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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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NYC  80 (+) days  71 of 74   (7/4:75, 7/9:79, 9/9:79)

 

EWR 69 straight 80 (+) days and 73 of 74

 

NYC TOP 5 80's streak

1. 62 (7/10-9/9/2015)

2. 59 (6/26-8/23/1944)

3. 41 (7/8-8/17/1943 and 7/4-8/13/2011)

4. 40 (6/20-7/29/1966)

 

 

NYC 80 (+) Days 2015
 
April: 1
May: 18
Jun: 16
Jul: 29
Aug:  31 
Sep: 10
 
Top 5 for Central Park:

 

1. 108, 1944

2. 106, 1991

3. 104, 1959

4. 100, 1949 and 2005

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The streak of nice weekends has ended.

 

Cant win them all and we havent but since easter 90% have been nice and since July 4 nearly all of them.

 

Guidance brings back the warmth once this UL moves out on Monday.  We'll see how much longer we have in this pattern.  Could see some 90 or near 90 wed - fri (9/16-18)

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Cant win them all and we havent but since easter 90% have been nice and since July 4 nearly all of them.

 

Guidance brings back the warmth once this UL moves out on Monday.  We'll see how much longer we have in this pattern.  Could see some 90 or near 90 wed - fri (9/16-18)

Oh yeah, we did great this Summer and Spring. May was a great month, and really everything after that was great, besides some sections of June.

Monday looks cool, but after that the heat should slowly build back in.

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Departures through 9/11

 

NYC: +8.5

EWR: +7.2

LGA: +6.7

JFK:  +6.1

TTN: +7.3

PHL: +7.9

 

Sun- Mon will chomp some of these away but tue (9/15) - at least (9/21) will very likely build back some more significant warmth against normals.

 

1st warmest September on record at NYC would work out out to +5.5 under current climo and 10th place would be +3.1.

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Max. Temps. for CPK in Sept. 1961:

 

1961,9,1 94

1961,9,2 95

1961,9,3 88

1961,9,4 94

1961,9,5 93

1961,9,6 88

1961,9,7 78

1961,9,8 79

1961,9,9 87

1961,9,10 92

1961,9,11 92

1961,9,12 94

1961,9,13 88

1961,9,14 87

1961,9,15 76

1961,9,16 72

1961,9,17 70

1961,9,18 71

1961,9,19 67

1961,9,20 72

1961,9,21 72

1961,9,22 88

1961,9,23 90

1961,9,24 87

1961,9,25 81

1961,9,26 78

1961,9,27 78

1961,9,28 81

1961,9,29 69

1961,9,30 73

Looks like there were 8  90deg. days and not 6 like I thought.

Labor Day was on the 4th. that Sept.

 

1961 holds the record with eight 90 degree days...1970 and 1983 had seven...I think 1895 had seven?...

 

monthly 90 degrees days......

Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals...

1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37.......................

1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8

1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11

1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24

1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30

1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15

1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29

1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13

1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19

1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10

1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27

1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7

1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14

1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9

1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12

1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16

1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16

1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25

1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6

1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15

1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9

1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22

1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9

1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4

1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17

1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13

1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7

1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10

1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14

1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4

1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16

1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22

1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15

1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6

1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31

1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9

1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8

1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9

1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19

1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26

1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17

1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10

1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34

1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9

1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26

1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22

1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23

1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6

1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17

1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11

1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26

2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12

2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17

2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33

2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17

2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7

2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30

2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22

2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23

2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19

2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8

2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48

2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19

2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28

2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........21

2014..........0.......0.......0......3......3......2...........8..........6

2015..........0.......0.......1......5......8......6..........20.......23 as of 9/11

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1961 holds the record with eight 90 degree days...1970 and 1983 had seven...I think 1895 had seven?...

 

monthly 90 degrees days......

Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals...

1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37.......................

1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8

1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11

1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24

1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30

1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15

1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29

1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13

1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19

1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10

1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27

1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7

1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14

1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9

1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12

1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16

1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16

1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25

1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6

1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15

1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9

1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22

1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9

1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4

1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17

1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13

1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7

1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10

1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14

1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4

1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16

1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22

1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15

1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6

1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31

1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9

1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8

1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9

1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19

1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26

1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17

1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10

1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34

1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9

1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26

1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22

1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23

1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6

1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17

1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11

1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26

2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12

2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17

2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33

2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17

2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7

2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30

2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22

2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23

2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19

2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8

2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48

2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19

2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28

2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........21

2014..........0.......0.......0......3......3......2...........8..........6

2015..........0.......0.......1......5......8......6..........20.......23 as of 9/11

 

Unc great info!  Note LGA is at 20 90 degree days so far this year thru 9/11?

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Departures through 9/11

 

NYC: +8.5

EWR: +7.2

LGA: +6.7

JFK:  +6.1

TTN: +7.3

PHL: +7.9

 

Sun- Mon will chomp some of these away but tue (9/15) - at least (9/21) will very likely build back some more significant warmth against normals.

Departure here is +6.1 degrees. Current mean for month is 76.5 degrees...warmest Sept since 1977 is 72.0 degrees in 2005.

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Today's high temperature in NYC was 79°. New York City currently has 105 days on which the temperature reached 80° or above. That's just shy of the record of 108, which was set in 1944.

 

That record should fall. The ensembles are showing a pattern that is reasonably consistent with some of the warmest mid- to late-September patterns for the 9/15-25 timeframe.

 

09122015_1.jpg

 

09122015_2.jpg

 

The most days on which the temperature reached 90° or above on or after 9/15 is 5, which was set in 1970. Those days were:

 

9/16 92°

9/22 94°

9/23 93°

9/25 90°

9/26 91°

 

The 9/21-26/1970 period had high temperatures of 80° or above:

 

9/21 82°

9/22 94°

9/23 93°

9/24 87°

9/25 90°

9/26 91°

 

Much cooler weather followed with the low temperature 48° on 9/29 and 47° on 9/30. The temperature rebounded to reach 80° on October 3.

 

Given the forecast pattern, I expect that 2015 will establish a new record for the most 80° or above days in a year. Moreover, the potential exists for at least one more 90° day.

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The Euro weeklies have really been struggling with the intensity of the low near the

PAC NW which has been pumping the strong ridge over us with the record warmth.

We have to monitor the verifications since a continuing trough there favors

above normal temps here.

 

Week 4 freebie from Fox 12 wx blog

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/500za_week4_bg_na.png

 

 

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The Euro weeklies have really been struggling with the intensity of the low near the

PAC NW which has been pumping the strong ridge over us with the record warmth.

We have to monitor the verifications since a continuing trough there favors

above normal temps here.

Week 4 freebie from Fox 12 wx blog

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/500za_week4_bg_na.png

attachicon.gif500za_week4_bg_na.png

attachicon.giff72.gif

I hope that doesn't continue. If it does. Then this winter could torch.
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Over the last 10 years or so Septembers have averaged over 1 degree above the 1981-2010 norms. September is more of a late summer month these days.

the 1930's and 40's were the warmest September decades averaging 68.6 and 68.7...so far the 2010's are averaging 69.5 and that will go up after this year...The next four Septembers must be cool to prevent the 2010's from being the warmest September decade...

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Over the last 10 years or so Septembers have averaged over 1 degree above the 1981-2010 norms. September is more of a late summer month these days.

 

 

The linear correlation between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and Northeastern surface temperatures is highest in September, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.4. The AMO was positive every September from 2000-2015; it was more predominately negative prior to 1996.

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Zilch here yesterday, I would think that within the next month or so the floodgates will open so to speak and hopefully we will begin to see coastal storms beginning to affect the region with an active STJ up along the east coast in response to El Nino having more influence on the pattern as we go into the fall and winter months. At least some areas were able to pick up a decent amount of rain earlier in the week.

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