DTWXRISK Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Indeed...very similar setup...hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Haha I posted about it in the Feb thread, glad I wasn't the only one who noticed it. Pretty awesome setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 After the back-and-forth swings in the LR models that occurred prior to the recent storm locking in early, I'd like to see some stability in this modeling over the next few days; otherwise it doesn't seem impossible, given the continued Nino, PAC and +NAO, that we'd be back to where we were a fortnight ago in terms of predictability... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 euro ens. like a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 euro ens. like a coastalWhat coastal? East is dominated by HP unless I am misreading the EPS. Something is coming out of the Rockies, but we are in pipe-dream territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Im more interested in the big storm that drives into the GL a few days prior. A low may form on the trailing cold front somewhere in the Southeast and come North *possibly*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 What coastal? East is dominated by HP unless I am misreading the EPS. .jpg] Something is coming out of the Rockies, but we are in pipe-dream territory. ens. at hr 276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 ens. at hr 276Gotcha. Thanks Midlo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I wish for the new players there was a way to label the systems so you knew the what you were looking at if the OP and ENS are out of phase. In fact I often have difficultly imagining the track of a storm when the models are broken out in 12hr increments. Maybe I'm off the mark here and saying ridiculous stuff but it seems like it could be more intuitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Im more interested in the big storm that drives into the GL a few days prior. A low may form on the trailing cold front somewhere in the Southeast and come North *possibly*. Thats another possibility, but data hasn't shown that last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I wish for the new players there was a way to label the systems so you knew the what you were looking at if the OP and ENS are out of phase. In fact I often have difficultly imagining the track of a storm when the models are broken out in 12hr increments. Maybe I'm off the mark here and saying ridiculous stuff but it seems like it could be more intuitive. Hard to explain really, it just comes down to getting a good feel reading the models & realizing that the weather runs on a certain wave length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I wish for the new players there was a way to label the systems so you knew the what you were looking at if the OP and ENS are out of phase. In fact I often have difficultly imagining the track of a storm when the models are broken out in 12hr increments. Maybe I'm off the mark here and saying ridiculous stuff but it seems like it could be more intuitive. That seems like it's more a cost of the graphical modeling than anything else - I mean, the algorithms for the models themselves surely are smoother and don't "jump" in 12 hour blocks, unable to fill in the gaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Im more interested in the big storm that drives into the GL a few days prior. A low may form on the trailing cold front somewhere in the Southeast and come North *possibly*. Don't count on it, -10c is too far southeast behind the cutter to support any sort of post frontal wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Don't count on it, -10c is too far southeast behind the cutter to support any sort of post frontal wave.. We are probably more likely to get a clipper before anything substantial, similar to what we saw last week before the blizzard. It looks like starting around the 4th cold will overwhelm the pattern so I suspect we will see a couple reinforcing shots and one of them will probably be accompanied with a clipper or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 We are probably more likely to get a clipper before anything substantial, similar to what we saw last week before the blizzard. It looks like starting around the 4th cold will overwhelm the pattern so I suspect we will see a couple reinforcing shots and one of them will probably be accompanied with a clipper or two. Agreed the -EPO pattern usually favors clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 We are probably more likely to get a clipper before anything substantial, similar to what we saw last week before the blizzard. It looks like starting around the 4th cold will overwhelm the pattern so I suspect we will see a couple reinforcing shots and one of them will probably be accompanied with a clipper or two. I'd take 3" of squeaky powder to help set the stage for something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Im more interested in the big storm that drives into the GL a few days prior. A low may form on the trailing cold front somewhere in the Southeast and come North *possibly*. Models starting to key in on this feature a little better. CMC, Euro, and GFS (minus the 6Z) all have it as well as their ensemble means. Some are admittedly a little farther off the coast, but still something to monitor. This potential intrigues me. Could be a nice quick hitting thump (with no N Atl block) for part of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Don't count on it, -10c is too far southeast behind the cutter to support any sort of post frontal wave.. You might be correct but it's not like a wave has never developed along a post arctic fropa before. Or am I completely off-base in thinking this is even a remote possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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