NYC January 15th- March 22nd El Nino Peak Snowfall Climatology

[bluewave]

El Nino winters typically save the best of cold and or snow for the later portions of the winter.

A number of El Nino winters can start out mild in December and feature a change to colder

and or snowier after January 15th. Some El Ninos have colder or snowier

conditions from December into January. Several El Nino winters didn't exhibit this pattern

after January 15th. I highlighted the most pronounced late El Nino winters for NYC

going back to 1958.

 

Temperature departures and snow

                                       

1958....February..............-5.1....10.7"

1958....March..................-0.7....15.9"

 

1964....February..............-0.5....14.1"

 

1966....January 20-30.......-5.2....11.6"

1966....February..............+1.7....9.8"

 

1969....February..............-0.8....16.6".....9-10....15.3"

1969....March..................-0.4.....5.6"

 

1978...January 19-31.......-4.9....13.6" 19-20

1978...February...............-6.2....23.0" 6-7...17.4"

 

1983...February 6-13........-5.7....21.5"..11-12..17.6"...One amazing week of winter for whole season

 

1987...January 18-31.......-4.4....13.1"...22..8.1"

1987...February...............-0.2....7.0"

 

1995...February...............-2.0...11.6"...14...10.8"

 

2003...January 15-31........-9.1....3.1"

2003...February................-4.5....26.1"...PD 2 19.8"

 

2005...January 16-31.......-10.6...15.3"...22-23..13.8"

2005...February ...............+2.0....15.8"

2005...March....................-3.0.....6.9"

 

2007...February................-6.3.....3.8"

2007...March....................-0.3....6.0"

 

2010...February................-1.4....36.9"

 

2015...January  24-31........-4.5....14.4"....26-27...9.8"

2015...February................-11.4...13.6"

2015...March.....................-4.4.....18.6"

[uncle W]

el nino winters with at least one 15 day period of snow and cold...average temperature 32.0 or lower with at least 10" of snow...

 

15 day period.............AT..max/min...Precip"..Snow"BS"....SC"

Feb. 7-21.........1958..21.4..39....3..1.37"..10.5"....7.9".....8"

 

Dec 11-25.........1963..27.0..39..11..1.19"..10.3"....6.6"....7"
Feb. 8-22..........1964..31.3..43..19..1.71"..11.9"....6.8"....6"

Jan20-Feb 3.....1966..28.2..44....8..1.73"..14.7"....6.8"....8"

Feb 9-23..........1969..31.7..43..17..2.47"..16.3"..15.3"...15"

Jan 5-19...........1977..20.2..41...-2..2.07"..10.9"....5.2"....6"

Jan 9-23...........1978..26.1..58..12..5.45"..19.3"..13.6"..14"
Feb 1-15..........1978..24.9..37..10..1.50"..21.9"..17.7"..18"

Jan 17-31.........1987..26.8..40....8..3.21"..13.1"....8.1"...9"

Dec29-Jan12...87-88..24.7..45....8..1.63"..13.8"....5.8"...9"

Feb. 2-16.........1995..26.3..47....6..1.72"..11.1"..10.8"..11"

Feb. 5-19.........2003..25.6..41....8..2.32"..26.1"..19.8"..20"

Jan. 14-28........2004..20.0..39....1..1.36"..16.8"..10.3"..12"

Jan. 16-30........2005..20.5..38....5..1.27"..15.3"..13.8"..14"
Feb18-Mar 4.....2005..30.6..43..16..1.54"..18.7"....7.7"....9"

Dec19-Jan2.....09-10..31.9..55..16..3.07"..12.6"..10.9"..11"
Feb 2-16..........2010..31.2..42..17..1.86"..16.0"..10.0"..10"

Jan24-Feb7......2015..27.3..43..13...2.71"..16.9"...9.8"..10"

Feb19-Mar 5.....2015..25.6..45....4..2.91"..18.1"...7.5"..19"

[uncle W]

10" snowfalls for el nino years...

snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...

1897...1/27-28....10.0"

1905...1/24-25.....11.0"

1914...3/1-2.........14.5"

 

1915...4/1-2.........10.2"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"

1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"

1958...3/19-20.....11.8"

1964...1/12-13.....12.5"

1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"

1995...2/4............10.8"

2003...2/16-17.....19.8"

 

2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"

 

2005...1/22-23.....13.8"

2009...12/19-20...10.9"
2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"

[bluewave]

10" snowfalls for el nino years...

snowfalls 10" or greater......

Year....date....amount"...

 

Yeah, the strong -AO during the El Nino Decembers of 2002 and 2009 helped us finish snowier and colder than is

typically the case in an El Nino December. If you can get a strong -AO in December , then you have a chance

to buck the milder El Nino December composite below.

 

December 1957 was an interesting case. November 1957 featured a strong -AO pattern which peaked

right before the end of the month. This set the stage for the 12/3-12/4, 1957 8.0" snow in NYC.

The -AO faded right after that storm and December finished with +4.3 temperature departure in NYC.

 

 

 

[Rittenhouse]

Drawing conclusions with this kind of climatological data is problematic for many reasons. For one, snow is much more difficult to predict in the long-term than temperature. There's many more variables that go into snowfall and the science isn't quite there yet. Secondly, there's simply not enough data present. There have only been a handful of El Nino winters in the past 60 years. Given this scarcity of data, I don't think it's wise to read too much into it. Furthermore, I'm skeptical about whether data from the 1950's is even particularly useful since the climate is always in flux. Extreme precipitation events in the Northeastern U.S. seem to be occurring much more frequently than they were fifty years ago, for example.

 

This past winter showed that it can be a fool's errand to try and search for correlations in the hopes of predicting snow totals. It is clear that El Nino is associated with warmer and wetter conditions in early winter for the NYC area. But as you noted, a strong AO- can make this correlation a moot point.

[bluewave]

Drawing conclusions with this kind of climatological data is problematic for many reasons. For one, snow is much more difficult to predict in the long-term than temperature. There's many more variables that go into snowfall and the science isn't quite there yet. Secondly, there's simply not enough data present. There have only been a handful of El Nino winters in the past 60 years. Given this scarcity of data, I don't think it's wise to read too much into it. Furthermore, I'm skeptical about whether data from the 1950's is even particularly useful since the climate is always in flux. Extreme precipitation events in the Northeastern U.S. seem to be occurring much more frequently than they were fifty years ago, for example.

 

This past winter showed that it can be a fool's errand to try and search for correlations in the hopes of predicting snow totals. It is clear that El Nino is associated with warmer and wetter conditions in early winter for the NYC area. But as you noted, a strong AO- can make this correlation a moot point.

 

This past winter was almost a perfect match for El Nino climatology here starting out warm and finishing

cold and snowy. This El Nino progression is one of the best known in climatology. The timing of the turn

to snowy in late January followed by the record cold February was an extreme version of this. The increase

in seasonal snowfall from very little before January 20th to above 50" for many was also seen with the 

77-78 weak El Nino.

 

But although this is the typical pattern, there are outlier years which don't conform to this. Sometimes

the cold doesn't arrive late or the winter starts cold which I noted in the opening post.

 

The 97-98 super El Nino overwhelmed North America with near record warmth and lack of snow and

no return to cold or snowy. 72-73 started warm and finished cold but the snow never came. 91-92

was a mild and relatively snowless winter.

[uncle W]

strongest el nino's using the JMA index...snowfall average temperature winter minimum...

2014 had a +10...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

+33...1997-98.....5.5".....39.6.....14

+29...2015-16................................

+28...1982-83...27.2".....37.9.....12

+23...1888-89...16.5".....32.7.......3

+22...1877-78.....8.1".....33.3.......7

+20...1972-73.....2.8".....35.8.......7

+19...1930-31...11.6".....33.8.....10

+18...1896-97...43.6".....32.7.......6

+16...1899-00...13.4".....33.4.......5

+16...1925-26...32.4".....32.0.......5

+15...1868-69...28.0".....33.0.......4...snowfall estimated...25.6" from Jan-Apr...

+14...1902-03...28.7".....32.0.......4

+14...1918-19.....3.8".....36.6.....10

+14...1987-88...19.1".....34.7.......5

+14...1991-92...12.6".....37.2.....11

+14...2009-10...51.4".....33.8.....13

+13...1911-12...29.5".....30.6......-3

+13...1965-66...21.4".....35.9.......8

+13...2006-07...12.4".....36.5.......8

+12...1957-58...44.7".....33.3.......3

+12...1951-52...19.7".....37.0.......8

[JBG]

Didn't we get nice events on December 13, 1968 and on December 5, 2002? But in general am I right in observing that the "good" strong El Niño winters were more or less "one-hit wonders" or at best "one and a half" such as the 1968-9 and 2002- 3 winters?

[bluewave]

Didn't we get nice events on December 13, 1968 and on December 5, 2002? But in general am I right in observing that the "good" strong El Niño winters were more or less "one-hit wonders" or at best "one and a half" such as the 1968-9 and 2002- 3 winters?

 

Yes. In the case of 1968 and 2002, the strong -AO in November and December was able to override the the typical

warmer and less snowy December that often accompanies an El Nino winter. This was also the case in 2009-2010

and 1957-1958. But in all those cases the best winter snowstorms were still backloaded. Think March 1958,

Feb 1969, Feb 2003, and Feb 2010.

[uncle W]

Yes. In the case of 1968 and 2002, the strong -AO in November and December was able to override the the typical

warmer and less snowy December that often accompanies an El Nino winter. This was also the case in 2009-2010

and 1957-1958. But in all those cases the best winter snowstorms were still backloaded. Think March 1958,

Feb 1969, Feb 2003, and Feb 2010.

1963-64 was a lesser el nino but it had a cold December with a snowstorm just before Christmas...A January Blizzard during a mild month...February 64 had frequent snows (one almost seven inches) and average temperatures even though the monthly min was only 19...The winter of 2002-03 was a wire to wire winter...Snow came in late October and April to go with the other storms...

[nzucker]

Didn't we get nice events on December 13, 1968 and on December 5, 2002? But in general am I right in observing that the "good" strong El Niño winters were more or less "one-hit wonders" or at best "one and a half" such as the 1968-9 and 2002- 3 winters?

02-03 was NOT a one-hit wonder. We had a cold November with Thanksgiving snow in many areas, then I got 11" on XMAS Day with a storm many thought would be all rain.

Part of January was brutually cold with highs in the 15-degree range. I remember waiting inside the HS for rides instead of on the stoop, bundled up in the cold.

February had a decent event early in the month...then 16" on PDII with snowpack near two feet.

April finished up with 3" on April 7th and a couple very cold days.

[bluewave]

Here is another post highlighting how January 15th-March 22nd is often the peak time

for snowfall in an El Nino winter. Out of 21 El Nino winters since 1957-1958, 17 years

featured the heaviest snowstorm of the season from late January through March.

This is why patience is often necessary in an El Nino winter.

 

NYC El Nino heaviest snowstorm dates and amounts

 

57-58....March 20-21..........11.8"

58-59....March 12................5.5"

63-64....January 12-13........12.5"

65-66....January 29-30.........6.8"

68-69....February 9-10........15.3"

69-70....December 25-26.....6.8"

72-73....January 29..............1.8"

76-77....January 14..............5.0"

77-78....February 5-7 .........17.7"

79-80....March 13-14............4.6"

82-83....February 11-12......17.6"

86-87....January 22...............8.1"

87-88....January 3-4..............5.8"

91-92....March 19..................6.2"

94-95....February 4...............10.8"

97-98....March 22...................5.0"

02-03....February 16-17........19.8"

04-05....January 22-23.........13.8"

06-07....March 16...................5.5"

09-10....February.25-26........20.9"

14-15....January 26-27...........9.8"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

the last two winters had over 40" after January 15th...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1959-60......18.6"......20.6"......39.2"
1960-61......19.6"......35.1"......54.7"
1961-62........7.8"......10.3"......18.1"
1962-63........4.5"......11.8"......16.3"
1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7"
1964-65......10.1"......14.3"......24.4"
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"
1966-67........9.7"......41.8"......51.5"
1967-68......12.3"........7.2"......19.5"
1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"

1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6"
1970-71......10.8"........4.7"......15.5"
1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"
1973-74......10.6"......12.9"......23.5"
1974-75........1.5"......11.6"......13.1"
1975-76........5.2"......12.1"......17.3"
1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"
1978-79........7.5"......21.9"......29.4"

1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"
1980-81........9.6"........9.8"......19.4"
1981-82......11.8"......12.8"......24.6"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"
1983-84........7.5"......17.9"......25.4"
1984-85........7.9"......16.2"......24.1"
1985-86........0.9"......12.1"......13.0"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"
1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1"
1988-89........5.3"........2.8"........8.1"

1989-90........7.1"........6.3"......13.4"
1990-91......13.2"......11.7"......24.9"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"
1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"
1993-94......12.0"......41.4"......53.4"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"
1995-96......39.6"......36.0"......75.6"
1996-97........4.5"........5.5"......10.0"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"
1998-99........6.5"........6.2"......12.7"

1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"
2000-01......15.2"......19.8"......35.0"
2001-02........0.5"........3.0"........3.5"
2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3"
2003-04......26.0"......16.6"......42.6"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"
2005-06......11.7"......28.3"......40.0"
2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"
2007-08........2.9"........9.0"......11.9"
2008-09........8.0"......19.6"......27.6"

2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4"

2010-11......30.9"......31.0"......61.9"
2011-12........2.9"........4.5"........7.4"

2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1"

2013-14......15.0"......42.4"......57.4"

2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3"

[alwaysready126]

el nino winters with at least one 15 day period of snow and cold...average temperature 32.0 or lower with at least 10" of snow...

 

15 day period.............AT..max/min...Precip"..Snow"BS"....SC"

Feb. 7-21.........1958..21.4..39....3..1.37"..10.5"....7.9".....8"

 

Dec 11-25.........1963..27.0..39..11..1.19"..10.3"....6.6"....7"

Feb. 8-22..........1964..31.3..43..19..1.71"..11.9"....6.8"....6"

Jan20-Feb 3.....1966..28.2..44....8..1.73"..14.7"....6.8"....8"

Feb 9-23..........1969..31.7..43..17..2.47"..16.3"..15.3"...15"

Jan 5-19...........1977..20.2..41...-2..2.07"..10.9"....5.2"....6"

Jan 9-23...........1978..26.1..58..12..5.45"..19.3"..13.6"..14"

Feb 1-15..........1978..24.9..37..10..1.50"..21.9"..17.7"..18"

Jan 17-31.........1987..26.8..40....8..3.21"..13.1"....8.1"...9"

Dec29-Jan12...87-88..24.7..45....8..1.63"..13.8"....5.8"...9"

Feb. 2-16.........1995..26.3..47....6..1.72"..11.1"..10.8"..11"

Feb. 5-19.........2003..25.6..41....8..2.32"..26.1"..19.8"..20"

Jan. 14-28........2004..20.0..39....1..1.36"..16.8"..10.3"..12"

Jan. 16-30........2005..20.5..38....5..1.27"..15.3"..13.8"..14"

Feb18-Mar 4.....2005..30.6..43..16..1.54"..18.7"....7.7"....9"

Dec19-Jan2.....09-10..31.9..55..16..3.07"..12.6"..10.9"..11"

Feb 2-16..........2010..31.2..42..17..1.86"..16.0"..10.0"..10"

Jan24-Feb7......2015..27.3..43..13...2.71"..16.9"...9.8"..10"

Feb19-Mar 5.....2015..25.6..45....4..2.91"..18.1"...7.5"..19"

 

I feel real good about this timeframe.  It's one thing to lean on the law of averages when all else fails and also to keep hope alive for a good second half to winter.  It's entirely different when the players on the field indicate as they do now that we should see this trend continue.  If anything is different, I believe the observations of the second half of winter will only reiterate and make stronger the averages and trends that we have seen in the past.  With a east to west collapse and favorable conditions for high latitude blocking (solar activity or lackthereof, siberian snow cover, Atlantic Ocean SSTA;s), we should be in for a fun ride come mid to late January.  Also, we are starting to see somewhat of a shift in the overall pattern, even of they are baby steps.  I am encouraged by the number of coastals popping up on various model(s) runs especially since we find ourselves in about a 50 day pattern cycle which coincides with the  middle of January.

[bluewave]

the last two winters had over 40" after January 15th...

season...Jan 15th...After...total

1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7"

1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"

1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"

1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6"

1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"

1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5"

1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"

1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"

1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"

1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"

1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1"

1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"

1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"

1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"

2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3"

2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"

2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"

2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4"

2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3"

 

Great job as usual Uncle. I separated out the El Nino years in your list.

[JBG]

02-03 was NOT a one-hit wonder. We had a cold November with Thanksgiving snow in many areas, then I got 11" on XMAS Day with a storm many thought would be all rain.

Part of January was brutually cold with highs in the 15-degree range. I remember waiting inside the HS for rides instead of on the stoop, bundled up in the cold.

February had a decent event early in the month...then 16" on PDII with snowpack near two feet.

April finished up with 3" on April 7th and a couple very cold days.

Agreed. I forgot about the Christmas and April storms.