Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Lol. Fun fact. We have a Christmas in July festival where I live every year, and it was warmer today then it was for the frstival. But on a more depressing note, how often does the weather agree with long range forecasts? I think saying the pattern is going to change before early January might be pushing it. Wow, it was in the 60s in Jefferson, NC today. Don't tell me it was in the 50s in July ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I feel confident in the pattern changing by then. I just looked at the Euro ensembles/control and they look nice by end of December, setting up good blocking at the end of the run. This is late December and the CFS as well as analogs show a similar evolution. It's hard to go against a combo of analogs and long range models showing the same type of pattern evolving. I've been saying since November that we would have a warm December then cold January and February. I made a winter forecast on a fb page that my friend and I collaborated on together. So far November and the first part of December have verified nicely and I really think January/February will be cold for many here. Here is a link to our forecast made November 6th and the simplified reasoning behind it.Lol the control. The EPS looks about as bad as you can get in the day 10-15 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Lol the control. The EPS looks about as bad as you can get in the day 10-15 range What is the EPS? I am not familiar with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Ummmm...this is going to take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Ummmm...this is going to take a while. We got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 What is the EPS? I am not familiar with that model.European Ensemble...stands for Ensemble Prediction System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 For those more meteorological than I, who doesn't really know about Kelvin waves and SOI's and SST connections, this is for you... NOAA’s latest El Niño outlook released Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Ummmm...this is going to take a while. We have 19 days before the anal logs say to worry, so that's plenty of time! It's funny how we all hated the cfsv2 when JB was all about it and it was never right and now we hug it cause it's the ONLY thing giving us a twinkle of hope for Jam on it January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We have 19 days before the anal logs say to worry, so that's plenty of time! It's funny how we all hated the cfsv2 when JB was all about it and it was never right and now we hug it cause it's the ONLY thing giving us a twinkle of hope for Jam on it January! CFS for Jan looks like more of the same? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151212.201601.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I feel confident in the pattern changing by then. I just looked at the Euro ensembles/control and they look nice by end of December, setting up good blocking at the end of the run. This is late December and the CFS as well as analogs show a similar evolution. It's hard to go against a combo of analogs and long range models showing the same type of pattern evolving. I've been saying since November that we would have a warm December then cold January and February. I made a winter forecast on a fb page that my friend and I collaborated on together. So far November and the first part of December have verified nicely and I really think January/February will be cold for many here. Here is a link to our forecast made November 6th and the simplified reasoning behind it. That's a good read. I hope you end up correct. We'll find out soon enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Him and Robert are at the beach, talking historic winter business , while getting a suntan! Had a high today of 73 and had a dp of 61 at one point! So this is what Christmas in July is really all about! You mean hi$toric winter bui$ne$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Lol the control. The EPS looks about as bad as you can get in the day 10-15 range Ummmm...this is going to take a while. Here are the strong & moderate El Nino Decembers that were warm going back to the monster nino of 1877-1878 Now here is the pattern from the superensemble forecast analogs for the 6-10 day forecast period. We are getting the warm Dec nino pattern of ++AO/++NAO/++EPO...but what's perplexing is that we are also getting a La Nina Aleutian ridge feature which is an additional warm signal that teleconnects to SE ridging. In fact, 6 of the 10 analog dates on the map are from La Nina winters, double the number of El Nino analog dates. So indeed, this is a warm pattern for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Rubberband Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Rubberband It melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Rubberband Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Here are the strong & moderate El Nino Decembers that were warm going back to the monster nino of 1877-1878 Now here is the pattern from the superensemble forecast analogs for the 6-10 day forecast period. We are getting the warm Dec nino pattern of ++AO/++NAO/++EPO...but what's perplexing is that we are also getting a La Nina Aleutian ridge feature which is an additional warm signal that teleconnects to SE ridging. In fact, 6 of the 10 analog dates on the map are from La Nina winters, double the number of El Nino analog dates. So indeed, this is a warm pattern for the ages. Seriously we have a chance at the warmest winter in recorded history at least states in the east. If that pattern remains locked thru Feb this could be one for the books. The year without a winter. Sux for what we want but cool say we were part of it..unless this is a new trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Lol the control. The EPS looks about as bad as you can get in the day 10-15 range Not really. Individual panels show the ridge moving further east and north with the trough near Texas. As we get closer it will become clear but the overall trend is encouraging. Also you have the 45 day meteograms from the new high res Euro indicating the cold beginning between January 4-10th, depending on which ensemble you look at. CFS has been trending better/colder for January as well. There is a large amount of data indicating a better pattern around the corner. GFS tries to split the PV and Euro begins to elongate/weaken it at D10, another key factor. Everything is coming together as planned and in my winter forecast from November 6th I mentioned how many would be saying "winter cancel" by mid December, and here we are, with everyone giving up before winter even officially starts. I have a feeling come early January many here will be far more optimistic and getting very little sleep as we begin to have potential threats to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Here is an excellent read about the warm pattern we've seen thus far and how it should unfold in January. Click here to read the full article/discussion from this forecaster. It goes without saying that many who wish for "real winter weather" in the United States are deeply troubled by the very warm December temperatures so far. Many unfairly are pointing fingers at the El Nino episode, which actually is not behaving according to synoptic climatology for such events. The Pacific Northwest continues to see excessive precipitation, while California and Florida have largely missed out on the excessive rainfall cases seen in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the previous periods that featured a very high-end +ENSO signal. The polar westerlies remain unified, and dominant, which is much more like what should occur in a well-defined "La Nina" influenced pattern in the colder months over North America. Curiously, conditions across Eurasia are performing fairly close to weather that transpires with an El Nino (split flow, colder northern third with occasional spillages of cPk and cA regimes into the Middle East and Indus Valley). So the operative question that is bandied about: are we really going to miss winter this time around? Has "global warming" conspired with the "Super El Nino" to chase away Santa for snow lovers in the U.S. The answer is no, Virginia! The warm December was forecast well by the analog method used here (no snow in Buffalo, and in fact total lack of ice over the entire Great Lakes). And there are very valid reasons for a "for real" change in the jet stream configuration across the entire continent once we move deeper into January. First of all, I should clarify what I think is causing the display of mild temperatures and the unusual array of precipitation in the lower 48 states. It is not El Nino. Rather, the dominant driver in this configuration is the immense circumpolar vortex (see 10MB temperature forecasts), which has fairly evenly covered the Arctic Circle up to this point after congealing in October. This +AO phase is impressive, no doubt. Such a strong cAk gyre blots out any and all chances for lasting blocking ridge formation above 50 N Latitude. But research on the subject shows that long-lived and intense circulations straddling the North Pole cannot go on forever. And I suspect that cracks in the vortex will show up soon, given what the numerical models are projecting as a shift in the skew of the frigid circulation toward northern Europe and western Russia. Another factor to consider is the very warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. It is not just the El Nino signal; check out the Atlantic Basin (excepting near the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap) and the entirety of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The atmosphere has been responding by moderating its boundary layer readings. But with a low sun angle and increasing snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere, something has got to give. With the aforementioned stratospheric warming in the western third of North America, and the still vigorous subtropical jet stream crossing Mexico into the Old South (forced there by the anomalous Southeast heat ridge), a mean 500MB trough should start to form between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia during the first week of January. It continues to be my thinking that a +PNA/-AO configuration will take shape next month, with the risk of major storms tracking along the Gulf Coast and then up along or off the Eastern Seaboard. That means drainage of air from Canada and the snowpack which is expanding across our northern neighbor. Until that time, I can assure you that the 11 - 15 day period, and probably most of the 16 - 20 day range, will again be a cold/cool West vs. mild/warm East alignment. Storms should still roll through the Pacific Northwest into the lower High Plains, than recurve into Michigan and Ontario. A key flashpoint in the last week of December and first week of January is snow cover in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. If we indeed are going to see a colder turn in the New Year, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the MI Upper Peninsula will see more of the white stuff as we greet 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Finally the CFS spits out something positive, well atleast in the positive direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It has been trying to retrograde things back west out in the Pacific as we get into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Saw an interesting story about a full moon on Christmas this year! First time since 1977 and won't be another until 2034( the same year a -NAO returns) ! So maybe we can channel that '77 mojo, to help save this dumpster fire!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Not out of question Greensboro never gets above 39 for the high next weekend, beleive Sunday would be the day. Plus pretty good chance the mtns of NC should see some upslope. I know it's progressive but it sure beats day after day of 60 to 70 degree weather. Let's see if the strongest storm as far as pressure goes affects the weather pattern week of Christmas. That's a monster historic storm moving poleward approaching the artic circle. You'd think the polar vortex is bound to get heavily disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Not out of question Greensboro never gets above 39 for the high next weekend, beleive Sunday would be the day. Plus pretty good chance the mtns of NC should see some upslope. I know it's progressive but it sure beats day after day of 60 to 70 degree weather. Let's see if the strongest storm as far as pressure goes affects the weather pattern week of Christmas. That's a monster historic storm moving poleward approaching the artic circle. You'd think the polar vortex is bound to get heavily disrupted. Definitely something to watch. Usually before a pattern change we see a monster storm or a series of them. A few GFS runs hinted at one right after Christmas that would definitely shake the pattern up. December 28-30th is the timeframe to watch for a pattern changing storm or series of them. PV looks majorly disrupted at D10 of the Euro and GFS tries to split it past that range so good signs pointing to the release of colder air for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Not out of question Greensboro never gets above 39 for the high next weekend, beleive Sunday would be the day. Plus pretty good chance the mtns of NC should see some upslope. I know it's progressive but it sure beats day after day of 60 to 70 degree weather. Let's see if the strongest storm as far as pressure goes affects the weather pattern week of Christmas. That's a monster historic storm moving poleward approaching the artic circle. You'd think the polar vortex is bound to get heavily disrupted. I think that strongest pressure storm ever I wy the op GFS looks different every run...this last one said raging warmth on Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I may have been wrong in saying this current stretch will be warmest of season, day 10+ is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I may have been wrong in saying this current stretch will be warmest of season, Pacbacker is nuts.FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Funny how when a model shows something 10 days (or less) out in a storm or even cold temps, we say "fantasy land" and are sure it will change, but when it shows record warmth, gospel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Funny how when a model shows something 10 days (or less) out in a storm or even cold temps, we say "fantasy land" and are sure it will change, but when it shows record warmth, gospel Agree 100%. The warm bias is incredible this month, I can't wait to get into a favorable pattern. On one hand you can't blame them, on the other we know this month would be hot so "what else you got?"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Funny how when a model shows something 10 days (or less) out in a storm or even cold temps, we say "fantasy land" and are sure it will change, but when it shows record warmth, gospel As I recall, hell is referenced throughout the gospel, but manna only fell from heaven once ... correlation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Haven't seen it posted yet but the CANSIPS for January looks nice. It shows the pattern which I think will be dominant throughout most of the month. It forecasted the warm east vs cold west pretty well on its November 1st run for December, it's verifying nicely so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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