mitchnick Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 CMC-UK both not even close to the GFS. And both have a colder snowier coastal for PA-Western MD Fri-Sat 12z runs of them are both out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 CMC-UK both not even close to the GFS. And both have a colder snowier coastal for PA-Western MD Fri-Sat Well, that is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 UK- GGEM has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 12z runs of them are both out? Yeah they come out really early on WSI and SV. CMC doesnt even have a closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GGEM Wave 2 and wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 UK- GGEM has nothing That doesn't look like 'nothing' to me...It wouldn't be a hit, but there is a nice curvature to the trough where it looks like a close enouigh solution to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Next frame on the UK looks like it goes east or near the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 UK- GGEM has nothing How is that "nothing"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 gfs gives me 10-12 inches of snow then ice for next fridays storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 How is that "nothing"? So this is something? UK is well offshore moves the trough in too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 gfs gives me 10-12 inches of snow then ice for next fridays storm congrats. the high is good so could certainly see a front end something. not sure I agree there's a lot of wiggle room tho. wouldn't take much to have the vort too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In the GFS world, this is exactly what we'd want to see. The parallel has a major upgrade to the data assimilation, and we'd hope that it might start to capture a tricky event like this sooner than the ops. Just need to get the 12z Euro to buy in. The problem is the Euro never makes big jumps, indeed it does seem to be slowly moving more in that direction the last 2 runs on some ensembles. But as we saw last January when the Euro is so far outside the other models it can take it 2 full days to catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 congrats. the high is good so could certainly see a front end something. not sure I agree there's a lot of wiggle room tho. wouldn't take much to have the vort too far north. thank man. In a year where we cant even get digital snow(i think we had 200 inches last year)...even the graphic makes me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GEFS ensemble mean track of the low for Sunday?Monday looks to be east of the operational GFS. The Canadian model still is a sheared out mess. Not sure I'd give the GFS much love right now in terms of probabilities unless the Euro moves considerably west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GEFS ensemble mean track of the low for Sunday?Monday looks to be east of the operational GFS. The Canadian model still is a sheared out mess. Not sure I'd give the GFS much love right now in terms of probabilities unless the Euro moves considerably west. Its a 999 SLP SE of HSE by about 200 miles... there were some decent hits in the 06z GFS individ ensembles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS Sunday/Monday DCA-.18" IAD-..13" BWI-.14" Annapolis-.20" mtn-.14" 10-1 ratios? Thats pretty decent QPF anyway... hope the 12z GFS individs are good and that the EURO at least tries to buy in at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll hug the top date for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The GEFS ensemble mean track of the low for Sunday?Monday looks to be east of the operational GFS. The Canadian model still is a sheared out mess. Not sure I'd give the GFS much love right now in terms of probabilities unless the Euro moves considerably west. Agreed Wes, though the 06Z para GFS adds some support. I'm sure Dr. Uccellini among others (myself included) are hoping once again that the GFS and GEFS lead the way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 10-1 ratios? Thats pretty decent QPF anyway... hope the 12z GFS individs are good and that the EURO at least tries to buy in at 12z Not even close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll hug the top date for now. 1998 is gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not even close! Better than 0.00 QPF.... I know we want more QPF, but as Wes/Ian/others have said, we kind of need more model support. GFS/GEFS by themselves for now... but UKIE has been jumping around some and GGEM has basically always been saying no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 1998 is gone! It's all over the day 8 centered from CPC tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So this is something? UK is well offshore moves the trough in too fast. So on that UK map you posted, there was no surface low or trough? AKA "nothing"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Agreed Wes, though the 06Z para GFS adds some support. I'm sure Dr. Uccellini among others (myself included) are hoping once again that the GFS and GEFS lead the way here You and everybody in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 GEFS mean is east of the op but definitely better than 6z 6z hr 108 12z 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ill take this one to go with extra sauce on the side ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here's the latest UKMET for SUnday morning. It's a tad farther south and east than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ill take this one to go with extra sauce on the side ... Over a foot for the region, I'd say most of us would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gefs looks like it has two main clusters. One near the 12 op and another farther s/e. Trend has been our friend, now let's see if the euro will play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here's the latest UKMET for SUnday morning. It's a tad farther south and east than the GFS. UKMET_Sunday.png It has something there at least. Of course not in the ideal position, but it lends support to the GFS idea of a s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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