Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dedicated thread for this one. Looks like someone going to get hit with a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow bringn the mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dedicated thread for this one. Looks like someone going to get hit with a good one. What took you guys so long? Best look of the season for parts of NC. As usual it's not a slam dunk but a pretty darn good look. I posted the long range in the Mnt-Foothill thread from GSP. They def. have their eyes on it! Good luck guys......hope it breaks right for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dedicated thread for this one. Looks like someone going to get hit with a good one. GSP very bullish this far out. Surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Let's bring this puppy south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Let's bring this puppy south! Not sure how much more south the system will come but I think the CAD will start showing stronger as we get closer to the event. I'm really not wish-casting when I think we have a good chance of a major winter storm for our area. I'll repost what RAH said last night: PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z gfs snow maps were terrible for rdu, so close to the big totals to our N. i just dont see this one coming far enough S to help us. will most likely see a small S trend and then within 72hrs it will start the dreaded NW trend that we always see in these situations. nc mtns look to be in a prime spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here's hoping out mountain friends get hammered. One thing I'm unclear on is why there doesn't seem to be a big ice threat with this system. Is the CAD just not strong enough? Is this just the way Miller A's work? Something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm gonna need this to tick further South or a stronger CAD to settle in to get it good down here on the outskirts of Northwest Charlotte. Will certainly head up to my parents' house in Northern Carawba Couny though if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The south trends overnight are good. Still not quite there yet. But we have all week to get it further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So if we took the models verbatim right now, looks like RDU would get maybe a mix or trace of snow? With mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GSP pretty bullish at this point, at least for them. Good to see since they are usually very conservative, as they should be: AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATESTRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAYMORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGIONDURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILLSTRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROFRIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFSINDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OFTHE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATEDSEVERAL CONCERNS.FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATETO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURINGTHE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD ANEXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT ISIF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM.SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30SACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTHOF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. IWILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSSTHE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNSTHROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTICCOAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDSWILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSSTHE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILLFALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EASTACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THERAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONSWILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lots of potential for many of us if it tracks a little further south and closes off at 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Even conservative KFFC says it could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here's what the point forecast currently says for the KJNX area Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 For us in the W piedmont of NC/SC, to keep this an all snow event, we need the ULL to remain pos tilted until it crosses the MS river, else it's going to pull a stronger primary low up into the TN valley before hopping to the coast. It's very close to being a full throated Miller A coming out of the GOM if the wave digs just a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure how much more south the system will come but I think the CAD will start showing stronger as we get closer to the event. I'm really not wish-casting when I think we have a good chance of a major winter storm for our area. I'll repost what RAH said last night: PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED DURING THIS PERIOD. If the CAD increases the south trend will continue because it would mean the high in the NE is getting stronger each run and the confluence is getting stronger . Hard to get an increased cad with a NW trend . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 If the CAD increases the south trend will continue because it would mean the high in the NE is getting stronger each run and the confluence is getting stronger . Hard to get an increased cad with a NW trend . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If CAD increases, this will help pushing winter wx into the piedmont. More ice than anything if the sfc low pulls up toward TN first before jumping to the coast. If it maintains a miller A track, definitely a big snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z gfs snow maps were terrible for rdu, so close to the big totals to our N. i just dont see this one coming far enough S to help us. will most likely see a small S trend and then within 72hrs it will start the dreaded NW trend that we always see in these situations. nc mtns look to be in a prime spot though. The way I see this for the RDU is it's going to come down to how strong the CAD develops. Right now I think we have equal chances for it to be stronger, stay the same, or even trend weaker. So maybe a 33% chance of a major storm(we' very close). And of course the NW piedmont could be closer to 66% and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From GSP .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AT 4 AM MONDAY...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THEFORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD 1027 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO SPREADACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN REGION BY 12Z THURS. LOW TEMPERATURESEXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA. TO THE WEST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATXAROUND DAYBREAK THURS. THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITHA WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS CWA...SUPPORTING INCREASING POPSTHROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THETEMPERATURE FORECAST...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY A COLD RAIN ONTHURSDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT SN ACCUMS DURINGTHE MORNING HOURS...MELTING LATER IN THE DAY.AN IMPRESSIVE MILLER TYPE-A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATESTRONG 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAYMORNING...PEAKING AROUND 18Z FRIDAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGIONDURING THE REGION. AT THE MID LEVELS...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILLSTRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AS A SHARP...NEARLY CLOSED OFF...H5 TROFRIPPLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...THE GFSINDICATES THAT A BAND OF SFC CAPE MAY DEVELOP ON THE BACK EDGE OFTHE DEEP FORCING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING...LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND PWS AROUND AN INCH HAS CREATEDSEVERAL CONCERNS.FIRST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF MODERATETO HEAVY PRECIP WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURINGTHE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH RATES AND HEAVY QPF COULD YIELD ANEXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT THREAT ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...THAT ISIF THE PRECIP FALLS IN LIQUID FORM.SECOND...TEMPERATURES FRI MORNING RE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 30SACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STRENGTHOF COLD AIR DAMMING IS UNDER ESTIMATED WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS. IWILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSSTHE NRN MTNS AND EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.BASED OF FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS...SNOW...MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN MTNSTHROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...YIELDING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.THIRD...FRIDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE ATLANTICCOAST AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE MTNS. H85 WINDSWILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND TEMPS WILL COOL TO -3C TO -8C ACROSSTHE NC MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...FRIDAY TEMPS WILLFALL WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH FREEZING POSSIBLE EASTACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. THERAIN...SNOW...AND BLACK ICE WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. CONDITIONSWILL DRY AND REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The way I see this for the RDU is it's going to come down to how strong the CAD develops. Right now I think we have equal chances for it to be stronger, stay the same, or even trend weaker. So maybe a 33% chance of a major storm(we' very close). And of course the NW piedmont could be closer to 66% and so on. Aren't CADs normally underdone by models, especially at this range? I think if we can get the low to continue trending south, at least Central/Western NC will be set for a nice winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If that HP verifies stronger I could see the upstate getting a big ice storm unless the Low is further south and gets us on the Northern side of the Low, then I could see us getting more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Translate for me franklin can't quite zoom in Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For us in the W piedmont of NC/SC, to keep this an all snow event, we need the ULL to remain pos tilted until it crosses the MS river, else it's going to pull a stronger primary low up into the TN valley before hopping to the coast. It's very close to being a full throated Miller A coming out of the GOM if the wave digs just a little farther south. it has to dig like the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From GSPSimply amazeballs ! Let's hope the Southern trend can continue today! Was the 6z any further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still lots of spread in the models as of 6z. lets see what 12z does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still lots of spread in the models as of 6z. lets see what 12z does!99% look S of NC, that's good for y'all!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 99% look S of NC, that's good for y'all!? I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am making reservations at a hotel for friday night and saturday. I am leaning toward ice storm. As of right now if I had to bet, I'd bet the upstate gets a Ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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