Stormsfury Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 kchs ended a 10 day streak of 95+ plus days yesterday (93 on Tues) for second longest aforementioned streak. Longest was 13 days and I can't remember what year that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Looks like the stretch of 90 degree days, will end tomorrow at 13 or 14! It's been an ugly stretch of heat, like we haven't seen in years! Hopefully , we can get some storms and rain, outside of the VA/NC border counties today and tomorrow ! Looking like 60/70% coverage around here tonight and tomorrow . I'll probably be in the 30% with Shetley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Looks like the stretch of 90 degree days, will end tomorrow at 13 or 14! It's been an ugly stretch of heat, like we haven't seen in years! Hopefully , we can get some storms and rain, outside of the VA/NC border counties today and tomorrow ! Looking like 60/70% coverage around here tonight and tomorrow . I'll probably be in the 30% with Shetley CAE is holding at 19 ......I have faith we'll see day 20 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Hints of some rainfall relief for me after a few weeks of subpar rainfall. Canadian is much more agressive with it than the GFS, but I'll take anything at this point. This is the first run the GFS has shown anything more than a quarter inch for the upstate. Canadian has been pretty consistent with having higher rainfall totals than the GFS. Watch it all disappear tonight though. Prob just another blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 The 18z GFS says much of SC and NC only gets around .25 through hour 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 The 18z GFS says much of SC and NC only gets around .25 through hour 288. Typical. GFS did the same thing a week ago. Hoping Canada is right, but leaning towards GFS being the correct solution based on how this summer has gone so far. Aside from the 1st week of June, we have consistently been in the precip minimum for the last couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I wonder what the reason is for the notable rain hole over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Never eeeeeeeeeever trust the Canadians with forecasting rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I wonder what the reason is for the notable rain hole over the Carolinas.There's a couple of negative A holes , in that region! I don't this week is going to be that wet and it's hard to get widespread rain coverage like that in the summer, hence the scattered tstorm mentions all summer. MBY could get 3" in one afternoon storm, while a mile down the road gets 0. Those maps are ridiculous , especially in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Never eeeeeeeeeever trust the Canadians with forecasting rainfall or snowfall .FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 GFS sure wants to bring the heat back near the end of its run. Hope its out on its own for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I wonder what the reason is for the notable rain hole over the Carolinas. Part of the reason is that in a northwest flow, most of the 2 states would be in downsloping which dries things out east of the mountains. This effect weakens near the coast, thus those sections also get decent rain at times in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 FYP Haha, yeah that is truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 The 6z GFS would keep the heat just south of my area(RDU) for the 4th. Hopefully that can push farther south and provide more on this board a cool(...relevant) upcoming Saturday. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=06&fhour=132¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Here's what they're showing locally for the weekend... Wouldn't be bad if I had a beach Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Independence Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Here's what they're showing locally for the weekend... Wouldn't be bad if I had a beach Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Independence Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Hopefully the 6z GFS is on to something and it's cooler for us. Looks like the NWS was going with the 0z which showed this: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=138¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Well it looks like the 6z GFS was just a dream. The 12z shows the RDU area over 90 again for the 4th. The cooler air is not too far to our north so I guess it's still possible that the 6z could win out; but I wont hold my breath. 12z http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Looks like we at least have shotgun pops starting tomorrow through the 4th. Seems like 4th of July is always around the time our rain shields finally move onto a different location. Being in the 90's all the time wouldn't be so bad if we could get some decent storms so I don't have to spend 2 hours outside watering my plants and the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 YTD departure from normal. Not too bad in the upstate yet, but could be in the beginnings of a drought by the end of summer if we can't break out of this pattern. Much of the SE is below normal this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Part of the reason is that in a northwest flow, most of the 2 states would be in downsloping which dries things out east of the mountains. This effect weakens near the coast, thus those sections also get decent rain at times in this pattern. Thanks jshetley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I'm still holding out hope for temps below 90 for the 4th, at least for central NC areas.6z GFS:http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=108¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=falseIt will come down to how far south(and if) the cool front can push into NC.Edit: From RAHIT IS HARD TO PIN POINT ON THE DAYS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHESTCHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR OUT. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WEREFAVORED IN PLACEMENT OF THE MEAN FRONTAL POSITIONS. THIS APPLICATIONWOULD KEEP THE FRONTS FROM COMPLETELY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH OURREGION AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... SEVERALFRONTS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NC (MOSTLYLIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTOSUNDAY). IT IS THOSE PERIODS IN WHICH THERE MAY BE ENHANCEDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE WILL FORECAST HIGHER POP AT THOSE TIMES...BUT KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POP FOR DIURNAL STORMS IN BETWEEN THEFRONTAL APPROACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Core of warm anomalies for June have been focused in our subforum (along with super warm in PNW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Late June runs of CFS for July suggest slightly above normal temps, with the most precip focused from the southwest to southern plains to TN Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 12z GFS shows a wet 4th for northern NC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150630+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 48 hours totals from 0z Monday: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=132ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_132_precip_p48.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150630+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 ....She's a beaut clark! I don't think I've ever seen basically the same thing over and over and over like what has happened so far this spring/summer. Literally almost every run of the GFS has this same hole continuously for the last couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 ....She's a beaut clark! Amazeballs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The 18z GFS still has that precip hole over us and brings 105+ heat back too. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Looks like an unsettled week ahead... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WEST-EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SKIRTING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN OUR ONGOING LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE...GRADUATED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF LATER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE TREND WILL STILL TEND TO FAVOR A DIURNAL PATTERN OF INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING MAX HEATING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUBJECT TO DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Some interesting climatological data I discovered from SPC. Never paid any attention to these before, but thought they were interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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