buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well I think it's come into range now with pretty good model agreement that there's a threat, favoring the OV as of now, but plenty of time for big shifts either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 ILN isn't taking the bait yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 ILN isn't taking the bait yet. Yea I saw that, no mention of precip at all. I thought they hugged the gfs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 as far as the 00z euro. The eps was right in line with the OP. The Para was north of the OP, and the Para EPS was WAY north as in Chicago to central MI hit. so quite a bit of stuff to be sorted out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 as far as the 00z euro. The eps was right in line with the OP. The Para was north of the OP, and the Para EPS was WAY north as in Chicago to central MI hit. so quite a bit of stuff to be sorted out yet. How were the individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well I think it's come into range now with pretty good model agreement that there's a threat, favoring the OV as of now, but plenty of time for big shifts either way. I knew there'd be a thread by today. Good to see it was started by an OH guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What the GFS is doing looks very plausible. The only thing I'll hang my hat on is the old "you don't want to be bullseyed 5 days out" adage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 What the GFS is doing looks very plausible. The only thing I'll hang my hat on is the old "you don't want to be bullseyed 5 days out" adage. ....yea that and "I'd rather be sitting outside the northern fringe than riding the 850 line this far out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What the GFS is doing looks very plausible. The only thing I'll hang my hat on is the old "you don't want to be bullseyed 5 days out" adage. There's room for the EC ridge to amplify given the lack of major blocking if the downstream PV moves out faster. The wave spacing sucks on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There's room for the EC ridge to amplify given the lack of major blocking if the downstream PV moves out faster. The wave spacing sucks on the 12z GFS. I heard the para eps was a hit here. Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yea looked a little fast to me. Will be fun to watch what this does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I heard the para eps was a hit here. Is that true? The Parallel-EPS mean looks similar to the 0z EPS which are mixed but centred south of the ohio river. The individual members are unavailable on wxbell AFAIK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Parallel-EPS mean looks similar to the 0z EPS which are mixed but centred south of the ohio river. The individual members are unavailable on wxbell AFAIK. I just checked, I was looking at the PARA control on Wxbell, not the ens.... but the prior does have the axis Chicago to central MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm hosed here. A trough going negative tilt as it hits the Mississippi is good for the Ohio River but it will somehow miss north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's a buckeye thread! Now I'm feeling good. Or maybe it's the 12z GEM model clown map with 14-16" over my house lolz Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro coming in North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Watching closely for those ticks north. Should be fun seeing this evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 slow and steady..... bottom is 00z top is 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 12z Euro naturally had a huge hit here and I'm now less cranky than when I made that post earlier. Still feel this is a thread the needle event for whoever gets hit. The models agree on a lot of QPF wherever that is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 12z Euro naturally had a huge hit here and I'm now less cranky than when I made that post earlier. Still feel this is a thread the needle event for whoever gets hit. The models agree on a lot of QPF wherever that is though. you're like a snow magnet for Athens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 you're like a snow magnet for Athens lol. If I may be a weenie here for a minute, I see a couple of rubs on a big north trend... The ridge is pretty far east over the west and not very stout...if the ridge trends stronger or backs back west there could be a phase far enough west for a big north trend, but right now it doesn't look great for that. The ensembles keep the shortwave neutrally tilted until it's east of the Mississippi which is a red flag for a big turn north west of the Apps. That look above also has some upper level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the storm Thursday evening which also argues against the storm getting really amplified and trending farther north. If the ridge over the west trends west or more stout locations farther north/west may be in luck...but right now my thinking is if this doesn't work out it's because there isn't a phase and we just get a STJ wave that slides off to the south. That vortex south of Greenland providing for the confluence back into the Mid Atlantic is what's left of our PV from earlier in the week. There will be a -NAO ahead of it and that vortex is pretty strong and closed off, so right now I have my doubts it gets out of the way and allows for a more north track. But we'll have to watch the ridge out west and see if it backs west farther and allows for an earlier phase which would open the door for a farther north track regardless...that's probably the best hope for those that want a track much farther north than currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i don't see any chance of this going far enough north to screw over OH at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i don't see any chance of this going far enough north to screw over OH at this pointI tend to agree but I'm probably in the easiest part of the state to get screwed, so I'm skeptical for MBY for now. But it has my interest. The Euro showing a foot would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking nice..and it's 4-5 days out instead of 8-10..Hopefully we can manage this one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm excited as this could be my first Ohio Snow Storm. I'm hoping it beats the 14 inches I got in North Texas back in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 eps is south of OP which isn't exactly unexpected. Last year there was a storm that showed the axis of heaviest snow going right thru central OH for several runs on all the modeling. Than inside of 3 or 4 days it began creeping north and yet the euro ens kept showing solutions further southeast. That storm ended up clocking Alek and Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For those of us further north, the lead clipper kind screws things up by lowering heights out ahead of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If I may be a weenie here for a minute, I see a couple of rubs on a big north trend... The ridge is pretty far east over the west and not very stout...if the ridge trends stronger or backs back west there could be a phase far enough west for a big north trend, but right now it doesn't look great for that. The ensembles keep the shortwave neutrally tilted until it's east of the Mississippi which is a red flag for a big turn north west of the Apps. That look above also has some upper level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the storm Thursday evening which also argues against the storm getting really amplified and trending farther north. If the ridge over the west trends west or more stout locations farther north/west may be in luck...but right now my thinking is if this doesn't work out it's because there isn't a phase and we just get a STJ wave that slides off to the south. That vortex south of Greenland providing for the confluence back into the Mid Atlantic is what's left of our PV from earlier in the week. There will be a -NAO ahead of it and that vortex is pretty strong and closed off, so right now I have my doubts it gets out of the way and allows for a more north track. But we'll have to watch the ridge out west and see if it backs west farther and allows for an earlier phase which would open the door for a farther north track regardless...that's probably the best hope for those that want a track much farther north than currently shown. Great analysis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 eps is south of OP which isn't exactly unexpected. Last year there was a storm that showed the axis of heaviest snow going right thru central OH for several runs on all the modeling. Than inside of 3 or 4 days it began creeping north and yet the euro ens kept showing solutions further southeast. That storm ended up clocking Alek and Josh. Surprised you didn't reference PDII. Snow swath on the 12z Euro looks a bit like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For those of us further north, the lead clipper kind screws things up by lowering heights out ahead of the main storm. I was also thinking with the clipper being right ahead of this main storm that it probably won't turn dramatically north ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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