donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 it will probably hit 70 again in February if the ao/nao is very positive like it was in December...Hopefully that won't happen... Hopefully, that won't happen. With respect to an AO+/EPO+/PNA+ setup in super El Niño cases, below are 500 mb and temperature anomalies for the composites and the 240-hour EPS means: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hopefully, that won't happen. With respect to an AO+/EPO+/PNA+ setup in super El Niño cases, below are 500 mb and temperature anomalies for the composites and the 240-hour EPS means: How is that a +PNA with such troughing/low heights out west? Most people think of a +PNA as having a ridge over the Rockies extending towards a mid-latitude block over the PAC that keeps maritime air out of the CONUS. Besides, why is the West so cold in the +PNA depicted? Not sure why this map is labeled as a +PNA given the features shown.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's based on the indices. The PNA ranged from +0.214 to +1.960 during the dates on which the composites were based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 How is that a +PNA with such troughing/low heights out west? Most people think of a +PNA as having a ridge over the Rockies extending towards a mid-latitude block over the PAC that keeps maritime air out of the CONUS. Besides, why is the West so cold in the +PNA depicted? Not sure why this map is labeled as a +PNA given the features shown.... Lower anomalies south of ak than over the yukon and nwt. Take a look at the loading pattern on esrl youll see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lower anomalies south of ak than over the yukon and nwt. Take a look at the loading pattern on esrl youll see it.I understand the technicalities of the longitudinal and latitudinal boxes and the loading pattern for the PNA, but this is more of a case of such low heights near AK that anything else seems positive. There is no defined western ridge, nor a mid-latitude block shutting off mild Pacific air from entering the CONUS. For all intents and purposes, this resembles a -PNA in terms of the sensible weather: cold, wet west and a drier and warmer east.What remains to be seen is whether this regime coming in late Jan/early Feb can be serviceable further north in New England and the upper Mid Atlantic. The obvious advantage is the strong STJ and storminess during the coldest climo of winter; however, New England does much better with a traditional Bermuda ridge to the southeast and lower heights near Hudson Bay establishing a gradient rather than the higher heights to the north which may cement the low snow cover, dry pattern. If this pattern is to take us to mid February, those hoping for near climo snowfall must hope that the regime is indeed serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 HRRR insists on two hours of light snow in the city, from 4-6 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Greatest AO reversal from positive in November and December to negative in January. It went from +4.503 on December 22nd to -4.800..-4.900 today. We can thank the assist from the near to record Kara block which spread out across the Arctic over to Greenland. Fantastic animation from the CPC. So this is our second winter extreme this year following the historic December warmth. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Greatest AO reversal from positive in November and December to negative in January. It went from +4.503 on December 22nd to -4.800..-4.900 today. We can thank the assist from the near to record Kara block which spread out across the Arctic over to Greenland. Fantastic animation from the CPC. So this is our second winter extreme this year following the historic December warmth. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml ao.obs.gif Looks like the pattern was just slow to materialize . You may get your IVT trough light snows today out on LI . A week of BN . Then the area probably sees it's first snowstorm next weekend while the Euro ensembles have an EC day 11 system before the pullback . Would love to pull this one out of the hat and see the good period opined about verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This morning's AO was -4.916. That's the lowest AO figure since March 22, 2013 when the AO was -5.240. In cases where the AO dropped to -4.000 or below at this time of January, February typically featured a lot of blocking. More immediately, an AO-/PNA+ pattern promotes a higher frequency of measurable snowfalls in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. As the pattern has potential and there has been some increased support for the idea of a storm that could impact parts of the area in the January 23-24 timeframe, I took a look at all snowstorms that brought at least 4" snow to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC (1950-2015) on January 23 +/- 15 days. I then filtered the sample for the forecast AO and PNA values. Below is the breakdown of such storms by amount in the above four cities: Nothing is guaranteed just yet. All of the above cities had at least one case among those storms where they did not receive any snowfall. But if a moderate or greater snowfall occurs, especially given the ongoing El Niño, somewhere from Philadelphia to Boston (including adjacent interior sections) might have the best chance to receive a significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This morning's AO was -4.916. That's the lowest AO figure since March 22, 2013 when the AO was -5.240. In cases where the AO dropped to -4.000 or below at this time of January, February typically featured a lot of blocking. More immediately, an AO-/PNA+ pattern promotes a higher frequency of measurable snowfalls in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. As the pattern has potential and there has been some increased support for the idea of a storm that could impact parts of the area in the January 23-24 timeframe, I took a look at all snowstorms that brought at least 4" snow to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC (1950-2015) on January 23 +/- 15 days. I then filtered the sample for the forecast AO and PNA values. Below is the breakdown of such storms by amount in the above four cities: Nothing is guaranteed just yet. All of the above cities had at least one case among those storms where they did not receive any snowfall. But if a moderate or greater snowfall occurs, especially given the ongoing El Niño, somewhere from Philadelphia to Boston (including adjacent interior sections) might have the best chance to receive a significant snowfall. the first snowstorm in 1965-66 although partly tainted was on January 23rd-24th...then three more events in two weeks including the KU east coast snowstorm on the 30th...I had a bunch of el nino winters that started slow and peaked in February...1965-66 was near the average of those analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks uncle, bluewave, and don for all the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 only ten winters since 1950 had a lower ao than todays number...If this is the winters lowest ao number at least we are seeing some wintry weather today...Not a big e but a start... winter.......AO min. date... 1976-77...-7.433...01/15/1977... 1969-70...-6.365...03/05/1970 1984-85...-6.226...01/19/1985 2009-10...-5.821...12/21/2009 2012-13...-5.688...03/20/2013 1977-78...-5.291...02/05/1978 1968-69...-5.282...02/13/1969 2010-11...-5.172...12/18/2010 1965-66...-5.130...01/28/1966 1962-63...-5.010...01/21/1963 2015-16...-4.916...01/17/2016 2000-01...-4.854...02/25/2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is BN every single day of the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Heavy snow west orange nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Light snow now, got a quick dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Very nice squall coming through here now, the Park dropped to 23 when the snow came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nice band for Brooklyn and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Must be closing in on half an inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Was snowing moderately when driving between Rockaway Borough and Parsippany on 46.. and started decreasing after I got on 287 North. Pretty much no snow after I passed Boonton.. and not much at all on ground up here in Mahwah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Beautiful winter wonderland here. More unexpected snow than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Light to moderate snow now with everything covered. I was not expecting this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Beautiful winter wonderland here. More unexpected snow than yesterday. I think we had more yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Light to moderate snow now with everything covered. I was not expecting this at all. nice streamer hitting northern S.I. and southern Brooklyn...nothing where I'm at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we had more yesterday I had more this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think we had more yesterday With the temperature down to 22 it was sticking to the sidewalks and pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From the snow this morning, I am finally over 1 inch of snow for the winter =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 HRRR takes us down to 15 tomorrow morning. NAM to 14. Is it radiational cooling and wrong, or is it CAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 HRRR takes us down to 15 tomorrow morning. NAM to 14. Is it radiational cooling and wrong, or is it CAA? If that is NYC proper, it certainly isn't radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Park at 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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