strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Urge caution on this -- in more ways than one. Caution No. 1 -- be ready for a terrible ice storm with this system. Caution 2: Also be ready for a big bust. It's important to note that neither the GFS nor the NAM at 12z actually show much winter precip for places like GSP/CLT, et al. For the NAM, Charlotte gets to -.5C for 3 hours but is basically at or above freezing the entire time with super warm upper level temps. Shelby only gets to -.1C for three hours. Haven't seen GFS soundings yet, but surface maps aren't impressive at 2m. Yes, the CAD could be underdone and I've certainly seen many times when that was the case. But I've also seen CAD OVERdone -- not as often, but it happens. This storm is a monster and will confound the models and the experts in some way -- we just don't know how. So, enjoy the ride, but be ready for anything!Spoken like a true former member of the hwy 74 bust crew Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 for rdu on the gfs. mixed bag. for greensboro, better snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think that's a safe bet right now for RDU. the one thing I would change is to shift half of that FZRA to Sleet based on strength of cad and a smaller warm nose. To me this is looking very similar to last year's event for RDU. Sleet fest with a little fzra on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 for rdu on the gfs. mixed bag. for greensboro, better snow chances Any chance you have one for Hickory NC(KHKY)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Something to watch on each operational and ensembles is where the low transfers to the coast and how far up into TN the primary low goes. If we have a more southern transfer, with additional CAD (assuming the models haven't figured out the strength of the CAD and the HP continues to trend stronger) then it could be higher totals for at least RDU west in NC. If there is a transfer over GA to SC, and the low bombs off the coast then we have a chance. If the transfer is over TN to NC (see 06z GFS) GEFS seems to favor a more northern transfer, EPS seems to favor a southern transfer. If you live in NC, you want the EPS to be right. Good post Jon...The 0z euro para was one of the best runs for our area. We did switch to rn for a few hours but not as bad as some of the other ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z GEFS mean does the transfer down in Chalreston, SC. Then it passes east of ILM. The h5 ULL passes over NC, centered over CLT at hr 96... south of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anybody believe CAD will be stronger and channel southwest from NE through the upstate SC and parts of GA. Cold air in place. RDU and CLT recieves a lot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Much improved 12z GEFS! Colder and low is noticeably further south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 New Updated Blog Post From Brad P. : http://wxbrad.com/winter-storm-threat-looming-late-thursday-saturday/?utm_content=buffer09189&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAVGEM holds serve with an early transfer to the coast. It obliterates North Carolina again as the 5h low wobbles east and never really climbs the coast. NYC is completely shut out on this run. Edit: In 6 hours, the lowest surface pressure transfers from around Huntsville, AL to Savannah, GA. The new coastal low then bombs out and slowly rides up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think we're going to see one more southward shift on the transfer.. noticing the base of the trough has been trending deeper, that'll make the sfc low transfer occur farther south. May also allow the ULL to cutoff moreso and farther south. If that's the case, it's going to be a massive WNC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Much improved 12z GEFS! Colder and low is noticeably further south! we are in the range of where the op models are in their wheelhouse I would think being under 100 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Anybody believe CAD will be stronger and channel southwest from NE through the upstate SC and parts of GA. Cold air in place. RDU and CLT recieves a lot of sleet Could this result in an increased risk for significant ZR in the Upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee85 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think we're going to see one more southward shift on the transfer.. noticing the base of the trough has been trending deeper, that'll make the sfc low transfer occur farther south. May also allow the ULL to cutoff moreso and farther south. Does this raise the chances for snow in central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 This could look more like January '96 than I figured. (Though wouldn't be quite as cold in the mid levels) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 we are in the range of where the op models are in their wheelhouse I would think being under 100 hrs I still use them looking for trends until about 48 hours. Especially important as all of the players are on the table. Once it locks in, I won't use them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS mean snowfall much further south. Lines up fairly well with the EPS (for now, anyways). 9"ish into my area... Might be better than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This storm is a monster and will confound the models and the experts in some way -- we just don't know how. So, enjoy the ride, but be ready for anything! Good post Bean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NC north of I-40 gets whacked with a big snow per the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashhh_2007 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What are the amounts or precip looking for Sanford? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GEFS members: e5, e7, or e11, please! I'm evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wow!Yeah this is what I was touching on in my post. May the south trend commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah this is what I was touching on in my post. May the south trend commence! Euro says "you're late to the party" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GEFS members: That can't account for ip/fzrn, right???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That can't account for ip/fzrn, right???? I'm not sure, actually. Usually, the GFS products seem to, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GEFS members: e7 or e11, please! I'm evil. #11 would be hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GEFS members: e5, e7, or e11, please! I'm evil. e14 please!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2M temp look marginal for much of NC on the GEFS Mean. Does not really line up well with the graphics of the individual members above (according to the Storm Vista maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Brad P. said(twitter reply) at least for the Foothills and Mountains that we will Definitely be under Winter Storm Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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