We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Interesting discussion from the NHC.  Points out the uncertainty about the intensity forecast for Joaquin.  Could be anywhere between a strong tropical storm or major hurricane.

[ineedsnow]

Someone is going to come in with a pretty epic total this set up is awesome

[weatherwiz]

Interesting discussion from the NHC.  Points out the uncertainty about the intensity forecast for Joaquin.  Could be anywhere between a strong tropical storm or major hurricane.

 

Is the shear over the western Atlantic supportive of this possibility though?  Unless I'm wrong I didn't think shear was terribly supportive of such type of intensification and even moisture seemed sort of meh...especially b/c it appears the system will eventually be drawing in a good deal of dry air.  

[OceanStWx]

Interesting discussion from the NHC.  Points out the uncertainty about the intensity forecast for Joaquin.  Could be anywhere between a strong tropical storm or major hurricane.

 

To be fair, it's really just the HWRF that's showing a major hurricane (and it just barely reaches Cat 3 at that). Everything else seems to be on board with slow, steady strengthening through about 120 hours. It is important to note that the official intensity forecast is on the lower end of that spectrum.

 

[OceanStWx]

Is the shear over the western Atlantic supportive of this possibility though?  Unless I'm wrong I didn't think shear was terribly supportive of such type of intensification and even moisture seemed sort of meh...especially b/c it appears the system will eventually be drawing in a good deal of dry air.  

 

I think the best chance for strengthening probably needs to come from a hybrid transition like Sandy, versus a purely tropical process. I just can't see it avoiding enough synoptic interaction to develop like that. So that HWRF intensity forecast seems a real outlier to me. At the same time, as I said above, there are plenty of models that have slow, steady strengthening to an intensity higher than the NHC forecast.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Actually the NHC has upped their top intensity forecast from 50mph at 5pm to 65mph at 11pm.  They also mentioned that shear is the only inhibitor but given current satellite imagery, Joaquin looks very healthy compared to 3 hours ago with 20 knots of shear impacting it.  However models develop a large upper level anticyclone over Joaquin as he nears the East Coast.  700mb and relative humidity levels are near very good for this system as well.  Half of the 00z hurricane model intensity guidance indicated a hurricane was possible by hour 96.  Even 120 hours out the system has yet to make landfall according to the NHC projected track, so he has over 120 hours over very warm waters, that will only help it more.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Also outflow is expanding on the east side, the west side and south side of the cyclone.  Only the north side is under scrutiny as northwesterly shear still impinging on its north side.  However this should relax after 24 hours according to the EURO and GFS.

[weatherwiz]

I think the best chance for strengthening probably needs to come from a hybrid transition like Sandy, versus a purely tropical process. I just can't see it avoiding enough synoptic interaction to develop like that. So that HWRF intensity forecast seems a real outlier to me. At the same time, as I said above, there are plenty of models that have slow, steady strengthening to an intensity higher than the NHC forecast.

 

I agree...in fact, I just mentioned that to someone a little bit ago.  It just seems like this system is going to interact with the trough/front earlier in the game as opposed to later and once that occurs the transition from a more tropical system to hybrid will rapidly occur.  This certainly doesn't mean though a decent wind threat can't develop...and if we do see a long duration system even 45-55 mph gusts can wreck havoc as we saw just a few years back.    

[OceanStWx]

Actually the NHC has upped their top intensity forecast from 50mph at 5pm to 65mph at 11pm.  They also mentioned that shear is the only inhibitor but given current satellite imagery, Joaquin looks very healthy compared to 3 hours ago with 20 knots of shear impacting it.  However models develop a large upper level anticyclone over Joaquin as he nears the East Coast.  700mb and relative humidity levels are near very good for this system as well.  Half of the 00z hurricane model intensity guidance indicated a hurricane was possible by hour 96.  Even 120 hours out the system has yet to make landfall according to the NHC projected track, so he has over 120 hours over very warm waters, that will only help it more.

 

I'm aware of the NHC intensity forecast, and 55 knots is still on the lower envelope of guidance at this hour. But marginally so, considering most bring it to around 65 knots in the 96 hour time frame. I would say  you better hope it's a hurricane by 120 hours, otherwise it isn't going to happen. Too many negatives for intensification at that point and position.

[ORH_wxman]

If that were to be the case some areas could get nailed.  One aspect with this system that could come into play is the potential for quite a long duration of heavy rains.  There are several ingredients presented that suggest this could be one slow moving system and as long as the moisture inflow doesn't get shut off this system will crank out precip.  

 

Also, some of the areas of interest for this weekend or among some of the same areas which could get the jackpot tomorrow through Wednesday.  

 

Yes, which is why we need to watch the BL wind flow and mid-level wind strength/duration. There's a pretty consistent pattern of bulleyes over SNE in slow moving setups that are determined by the flow in the BL and mid-levels. Southerly tends to hit the CT Valley hard while NE flow in the BL tends to really hammer SE NH to E MA.

[OceanStWx]

I agree...in fact, I just mentioned that to someone a little bit ago.  It just seems like this system is going to interact with the trough/front earlier in the game as opposed to later and once that occurs the transition from a more tropical system to hybrid will rapidly occur.  This certainly doesn't mean though a decent wind threat can't develop...and if we do see a long duration system even 45-55 mph gusts can wreck havoc as we saw just a few years back.    

 

Cyclone phase diagrams are all over the place right now. Everything from purely tropical (GFDL) to cold core (GFS). Some make a pit stop, or end up in an asymmetric warm core system, which appears to be why the HWRF keeps intensity so high through landfall.

[weatherwiz]

Yes, which is why we need to watch the BL wind flow and mid-level wind strength/duration. There's a pretty consistent pattern of bulleyes over SNE in slow moving setups that are determined by the flow in the BL and mid-levels. Southerly tends to hit the CT Valley hard while NE flow in the BL tends to really hammer SE NH to E MA.

 

Whenever areas in southern NH or even eastern MA get hit hard it seems like they really get pounded...I mean going back over the years and looking at some of the significant flooding events we've had those areas always seem to be at the top of the list.  Especially across NH where so many roads are built right above streams and such.  

[weatherwiz]

Cyclone phase diagrams are all over the place right now. Everything from purely tropical (GFDL) to cold core (GFS). Some make a pit stop, or end up in an asymmetric warm core system, which appears to be why the HWRF keeps intensity so high through landfall.

 

This really isn't the first time we've seen some guidance be too aggressive with intensity of these systems through landfall here, particularly the HWRF.  The HWRF doesn't seem to handle too well this latitude and all the other influences that come into play here.  I guess if anything maybe we deal with a situation where the system is transitioning from purely tropical to cold core as it's already over us...but I would think we would want to see a pretty accelerated moving system and that may not be the case here.  

[TalcottWx]

I'm looking at the upper air and jet... the high blocking... I can't see how this doesn't give considerable impact in whatever form to New England. There is no escape to the east, or at least not until its already close enough to give us a ton of rain at the minimum. The euro made me nervous that there might actually be too much blocking. Means are further east. I'll ride with them in the middle. Nice SNE weenie track lol.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think Joaquin will be a minimal hurricane at its most intense point, but that could happen within the 72 hour mark, after that SSTs north of the Outer Banks drop off like a cliff.  However wind shear doesn't seem to be too bad even though its the mid latitudes.  His current organization pattern looks good if indeed his LLC is underneath the convection.

[IsentropicLift]

The biggest impact regardless is probably going to be flooding. Look how wet the 00z RGEM is just through 48 hours.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I bet people have seen the 00z NAM, just horrific amounts of rain and the tropical storm doesn't even impact us at hour 84.

[ORH_wxman]

There's definitely going to be two general maxima it looks like (talking before any real tropical involvement if that even occurs)...the quasi-stationary front somewhere over NY State to CNE/NNE and then the main theta-E slug that hits SNE a bit later that also is enhanced by the frontal boundary that sinks south...what happens after is unclear..this is where we could see continued enhanced rainfall in certain areas depending on the exact synoptics. Again, I would probably watch that SE NH/E MA area closely with the NE BL flow and mid-level flow...if we reignite a bit of WAA int he mid-levels while keeping that BL flow NE, then look out for one of those SE NH/Essex county to maybe somewhere in E-central MA type enhanced bands.

 

 

We'll know a lot more on that potential by tomorrow night. In the meantime, everyone is gonna get a good soaking anyway as that frontal boundary sags south.

[MJO812]

Massive amounts of rain on the 0z GFS

[ice1972]

Is October 20ish 2005 a possibility here?

[MJO812]

0z Ukie at 144
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Wow. That looks like it's heading our way.

[TalcottWx]

What time does euro roll now? 2? Might be making an all nighter. 550am practice and only got out of work an hour ago anyway

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Damn, I would love to stay up all night, but I got real tired just a few minutes ago, I woke up early yesterday morning for the Patriots game, my first game in an NFL game and it was spectacular, a little nervous at first, but otherwise a great game, our Patriots made it 9 scores, 6TDs and 3FGs.  History was made as well.  Plus a 51 point day is pretty damn good.  BTW, Joaquin looks to be intensifying, but we will see when the sun rises what Joaquin looks like.

[Mailman]

What time does euro roll now? 2? Might be making an all nighter. 550am practice and only got out of work an hour ago anyway

 

Initializes around 1:45am or so.

[TalcottWx]

Initializes around 1:45am or so.

I'll do play by play from my wxbell for people who don't have access...

[ice1972]

Initializes around 1:45am or so.

4.5 short weeks and its 12:45......can't wait

[TalcottWx]

Euro initialized 

[dmillz25]

Looks like ill be here seeing what the euro has to say.

[powderfreak]

Just landed in Munich, Germany to see what the ECM has to say... Initalized and out to 24 hours.

Going to miss this event in Europe but a fascinating rain event looks likely for all.

[powderfreak]

Through 48 hours it's got over 5" at BDL already. Widespread 2-3" all of New England with little pockets of higher. Also has that narrow axis of very heavy rain from upstate NY through central VT/NH that the NAM has been showing.

The hr42 panel for QPF is loltastic...3"/6hrs from Eek/Dendrite down through BDL area.