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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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We're into the time of year a good track is all that really matters if you want something to watch. Can still get screwed but another issue is we often look for a 'perfect pattern' even with plenty of good storms that happen outside of them.  Lack of cold is certainly an issue early.. pattern shakeup maybe but looks kind of similar. ;)

 

VLji9Ay.png

 

Of course there's a big cold dump advertised after which seemingly will happen to some degree. I wonder how much we're going to just keep seeing cold then warmish storms though. Kind of a strong Nino trademark.

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Man, euro really pumps up some sick height anoms in the ao/nao domains.

Sure does. GEFS continues to look good in the LR. We just have to be patient. With that kind of block, if it verifies, mean storm track should be more to our liking. Agree with psuhoffman's post above. We just aren't there yet, so likely we are going to have to endure a couple warmish rainers.

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I think we are excited because the h5 setup looks good but those analogs dont account for all the times we had a similar setup and it failed. The problem to me is there is no cold in front yet. The shot early this week is transient then we warm as the trough axis is still to our west. That creates a few problems. These storms want to ride the baroclinic zone along the thermal boundary. So that wants to take them more west. Then even if the storm tracks to our south it's a stj system is there is no connection to the cold until it's north of us. We really need to wait until the cold gets in and the block is established to hold it then see what comes at us from the stj. Until then it probably would take a fluke and perfect track/intensity to get anything.

So I have to wonder how long that's gonna take! Perhaps middle of the month or later?
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MSLP panels do look great but digging through the ind members show all kinds of temp problems and few snow storms in the mix. Looks better nw like Winwxluvr land but right now it looks pretty rough for the cities. Lots of lead time still of course.

 

Elevation storm - what else is new, Bob ;)

But yes plenty of time. I'm just glad it's not 75 degrees anymore. I am NOT a member of the "if it's not going to snow let it be warm" crew. I want winter to be winter-like. 

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Def still looks more like an interior event on the Euro ens given lack of a lot of cold plus in many cases the closeness to the coast etc. But I wouldn't bet we know the temp picture just yet. That first sys is helping warm it up on some runs for one and it seems to be less of an event overall today than in prior. We don't need major cold in Jan either just enough.

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Def still looks more like an interior event on the Euro ens given lack of a lot of cold plus in many cases the closeness to the coast etc. But I wouldn't bet we know the temp picture just yet. That first sys is helping warm it up on some runs for one and it seems to be less of an event overall today than in prior. We don't need major cold in Jan either just enough.

 

That's for sure - pretty mundane cold can perform - but as is always the case we still can go wrong too many ways.

Also general question that seemed to fit best in this thread (Ian or anyone can answer)

 

I'm just now getting into thumbing through my KU book. Definitely realizing there's a ton of content in there...is there any specific parts that you would focus on if you HAD to read a certain part?

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That's for sure - pretty mundane cold can perform - but as is always the case we still can go wrong too many ways.

Also general question that seemed to fit best in this thread (Ian or anyone can answer)

 

I'm just now getting into thumbing through my KU book. Definitely realizing there's a ton of content in there...is there any specific parts that you would focus on if you HAD to read a certain part?

Which one is that? Google keeps giving me the University.

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Thought so! Let me pull mine out to see where I highlighted stuff. I got mine last year. :)

I got mine in 2011 and it's largely been sitting dormant on a shelf. I broke it out after Bob Chill and the others have been talking so much about the pattern. 

It's a ton of content and it's overwhelming to me! I know generals like what general patterns to look at for H5 but beyond that I'm pretty stupid ;)

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I got mine in 2011 and it's largely been sitting dormant on a shelf. I broke it out after Bob Chill and the others have been talking so much about the pattern. 

It's a ton of content and it's overwhelming to me! I know generals like what general patterns to look at for H5 but beyond that I'm pretty stupid ;)

No judgment from me. I'll keep editing this post as I find new topics...

  1. The Southern Oscillation pg 28-35
  2. Cyclone Paths and Redevelopment pg 46-78 (lots of pictures)
  3. n hours prior to heavy snow development pg 85-131 (multiple good sections)

That's the meat of the easier to read stuff. Enjoy!

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The trailing low on the 12th can still bring us some snow, we need the northern stream to get out of the way and the southern stream to cut off. Since the high is too far west to deliver a quick cold shot and  there is too much ridging over the Bahamas for a strong negative tilt over Georgia, this will be difficult.

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