snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Dr. Forbes thinking possible severe weather outbeak on Sunday for most of the subforum. Sunday, June 7, 2015Severe thunderstorms in WI, MI, IL, east IA, IN, OH, southwest WV, KY, and possibly TN. TOR:CON - 4 south IN; 3 rest of area for now. Possibly an outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Dr. Forbes thinking possible severe weather outbeak on Sunday for most of the subforum. At least based on today's 12z operational guidance, I'm not seeing an outbreak for this area. 500 mb flow and thus deep layer shear remains fairly marginal until behind the cold front and Euro, which is strongest with sfc low, has an unfavorable diurnal timing of the cold fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Dr. Forbes thinking possible severe weather outbeak on Sunday for most of the subforum. The question will be instability, the system is seasonally strong for this time of year. If we can manage modest instability though the potential would be pretty decent. I do think the outbreak talk though is a bit bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 After I pooh-poohed things yesterday, today's guidance looked pretty decent with respect to severe prospects on Sunday for northern IL, southern WI and northern IN. Better overlap of shear and instability due to slower frontal timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Yeah Sunday has some hope. Today's Euro slowed things up a bit and held the setup further west compared to the past few runs. Some of the models show instability well over 3000j/kg, so a conditional threat is likely with the shear profiles that are forecast. New GFS shows a nice little mid-level shortwave punching in during peak heating for some added support. Upper winds are pretty crappy, but shear profiles point mostly perpendicular to the initiating NE/SW boundary, so there's hope at some discrete action before things congeal and grow upscale. Given low-level shear profiles that actually look pretty decent that would imply at least a short period of tornado potential. This is sort of irrelevant, but had to post it anyway. The new NAM's hodo at 12z Sunday near the QC. 8-12hrs before the event. It very likely won't look this good by the event kickoff, but it sure is purdy to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Yeah Sunday has some hope. Today's Euro slowed things up a bit and held the setup further west compared to the past few runs. Some of the models show instability well over 3000j/kg, so a conditional threat is likely with the shear profiles that are forecast. New GFS shows a nice little mid-level shortwave punching in during peak heating for some added support. Upper winds are pretty crappy, but shear profiles point mostly perpendicular to the initiating NE/SW boundary, so there's hope at some discrete action before things congeal and grow upscale. Given low-level shear profiles that actually look pretty decent that would imply at least a short period of tornado potential. This is sort of irrelevant, but had to post it anyway. The new NAM's hodo at 12z Sunday near the QC. 8-12hrs before the event. It very likely won't look this good by the event kickoff, but it sure is purdy to look at. Probably a stretch to say this setup is like 6/5/2010 but I sorta had that vibe when looking at the progs. I definitely think this could be an all hazards setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 MKX doesn't buy into severe, and I think they will be right, hard enough to bust into the warm sector, and even if we di cloudiness will likely prevail. Just riding this spring's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Top CIPS Analog from the 12z GFS is 5/30/1985, which was the day before the significant outbreak in E OH/W PA. #3 was 5/31/2008 #5 was 5/31/1998 The Euro develops a pretty decent surface low over Lake Michigan by 00z. There's a pretty solid LLJ and at least a decent amount of directional shear in the low levels. Should be interesting to watch over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Top CIPS Analog from the 12z GFS is 5/30/1985, which was the day before the significant outbreak in E OH/W PA. #3 was 5/31/2008 #5 was 5/31/1998 The Euro develops a pretty decent surface low over Lake Michigan by 00z. There's a pretty solid LLJ and at least a decent amount of directional shear in the low levels. Should be interesting to watch over the next couple days. The Euro from last night was pretty impressive across Lower MI from 21-03z. I am very interested in Sunday's potential locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 The Euro from last night was pretty impressive across Lower MI from 21-03z. I am very interested in Sunday's potential locally. For sure. I don't know how reliable AccuwxPro's graphics are, but it shows a huge area across I80/90 and into Lower Michigan with over 25-35kts of 0-1km shear. It looks like sfc. winds don't really back too much, but with 65F dew points and at least some instability combined with that shear supports a tornado threat. Again, we're 84 hours out at this point but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 For sure. I don't know how reliable AccuwxPro's graphics are, but it shows a huge area across I80/90 and into Lower Michigan with over 25-35kts of 0-1km shear. It looks like sfc. winds don't really back too much, but with 65F dew points and at least some instability combined with that shear supports a tornado threat. Again, we're 84 hours out at this point but it's worth watching. Even SSW surface winds in this setup wouldn't be terrible considering the mid level flow is out of the west if not WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Even SSW surface winds in this setup wouldn't be terrible considering the mid level flow is out of the west if not WNW. Yeah and last night's Euro was Southerly at the surface turning to WNW by 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Looking for negatives, one of the things to keep an eye on would be mid-level lapse rates as we've seen that issue plague many setups this year. That seems to be the main problem with the Euro's idea and is really keeping the instability down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Euro also shows quite a bit of ongoing precip/cloudiness Sunday morning, which isn't surprising since it's a fairly common issue. GFS moves the precip out quicker and allows for instability to evolve a little better. Kinematics looks pretty respectable for a nice severe event. Just need the buoyancy. The timing of the H5 speed max is almost perfect on both the Euro and GFS. Gonna be fun to see how this goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 Euro also shows quite a bit of ongoing precip/cloudiness Sunday morning, which isn't surprising since it's a fairly common issue. GFS moves the precip out quicker and allows for instability to evolve a little better. Kinematics looks pretty respectable for a nice severe event. Just need the buoyancy. The timing of the H5 speed max is almost perfect on both the Euro and GFS. Gonna be fun to see how this goes down. And to mention with June 5th there was hardly any sun that day at all here and we still wound up with a very eventful day. Dynamics can work wonders especially in early June which seems to be our money time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2015 Author Share Posted June 5, 2015 New day 3 has a slight risk for E MO/C IL/most of IN/W OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 A bit surprised at the relatively southern placement of the day 3 slight risk, but I guess they are accounting for the early day activity shoving the better potential farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Severe reports based on CIPS analogs. Looking at the individual events, some clunkers and some decent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 A bit surprised at the relatively southern placement of the day 3 slight risk, but I guess they are accounting for the early day activity shoving the better potential farther south. There's that, and also the fact that models are always way too gung ho with surging the warm front (and thus moist/unstable air) NE, especially with the lakes still being so cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Nice bow echo on the 18z 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Nice bow echo on the 18z 4km NAM. Nice to see that it moves the early morning precip out of the instability axis fairly early on. As a result it develops some areas of greater than 4000j/kg surface cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Nice to see that it moves the early morning precip out of the instability axis fairly early on. As a result it develops some areas of greater than 4000j/kg surface cape. Yup only a glancing blow during the morning for northern IL and that sort of scenario could leave a boundary to be in play later. Also seems to be some potential for discrete action until upscale growth into a MCS occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Yup only a glancing blow during the morning for northern IL and that sort of scenario could leave a boundary to be in play later. Also seems to be some potential for discrete action until upscale growth into a MCS occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Very moist profiles with somewhat weak upper level winds on Sunday...makes me think that chasing prospects won't be so good as stuff should have a tendency to be HP/rain-wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 The 00z 4KM NAM paints an interesting picture for this area Sunday evening. These conditional setups are always interesting to follow. One thing that seems to happen more often than not is things slow down a bit so I'm wondering if that makes a difference between discreet cells or an MCS for the Chicago area. If the junk from Saturday night/Sunday morning can stay north of the area, it could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2015 Author Share Posted June 6, 2015 New day 2 has an enhanced risk for central IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 D2 Enhanced, discussion mentions the T word despite the veering winds at low levels later in the day.Will be interesting if an OFB cooks up from morning convection (which 00Z 4km NAM has southern fringe riding I-88) during the day before the southerward surging cold front arrives with a beefy MCS.FWIW 00Z 4km NAM had values over 5 of 1km EHI around Dixon area in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 It would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Split the Sunday talk into a new thread as we have an enhanced risk. Pretty decent 850-500 mb crossovers tomorrow. With some additional turning from the sfc-850 mb and a very moist environment, not surprised to see the T mention in the outlook. Tomorrow seems like a 5% kind of day in that regard with maybe some potential for an area of higher probs should trends warrant it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 From WICS-20 Springfield, IL meteorologist Thomas Patrick's Facebook page: Meteorologist Thomas Patrick added 2 new photos. 1 hr · Edited · SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 6/7 (Update Sat. a.m.) The risk has been upgraded to 3 - Enhanced as of this morning. And unlike a couple weeks ago when I called out the "bust", I think this will verify as a widespread high wind maker. As for the tornado risk: I'm going to bump that up a couple notches to coincide with the appropriate threat level. There is just enough shear and rotation for at least 1 or 2 tornadoes to form within the line. ---SUNDAY---Threat Level: 3 - EnhancedTiming: 7pm - 2amWinds: Up to 70mphHail: Up to Quarter SizeFlooding: Low, Most locations ½-1" of rainTornadoes: Isolated. 1-2 possible within risk area. Forecast Discussion: The big difference between yesterday's outlook at today is 1) timing has been delayed by a couple hours, and 2) Tornado risk has increased. This is because models have added more shear to the atmosphere as of late. More shear means more (and greater) rotation. So in addition to the multi-cell line of storms, there may be some embedded supercells. Those cells will have the greatest potential to produce tornadoes Sunday night. Still nearly 36 hours out from this event, so I just want to be sure everyone is weather-aware tomorrow evening. Until then, have a fantastic Saturday! -Thomas https://www.facebook.com/ThomasPatrickMeteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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