*** UPDATED** DEC 31 INCREASING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM JAN 10-11

[DTWXRISK]

 and you all know   that about me ...

I dont bark for no  reason.... I dont forecast patterns changes   4  times before  it finally  shows  then claim  I was right  and I dont  bark  unless  you pull on my chain

if this is  right 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Extremely hostile December similar to 2006....check

Abrupt transition to another season entirely during January....check

Now we just need a blizzard and my verification trifecta will be complete. 

[Superstorm]

Weekend rule...check

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[Amped]

Weekend rule...check

Sent from my iPhone

Unless someone finds a theory that explains the weekend rule, it doesn't exist. There is no physical process makes snow more likely on weekends.

[DTWXRISK]

  SURE THERE  IS 

 

Unless someone finds a theory that explains the weekend rule, it doesn't exist. There is no physical process makes snow more likely on weekends.

[DTWXRISK]

 A  WEEKEND  EVENT   counts  as  an event that   begins  and or  lasts  thru the following  periods    
FRI  SAT  SUN  and or MON if it is a holiday

 

or   Friday into Saturday   Saturday into  Sunday Sunday into  Monday   and   all day Monday

 

  in the winter months    this can cover        xmas   xmas eve    New years  eve  Near Years  day   the  federal  Holiday 

   and President day 

 

 so  it is  3 of  7  days and sometimes  4 out of 7 days
in other words its a probability thing

 

[Amped]

 A  WEEKEND  EVENT   counts  as  an event that   begins  and or  lasts  thru the following  periods    

FRI  SAT  SUN  and or MON if it is a holiday

 

or   Friday into Saturday   Saturday into  Sunday Sunday into  Monday   and   all day Monday

 

  in the winter months    this can cover        xmas   xmas eve    New years  eve  Near Years  day   the  federal  Holiday 

   and President day 

 

 so  it is  3 of  7  days and sometimes  4 out of 7 days

in other words its a probability thing

 

 

Oh well if that's the rule than it makes sense.  We need a storm that starts on a Tuesday or Wednesday to break it. 2/10/10 still managed to do it.

[NaoPos]

A WEEKEND EVENT counts as an event that begins and or lasts thru the following periods

FRI SAT SUN and or MON if it is a holiday

or Friday into Saturday Saturday into Sunday Sunday into Monday and all day Monday

in the winter months this can cover xmas xmas eve New years eve Near Years day the federal Holiday

and President day

so it is 3 of 7 days and sometimes 4 out of 7 days

in other words its a probability thing

Lol. Why not just say there's a legit Y" rule? It could happen on any day that ends in Y.......

[DTWXRISK]

0Z   DEC 31  EURO   ensembles  are very strong with the signal for east coast winter storm JAN 10-11   as the over pattern and teleconnections  have been screaming  this for   days 

 

 

  followed by  a blast of   TRUE ARCTIC AIR 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WeatherFox]

I tip my hat to Dave for his meteorological knowledge and business acumen (so like many here I always hope he is right).  Anyone involved in following the weather from weenie to meteorologist knows the challenges of long range and sometimes even short term weather forecasting.  Below is the NWS, NYC long range (seven days out) thinking of upcoming precipitation and temperature.

 

...COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A POTENTIAL RAIN OR SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THINKING THIS SYSTEM WILL
PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO A GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE
LIFTING TO OUR NW USUALLY YIELDING A SCENARIO WITH LARGELY PLAIN
RAIN. THIS IS STILL A DAY 7 FORECAST SO UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AND
HAVE ONLY INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE POSSIBLY FOLLOWING
IN ITS HEELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

[WeatherFox]

Today's 1/4/16, NWS long range thinking for NYC:  My purpose of reporting this information is for all to see the challenge of weather forecasting in the medium to long range and how things may or will change from day to day and can even bust when all is said an done.

 

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. WARM AIR

ADVECTION RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH

SAT...ALTHOUGH THE RETREATING HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN

COLD AIR DAMMING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX OF

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO START. SHOULD TURN TO PLAIN

RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF QPF REMAINS

IN QUESTIONS AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRES TO

DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND

ON SAT. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO

SUN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY END UP SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE

THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM TRACKS UP FROM THE S. THIS SYSTEM

CURRENTLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...BUT IF THE UPPER

PATTERN CHANGES AND THE STORM SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE...IT

P-TYPE COULD BE MIXED OR IN SOLID FORM. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR MONDAY. 

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER

OF THE PERIOD.

[forkyfork]

the east coast is more likely to see tornadoes than snowfall if the 12z euro is correct

[nycwinter]

the east coast is more likely to see tornadoes than snowfall if the 12z euro is correct

the euro was certainly  correct about the 2 feet blizzard that was going to hit nyc last year NOT....

[Cheeznado]

So, as is often the case with a 10-14 day "forecast" this was terrible. That is why I never attempt to do anything beyond a week, and even that is dicey.

[WeatherFox]

So, as is often the case with a 10-14 day "forecast" this was terrible. That is why I never attempt to do anything beyond a week, and even that is dicey.

Agree, 100%.   And just for continuity I will post the 1/5/16 NWS - NYC forecast discussions, as we are now with-in the five day forecast window.  After reading the NWS discussion you can see from the comments of the forecaster there is a "fair degree of uncertainly", "it is very difficult to say which model is correct", " and there is not enough to hang you hat on either" for the weekend forecast. 

 

....LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE H5 FLOW IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT DIFFERENCES

REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION

BETWEEN A LARGE CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMNANT ENERGY

MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS ELONGATED E-W ORIENTED VORTEX WILL

BECOME N-S ORIENTED WITH A COLDER AIRMASS DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN

PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS VORTEX WILL

THEN MEANDER ABOUT ERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NOT MUCH HAS BEEN RESOLVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A FAIR DEGREE

OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST DETAILS THIS WEEKEND. IT

CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...BUT UNTIL THINGS ARE BETTER RESOLVED

PREFER NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EC CONTINUES TO BREAK A PIECE OF ENERGY OFF OF THE PARENT UPPER

LOW AS IT DIVES DOWN THE WEST SIDE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS IS

RESULTING IN A MUCH FURTHER SRN TRACK OF THE REMNANT ENERGY MOVING

INTO THE PLAINS AND THUS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE

APPALACHIANS AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE

UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY BUT KEEPS THE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WEST

SIDE IN TACT WITH THE PARENT LOW...THUS RESULTING IN A FURTHER

NORTHERNTRACK OF THE REMNANT ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND

THEN THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. UNTIL THIS IS RESOLVED

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ALTHOUGH

INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISPLAY ABOUT AS MUCH SCATTER AS 24

HRS AGO. SO THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT...JUST NOT ENOUGH TO HANG

YOUR HAT ON EITHER WAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CHILLY THU NIGHT WITH GOOD

RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRI WITH HIGH PRES IN

CONTROL. WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT

THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH THE RETREATING HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL

RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX OF

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO SAT MORNING. SHOULD TURN

TO PLAIN RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT LOW

CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH WE MAY

END UP SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT IN THE WARM

SECTOR. THE AMOUNT OF QPF REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE

DIFFERENCES IN TRACK PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SUNDAYS SYSTEM

CURRENTLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY AND

THEN FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

[A-L-E-K]

looking good for wisconsin

[dmc76]

Congrats NW lower Michigan.

Buried!!

[SouthCoastMA]

1/13-16 is the time to look at

[Ltrain]

Woof Woof Aleeeeeet!

[WeatherFox]

1/13-16 is the time to look at

Could be, "everything is about timing" for a NYC snow storm.  For most of the time having cold air in place and a strong low moving up thru the 40/70 benchmark and viola!

[ohleary]

1/13-16 is the time to look at

 

not sure if serious or just trolling

[eyewall]

LOL bump trolling at its best.

[DTWXRISK]

 You  arent trolling The event  isnt   JAN 111-2  its comign in Much faster  jan 9-10  so the  arctic front   that coems in on jan 11    doesnt  f do any good


ewall, on 07 Jan 2016 - 11:59 AM, said:

 

LOL bump trolling at its best.

[DTWXRISK]

NOTICE  when the12Z GFS   came out   with the jan 12-13 threat for the Mioddle atlantic I did NOT  " bite"

 

Woof Woof Aleeeeeet!

[DTWXRISK]

  nah   not really

 

So, as is often the case with a 10-14 day "forecast" this was terrible. That is why I never attempt to do anything beyond a week, and even that is dicey.