Hoosier Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 This thread will cover the ring of fire type pattern that we're getting into. Looks like numerous chances for heavy rain/severe weather across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 12z GFS just has repeated complex after complex in this area. Obviously we'll have to assess as we go but an ominous looking pattern especially with antecedent wet conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 hell yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Yeah....each previous one will effect the next one....but the stage is getting set and elevated DPs should have no issue streaming north, feeding, and recovering fairly rapidly with all of the micro scale soil conditions along the traditional moisture channels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 The GFS for early next week is looking more and more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looking at month to date precip, factoring in the tropical remnants and the pattern afterwards, it's not a stretch that a huge chunk of the area ends up with over 10" of rain this month. Maybe some area tops 20" if things get crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Looking increasingly likely that the Saturday night mcs takes a hard right into DVNs cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suckzone Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 what do you think chances are for the mcs to hit indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 what do you think chances are for the mcs to hit indy? maybe decaying garbage sunday morning i like from the QC area running back WSW towards northern MO. progged instability pool and llj nose say hard right turn saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 what do you think chances are for the mcs to hit indy? Alek's comments are right on for the Sat. night MCS. But take heart, both 12 and 18z GFS runs show multiple chances of systems crashing through central IN on occasion during the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Really hope we can pull out one decent event over the next week....although seems any real instability stays south. Then back to dreaded NW flow to end the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 maybe decaying garbage sunday morning i like from the QC area running back WSW towards northern MO. progged instability pool and llj nose say hard right turn saturday evening. I agree on the hard right turn...west of the mississippi is hard for me to buy at the moment...speed/strength of bill playing tricks imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Saturday evening riding the I88/I80 train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Euro had a better signal for a complex farther ne on Saturday...well, the previous run did, didn't see 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Euro had a better signal for a complex farther ne on Saturday...well, the previous run did, didn't see 12z. So did the 18z GFS Ensembles, but it might have to be progging N Wisconsin to get hit for me to believe MKE's got a good shot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 4K NAM 0Z radar shows a LARGE MCS with widespread supercells around the MCS on Saturday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 A really nice period of seasonally strong mid-level flow setting up quite nicely starting Saturday, and pretty much lasting all week. Some pretty impressive jet maxes showing up from time to time. With such a huge pool of instability poised on the periphery of these impulses we should really rack up the severe weather reports this week over a huge part of the MW/Lakes/OV. This could be one of the most active weeks for widespread severe we get this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 A really nice period of seasonally strong mid-level flow setting up quite nicely starting Saturday, and pretty much lasting all week. Some pretty impressive jet maxes showing up from time to time. With such a huge pool of instability poised on the periphery of these impulses we should really rack up the severe weather reports this week over a huge part of the MW/Lakes/OV. This could be one of the most active weeks for widespread severe we get this summer. I'd have to think at least one of these days will end up being a bigger event given the mid level flow alone. Those kinds of winds aloft can drive strong MCSs/derechos. Maybe some chances for tornadic setups too especially in regions with more backing in the low levels since there almost certainly will be good speed shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I'd have to think at least one of these days will end up being a bigger event given the mid level flow alone. Those kinds of winds aloft can drive strong MCSs/derechos. Maybe some chances for tornadic setups too especially in regions with more backing in the low levels since there almost certainly will be good speed shear. Yeah with some leftover boundaries around on a daily basis there could even be a few surprises in store. Probably be a few MCVs roaming through the region as well, which can always enhance tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 New day 3 has a slight risk basically along the I-70 corridor in IL/IN/OH. Disco makes me think an upgrade to at least enhanced could eventually happen. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0212 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015VALID 211200Z - 221200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MSVALLEY AND NRN OH VALLEY......MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...A LONG STRETCH OF WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ONSUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ISFORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVELFLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...AQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRLPLAINS EWD INTO NRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WHICHTHUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TOTHE MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PARALLEL TO AN ELONGATEDEAST TO WEST FETCH OF STRONG INSTABILITY...A DAMAGING WIND EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND NRN OH VALLEY SUNDAYAFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 21Z/SUNDAY FROM CNTRL IL EWDINTO SRN OH SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...MLCAPE VALUES OF3000 TO 4500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD BEFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY IF A FORWARD PROPAGATINGBOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THISPOINT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ANDCOULD BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FACTORS. THE THREAT OF A SEVERE MCSAPPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREAEXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 No outlined areas on the new 4-8 day but sounds very promising. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0334 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015VALID 221200Z - 271200Z...DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 DAY PERIOD WITH ASHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MOVE THIS FEATUREESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY/DAY 4. BOTH THE ECMWFAND GFS HAVE AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWDINTO THE OH VALLEY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY/DAY 5. A SEVERE THREATWILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THEINSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM IA ESEWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE OHVALLEY. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EITHERONE OF THESE DAYS BUT SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO GREAT TOWARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...MODELSOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF MOVING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THENRN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MSVALLEY. BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE OHVALLEY SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY/DAY 7...THE ECMWF MOVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGHTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD INTHE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS WOULD MAKE STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IN THE MID-ATLANTICREGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVETROUGH ON THURSDAY INTRODUCING MUCH UNCERTAINTY. THIS LACK OFPREDICTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BROYLES.. 06/19/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I doubt the surface warm front makes it north of Geos after saturday. Looks like the heaviest hit areas will be on the tracks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I agree on the hard right turn...west of the mississippi is hard for me to buy at the moment...speed/strength of bill playing tricks imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Well heck...wouldn't be my first time being wrong. Either way, it will be nice to see some large polygon warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Well heck...wouldn't be my first time being wrong. Either way, it will be nice to see some large polygon warnings our eastern IA posters are having a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Very much FWIW, but the 12z 4km NAM. First this... ...and then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 it has been showing that general solution for a while now, should be a couple nice ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Not to go all winter on this board, but time to punt Saturday's action, and I am highly considering punting all of the next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Not to go all winter on this board, but time to punt Saturday's action, and I am highly considering punting all of the next week as well. probably the smart call that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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