Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I think that's going to bust hard in New England. I see signs of the WAR flexing increasingly suggesting a much better likelihood of aoa and humid. Time will tell.Pattern change a comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Pattern change a comin Monster PNA expected. Week of AN then hammer time per modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Well 00z was a little warmer than that, but yeah. Looks like we may cool it back down a bit around d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 It appears stormy times are in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Nothing but AN thru d10..That's how to run deep summer. Any big cooling seems to stay over MW as has been case most of summer..with blunted cooling east of Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Gulf opens up, tropical hybrids round the mid Atlantic ridge, if we get a tropical system there's a pretty good setup. The return of the Noreaster and heavy precip as we switch pattern. Should be NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Nothing but AN thru d10..That's how to run deep summer. Any big cooling seems to stay over MW as has been case most of summer..with blunted cooling east of Appsblunted cooling lol but yea MW is cold we are cool with rainy periods but if modeling correct BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Nothing but AN thru d10..That's how to run deep summer. Any big cooling seems to stay over MW as has been case most of summer..with blunted cooling east of Appswe have had similar summer overall to the MW, cool summer as we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 blunted cooling lol but yea MW is cold we are cool with rainy periods but if modeling correct BN It's not cool rains..it's more daytime highs below normal with S flow and high humidity with periodic showers/storms etc.. Ventrice all over it Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h 2 hours agoMedford, NY Big time pattern change coming; Heat wave aimed for the NW as what could exceptional cool air o/ Plains-Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 It's not cool rains..it's more daytime highs below normal with S flow and high humidity with periodic showers/storms etc.. Ventrice all over it Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h 2 hours agoMedford, NY Big time pattern change coming; Heat wave aimed for the NW as what could exceptional cool air o/ Plains-Midwest. wut? that's the same only in your mind is BN not BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I don't care what it says. I stand by my call of aoa for August with a flexing of the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I don't care what it says. I stand by my call of aoa for August with a flexing of the WAR. Perhaps an end-loaded summer ...? I personally just don't think so... Firstly, it is easier to put up an AN month than at BN month given the 30-year trend. That trend bias is substantial enough to keep that in fairness perspective. For me, if it ends up being a mere +.5 above that's a categorical win when factoring in what it takes to keep a month within shouting distance of normal. This sort of super-imposing off-set gets lost too often when folks are claiming victory. Secondly, I don't see enough evidence to off-set the long term, extended period (spanning multi-seasons) pattern base-line; though perfectly willing to amend that if evidence warrants. But they are siting the Euro products, while the 00z GFS ensemble mean concurs. That modeling support of the longer term trend - heh, good luck with your outlook. I tell you what though, we could end up with a WAR-like, humid August and still descend later on, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Perhaps an end-loaded summer ...? I personally just don't think so... Firstly, it is easier to put up an AN month than at BN month given the 30-year trend. That trend bias is substantial enough to keep that in fairness perspective. For me, if it ends up being a mere +.5 above that's a categorical win when factoring in what it takes to keep a month within shouting distance of normal. This sort of super-imposing off-set gets lost too often when folks are claiming victory. Secondly, I don't see enough evidence to off-set the long term, extended period (spanning multi-seasons) pattern base-line; though perfectly willing to amend that if evidence warrants. But they are siting the Euro products, while the 00z GFS ensemble mean concurs. That modeling support of the longer term trend - heh, good luck with your outlook. I tell you what though, we could end up with a WAR-like, humid August and still descend later on, too. Statistical Mets consider +1 -1 to be insignificant enough in a monthly set to be considered normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 I don't care what it says. I stand by my call of aoa for August with a flexing of the WAR.what Met reasoning is behind your analysis, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Of course I'm aware ... but what I really mean is that the flow could mimic a below normal one, and still end up a tick aboveyes agree, might be a AN nights BN days wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Meanwhile LR Euro comes in silly with +4/6 850s in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 This is starting to remind me of the July 13 pattern change when I was on an island thinking it would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Not to blow my own horn but honestly? That, right there, is an example of one model picking up where this warm week leaves off with that "base-line" pattern I have been speaking about. Seriously, with that quasi block in the NW TERR. of Canada, and that EPO (-) ridge, does that look much different than the cold wave os 2014, the big February of 2015 ?? No ..it doesn't. And that's my point... that sort of circulation medium keeps showing back up ...time and time time again. It's the local chapter along the 30-year novel. These things tend to last 3-5 years and we're perhaps mid way through. ...something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 It's cast aside as the Euro being the Euro and getting way too trough/dig happy. that will end up verifying warmer and farther west matching it's own ENS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 It's cast aside as the Euro being the Euro and getting way too trough/dig happy. that will end up verifying warmer and farther west matching it's own ENS meanwe change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Looks like a blocky pattern developing with the EPO ridge developing, as has been typical since July 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Looks like a blocky pattern developing with the EPO ridge developing, as has been typical since July 2013.yep if this were winter it would be fire up the bus week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Doesn't look any different. All systems go for humid Aug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Man let's hold that look all fall and winter #excitingtimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Doesn't look any different. All systems go for humid Augwe goalpost change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Maybe it'll happen Ginx, but I'm just not seeing what you are. Doesn't look like a chilly pattern at all to me. I have a real strong suspicion that ends up muted and much farther west. Another thing to keep in mind is there's going to be some type of tropical system off the east coast which will have a say on the pattern next week. Nothing is certain next week at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Pretty good support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 what Met reasoning is behind your analysis, just curious. The past developing ninos that showed war and the propensity on all guidance to show it on some level. Even the long range trough indeed bows to it keeping lowest heights west of us. Watch that retrograde as the WAR builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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