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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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gfs gives me 10-12 inches of snow then ice  for next fridays storm

congrats. the high is good so could certainly see a front end something. not sure I agree there's a lot of wiggle room tho. wouldn't take much to have the vort too far north.

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In the GFS world, this is exactly what we'd want to see. The parallel has a major upgrade to the data assimilation, and we'd hope that it might start to capture a tricky event like this sooner than the ops.

Just need to get the 12z Euro to buy in.

The problem is the Euro never makes big jumps, indeed it does seem to be slowly moving more in that direction the last 2 runs on some ensembles. But as we saw last January when the Euro is so far outside the other models it can take it 2 full days to catch up

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congrats. the high is good so could certainly see a front end something. not sure I agree there's a lot of wiggle room tho. wouldn't take much to have the vort too far north.

thank man. In a year where we cant even get digital snow(i think we had 200 inches last year)...even the graphic makes me excited

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The GEFS ensemble mean track of the low for Sunday?Monday looks to be east of the operational GFS.   The Canadian model still is a sheared out mess.  Not sure I'd give the GFS much love right now in terms of probabilities unless the Euro moves considerably west.

 

Its a 999 SLP SE of HSE by about 200 miles... there were some decent hits in the 06z GFS individ ensembles though

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The GEFS ensemble mean track of the low for Sunday?Monday looks to be east of the operational GFS. The Canadian model still is a sheared out mess. Not sure I'd give the GFS much love right now in terms of probabilities unless the Euro moves considerably west.

Agreed Wes, though the 06Z para GFS adds some support. I'm sure Dr. Uccellini among others (myself included) are hoping once again that the GFS and GEFS lead the way here :)

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