Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 500mb analogs for the 1-5 day period were all over late Jan/early Feb 2010 in recent days. Still in the top. If nothing else gives a good idea of what the block will break down from. Interesting. Weren't they showing 1998 and 1983 a lot before (with more 1998)? Maybe that was more the medium range beyond 5 days, can't recall exactly. At any rate, at least those 1-5 day analogues have some nice company though I know it's not a predictive element per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty decent agreement there nj2va... can we take e6 to go please? Heh. I'd dine in and leave a healthy tip for that one! But seriously, many of those ensemble members look quite nice. A couple of real stinkers, but overall the good majority are good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GGEM clown map Sugarloaf Mountain Jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Interesting. Weren't they showing 1998 and 1983 a lot before (with more 1998)? Maybe that was more the medium range beyond 5 days, can't recall exactly. At any rate, at least those 1-5 day analogues have some nice company though I know it's not a predictive element per se. Well these are NH analogs by model from SV. I think the CPC are based on a different method. This is no 09-10 globally but the blocking configuration at present isn't that far off. The GFS ensembles are quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Time to get it together... Euro is starting. Feast or Famine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves. By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC. Fewer messy transfers vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps. considering last night 10/11 showed snow and the others showed a miss, this is great agreement, with now 19/22 showing some decent snow in the DC area. good signal but of course, things can and often do sometime change pretty quickly. wish it was Tuesday already... think we have a better idea by then on what the storm may or may not do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well these are NH analogs by model from SV. I think the CPC are based on a different method. This is no 09-10 globally but the blocking configuration at present isn't that far off. The GFS ensembles are quite nice. Thanks. Didn't realize those were different methods for computing the analogues, but makes sense. Yeah, it's nothing like '09-10 overall, but I can see how the general block might look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Time to get it together... Euro is starting. Feast or Famine I won't lie. I am a nervous wreck. We have been closer to game time and seen some ugly twists of fate with a no snow for you type change. People don't understand how we suffer for our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I won't lie. I am a nervous wreck. We have been closer to game time and seen some ugly twists of fate with a no snow for you type change. People don't understand how we suffer for our snow. Also considering the winter we have had so far... I do not think we have had a storm make it to the 5 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro? Can't check. That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro? Can't check. That bad? Out to 96 on WxBell... Matt/Ian may have it a bit faster on other sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro? Can't check. That bad? Wondering the same thing... I think we would hear either way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Models now are suggesting we get a little something late on Wednesday. Just a few days ago they were washing it out before it got to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro? Can't check. That bad? Looks ok to me at 96. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Out to 96 on WxBell... Matt/Ian may have it a bit faster on other sites 96 has SLP in NE TX... 1032 H in SD 102 has SLP S AR/N LA border 1010mb 108 -- 1006mb SLP N MS 114 -- 1004mb SLP N AL/ S TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 120Hr 1004mb in NW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT says it's "way south" vs. GFC/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This is another huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT says it's "way south" vs. GFC/CMC. Really? 120 has the 1003mb SLP in C TN and looks like its going to be a nice MA hit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Really? 120 has the SLP in C TN and looks like its going to be a nice MA hit for us It's actually in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd rather have it way south. Some of the models have the primary too far west to where the 850s become compromised maybe not so much for you guys in DC etc but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Really? 120 has the SLP in C TN and looks like its going to be a nice MA hit for us It's still a hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT says it's "way south" vs. GFC/CMC. Good, we need to get that swath of 3' the CMC showed in central PA down to over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Great run. Especially for Wes. Much less temp worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 996 near NC/VA border at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's actually in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Really? 120 has the SLP in C TN and looks like its going to be a nice MA hit for us Wasn't the primary SLP more in KY in the GFS and CMC before the transfer? Can't recall offhand, and too lazy (haha!) to look back at earlier discussion. So I guess that would be south of those two models, not sure about "way south" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd rather have it way south. Some of the models have the primary too far west to where the 850s become compromised maybe not so much for you guys in DC etc but.. Agreed though major shifts early in the game are also a yellow flag. Will see how the run plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21.png Looks like it's both TN and GA ("it's a dessert topping and a floor wax!" a'la that old SNL skit!)...primary in TN, and you can see the isobars bending through GA to along the SC/NC coast. I guess that's sort of the transfer part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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