkirk

9.0 inches... Hamburg

4.4 inches... Lancaster

 

Off Lake Ontario...

38.0 inches... Lorraine

35.0 inches... Montague

21.0 inches... Lowville

21.0 inches... Brantingham

16.0 inches... Redfield

15.0 inches... Beaver Falls

8.3 inches... Watertown

 

ake Effect Summary - January 12 - 14, 2016

 

 

 

Off Lake Erie...

25.5 inches... Perrysburg

18.0 inches... Machias

15.0 inches... Forestville

13.2 inches... Wyoming

11.8 inches... Buffalo

8.0 inches... Alma

7.0 inches... N. Tonawanda

 

Off Lake Ontario...

42.0 inches... Lorraine

32.0 inches... Sterling

24.0 inches... Victory

17.0 inches... Hannibal

16.0 inches... Wolcott

15.2 inches... Cape Vincent

12.5 inches... Constableville

 

Lake Effect Summary - January 17 - 19, 2016

 

 

Off Lake Erie...

18.5 inches... Little Valley

18.0 inches... Perrysburg

17.0 inches... Randolph

15.5 inches... Franklinville

12.0 inches... Mayville

11.8 inches... Sardinia

5.9 inches... Buffalo Airport

 

Off Lake Ontario...

22.4 inches... Fulton

19.0 inches... Redfield

16.5 inches... Mannsville

15.7 inches... Syracuse Airport

15.0 inches... Osceola

12.0 inches... Lorraine

11.0 inches... Pulaski

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Totals from last night. Picked up .8" here.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=7&glossary=0

 

Perrysburg with 5" as the winner again, they are now over 100"

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Erie has been 36 the last few days and has tied the record for the highest recorded temp for the date. It would have to stay 36 until the 11th to break a record though and don't see that happening.

[wolfie09]

Gfs show's light snow/snow showers all week

 

 

Ggem pretty much the same but stronger with the lake effect..

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Gfs show's light snow/snow showers all week

 

gfs_tprecip_syracuse_29.png

 

Ggem pretty much the same but stronger with the lake effect..

 

cmc_total_precip_syracuse_28.png

 

It's an interesting set-up, not sure what to expect TBH. Of course I prefer the favored snow-belts with the LES.