WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 New thread. I waited for the 18z hoopla to die down. Really had no choice. We put up 10 pages last night from this point until morning. That might double tonight, putting us well over 50. I thought it was important to keep the 0z models together with tomorrow's 12z data. This is the m/l range thread, not a storm thread. Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Might have just jinxed it. New thread is like shaving in the playoffs. Honestly I thought everyone would find it easier. In times like this one day of runs can fill a thread. I figure by Tuesday someone will start a storm thread and then this one can finish out the month as the m/l thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LWX upped their outlook map: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like avg temps for the next bit. No big warm ups or deep freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Any update on 12z para EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Any update on 12z para EURO?It's in the other thread. It was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the thread where winter ends after the HECS now I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the thread where winter ends after the HECS now I suppose. gfs and eps like another window day 11-12 before we torch. Also the touch looks like it may be progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The big ones always have another event on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z Para GFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z Para GFS out yet?Nope, not yet. Here's the link to the para GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NCEP Operational Status Message Mon Jan 18 03:00:44 2016 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 180300 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0259Z MON JAN 18 2016 THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. 00Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP... 70414/SYA - PART B IS MISSING 78016/BDA - PART B MISSING FOR NAM...IN FOR GFS 76458/MZT - 10158 76692/HYY - 10158 HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP What does the Part B part mean? Can anyone explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I know no one is paying attention, but the LR GFS almost tries to do a repeat of this, it is unbelievably close to a carbon copy H5 setup, it obviously goes nuts and closes it off, but it is close lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I know no one is paying attention, but the LR GFS almost tries to do a repeat of this, it is unbelievably close to a carbon copy H5 setup, it obviously goes nuts and closes it off, but it is close lol... Good. Hopefully it is even bigger than the first. I want to have to exit my home through the second story windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 gfs and eps like another window day 11-12 before we torch. Also the touch looks like it may be progressive. Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. My total wag is the big trough in the west showing up on the ens will end up being some big cutter and then a step down right back to winter appeal. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Starting to see hints of the -ao/nao coming back after the relax. My total wag is the big trough in the west showing up on the ens will end up being some big cutter and then a step down right back to winter appeal. A 3-4 day warm stretch and then back to tracking if that. Seriously doubt a prolonged trough/west ridge east like Dec. im looking forward to the jan 28 storm more than this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 im looking forward to the jan 28 storm more than this one I know you're joking, but the 6Z GFS says let's shoot for round 2 on the 27th-28th. I will accept nothing less than a February 2010 one-two punch redux ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 After a recent spike, Enso 1&2 are finally crashing so hold on to your hats (and shovels!) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Since I'm almost guaranteed to miss this weekend's event, I'm invested in this thread. Please help me, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 6z GFS is advertising another massive hit 10 days out. If we can go back to back MECS. This winter would go from terrible to epic in a 10 day span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 6z GFS is advertising another massive hit 10 days out. If we can go back to back MECS. This winter would go from terrible to epic in a 10 day span. The glee in this subforum would be incredible. It's another beautiful depiction on the model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 After a recent spike, Enso 1&2 are finally crashing so hold on to your hats (and shovels!) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png February looks very wet and warm per CVS2. I wonder if we get a very warm week Feb 1-7, then it goes cold and wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSquid Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What does the Part B part mean? Can anyone explain? If I remember correctly, Part B were the winds at non-standard levels. Whenever certain criteria were hit (for example, height or a shift) it would mark a wind group (direction/speed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is v2 on the heels of this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Second storm looks like it would have a good track, but emerges as mostly rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah GFS has it warm (second storm) at this point. Honestly...can we trust anything until the first beast is out of the way? Nope. Certainly looks like it could be a fun week or two. My gut says we won't do back to back storms. Second one probably ends up as slop at least that's my gut feeling for now. Second storm H5 low does like right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro and gfs both have a day 9-10 storm that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro and gfs both have a day 9-10 storm that bears watching. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro and gfs both have a day 9-10 storm that bears watching. I saw that. Looks like the Euro is close to what we had yesterday. Perhaps get luckier this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Damn that's a skinny bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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