el Nino Watch

[Rainman]

Unless I'm in a moderate risk, summer bores the hell out of me.  But this el Nino has been keeping my interest for sure.  I'll put a little summary below and maybe we can talk about it going forward.  

 

Image 1:  SST anomalies continue to increase as we near the beginning of meteorological summer.  This is especially true in the eastern Nino regions, where very warm water associated with a strong Kelvin wave is surfacing.

Image 2:  Very warm subsurface anomalies will provide plenty of support in the coming weeks and months.  If you watch the animation, it appears that a second Kelvin wave is taking shape around 170E.

 

 

Image 3:  Upper level wind anomalies show anomalous flow toward the west centered around 5-10N.  This is a common feature during el Nino, as it indicates a slowing/weakening of the Walker Cell.  Also take note of the subtropical jet from 20-30N that is streaming across Baja.  This feature has been pounding the southern Plains!

 

Image 4:  Not a lot to see here aside from the low level counterpart of the previous slide.  The anomalous flow toward the east represents weakening of tropical easterlies.  Another classic el Nino signature.

 

 

Image 5:  Current OLR anomalies are outstanding.  Forcing near the dateline is becoming increasingly based further east.  This may change briefly if another Kelvin wave takes shape, but it would most likely be a transient change.  There is no reason to think this isn't a full-fledged basin-wide el Nino right through the summer.  The SSTAs in the far east tropical Pacific are not going anywhere.  Anyway, look at the plume connecting the tropics to Mexico and the southern United States.  Yikes.

 

 

This el Nino is exceptionally well-coupled considering it only began taking off recently.  Shades of 1997 certainly exist given its origins in a monster March Kelvin wave.  Like 1997, climate models indicate we will be raging in a mature el Nino state for all of summer.

 

I am curious if anyone has any good analogs for this summer, because I couldn't find ANY.  Sure, there are some years with solid el Ninos at this point, but even in 1997, the Hadley Cell/subtropical jet/coupling were not nearly this impressive this early in this season.  In fact, every respectable analog I found just didn't compare.  I'm not trying to overstate anything here.  I'm just saying ocean-atmosphere coupling are really cruising along as we start summer.

 

At the rate we are going, the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, especially further east, are going to end up warm and dry while the plains get pounded.

 

Image 6:  Finally, here is the last 30 days.  Ongoing, but weakening +PDO, STJ-induced low off the southwest coast, higher heights dominating the east and northeast (seems to be increasing lately and looks to be further increasing in the coming week), and +NAO.

[Hoosier]

Some of the progs are really bullish on the Nino. Predictability obviously lessens many months into the future but hard to believe it won't be a significant player come winter.

[Rainman]

I'm inclined to agree considering it's already a significant player late this spring.  It is so well-coupled, I think the odds are titled in favor of a stronger event.

[michsnowfreak]

I had a list of El Nino winters since the 1970s (instead of just going back to 1950) that I made during the last Nino. Dont remember the source for what classified them as weak, moderate, or strong, but the list is as follows:

 

Strong El Ninos

1877-78

1888-89

1896-97

1899-00

1902-03

1940-41

1957-58

1972-73

1982-83

1991-92

1997-98

2009-10

 

Signal for a cool if not cold summer in Detroit during strong Ninos was overwhelming. Of these 12 years, only ONE had a hot summer (1991) and the remaining 11 featured below normal temps (2 of those summers were close to normal though still slightly cooler than normal, the rest cooler than normal).

 

Moderate El Ninos

1911-12

1914-15

1918-19

1925-26

1930-31

1941-42

1965-66

1968-69

1986-87

1987-88

1994-95

2002-03

2006-07

 

During the 13 moderate Ninos in Detroit, the summers had quite a different signal. 7 of them were in the normal range, with 4 hot summers and just 2 cool summers.

 

Weak El Ninos

1904-05

1905-06

1923-24

1939-40

1951-52

1953-54

1963-64

1969-70

1976-77

1977-78

2004-05

 

During the 11 weak Ninos in Detroit, cool summers once again dominated, with 6 being cool, though there were 3 in the normal range and 2 hot summers.

 

So, when tallying up these 36 summer Ninos since the 1870s, Detroit saw 19 summers that could be classified as cool summers, 7 summers which could be classified as hot summers, and 10 summers which saw temperatures in the normal range.

 

********************************

 

What is interesting to me is how overwhelming the signal for cool summer is during strong Ninos, but as for weak and moderate Ninos, as everything with the weather goes, there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, proving that Enso is just one factor that would determine the weather. Or rather, how much impact would Enso actually have on our weather in the Great Lakes?

 

Obviously Im far more concerned about winter than summer, but its pointless to analyze this far out as so much can and will change before Fall and Winter arrives. I will say that long ago the words "El Nino" used to make me cringe like no other, simply because two of the most infamous El Ninos (1982-83 & 1997-98) were terrible mild winters with low snowfall. But upon further inspection of all Nino years, obviously Enso is just one factor in winter weather, as looking at all 36 Nino winters, there was everything: heavy snow winters, very low snow winters, mild winters, cold winters.

 

One question I have for those more knowlegable with how Nino works, does this Nino look to be peaking earlier than normal (in later summer?)....I got that impression from some things Ive read, but I didnt know if I was misunderstanding it. I wonder what, if any, effect timing of the peak of Nino has on fall and winter?

[Rainman]

I am also looking ahead to winter, of course.  The way this baby is coupled and trucking along makes me think that we are in for a classic el Nino type of winter, but no need to jump the gun.  We'll see how it works out.  Just speculating :-D

 

I think Atlantic SSTs can't be ignored.  el Nino impacts are at their minimum during the summer while west Atlantic SST influence is at a maximum.  There is support for for a warm summer just by westward expansion of the Bermuda high, imo.  Hell, el Nino has been raging all month and DTW is +5 so far for May.

[michsnowfreak]

I am also looking ahead to winter, of course.  The way this baby is coupled and trucking along makes me think that we are in for a classic el Nino type of winter, but no need to jump the gun.  We'll see how it works out.  Just speculating :-D

 

I think Atlantic SSTs can't be ignored.  el Nino impacts are at their minimum during the summer while west Atlantic SST influence is at a maximum.  There is support for for a warm summer just by westward expansion of the Bermuda high, imo.  Hell, el Nino has been raging all month and DTW is +5 so far for May.

It will be interesting to see how the summer plays out...but I wouldnt say just because we have a warm May means a warm summer. I get what you are saying about the Bermuda high though. Although.....is this just another brief blip in the now almost 2.5 year running pattern of below normal temps dominating, or has the pattern started to break? Only time will tell.

Feb 2013: -0.9

Mar 2013: -2.6

Apr 2013: -2.8

May 2013: +3.9

Jun 2013: +0.2

Jul 2013: +0.4

Aug 2013: -0.1

Sep 2013: -0.3

Oct 2013: +0.9

Nov 2013: -4.0

Dec 2013: -3.3

Jan 2014: -9.2

Feb 2014: -8.7

Mar 2014: -8.5

Apr 2014: -0.3

May 2014: +1.7

Jun 2014: +1.1

Jul 2014: -3.7

Aug 2014: -0.5

Sep 2014: -0.9

Oct 2014: -0.3

Nov 2014: -5.7

Dec 2014: +3.5

Jan 2015: -4.4

Feb 2015:-14.0

Mar 2015: -2.7

Apr 2015: +0.8

May 2015: +?.?

 

As for winter....what is a "classic El Nino pattern" though? I would say about the best signal for El Nino is an increased likelihood of drier than normal precip overall, but as I said in my other post, the years-ago thought that El Nino was disaster for winter lovers was based on the fact that the two most infamous Ninos, 1982-83 & 1997-98, were craptastic winters. When you look at the wider scale of El Ninos, it gives a different perspective. When you look at everything (temps, precip, snowfall, snowcover, snowstorms) there is literally every kind of winter imaginable. Breaking everything down by simple averages, a strong Nino clearly favors a milder, lower snow winter and a weak El Nino clearly favors a colder, snowier winter, but even then, its a law of averages with distinct exceptions to both.

[Hoosier]

I am also looking ahead to winter, of course.  The way this baby is coupled and trucking along makes me think that we are in for a classic el Nino type of winter, but no need to jump the gun.  We'll see how it works out.  Just speculating :-D

 

I think Atlantic SSTs can't be ignored.  el Nino impacts are at their minimum during the summer while west Atlantic SST influence is at a maximum.  There is support for for a warm summer just by westward expansion of the Bermuda high, imo.  Hell, el Nino has been raging all month and DTW is +5 so far for May.

 

 

CFS is certainly hinting at ridging in the east for June.

[Rainman]

It will be interesting to see how the summer plays out...but I wouldnt say just because we have a warm May means a warm summer. I get what you are saying about the Bermuda high though. Although.....is this just another brief blip in the now almost 2.5 year running pattern of below normal temps dominating, or has the pattern started to break? Only time will tell.

Feb 2013: -0.9

Mar 2013: -2.6

Apr 2013: -2.8

May 2013: +3.9

Jun 2013: +0.2

Jul 2013: +0.4

Aug 2013: -0.1

Sep 2013: -0.3

Oct 2013: +0.9

Nov 2013: -4.0

Dec 2013: -3.3

Jan 2014: -9.2

Feb 2014: -8.7

Mar 2014: -8.5

Apr 2014: -0.3

May 2014: +1.7

Jun 2014: +1.1

Jul 2014: -3.7

Aug 2014: -0.5

Sep 2014: -0.9

Oct 2014: -0.3

Nov 2014: -5.7

Dec 2014: +3.5

Jan 2015: -4.4

Feb 2015:-14.0

Mar 2015: -2.7

Apr 2015: +0.8

May 2015: +?.?

 

As for winter....what is a "classic El Nino pattern" though? I would say about the best signal for El Nino is an increased likelihood of drier than normal precip overall, but as I said in my other post, the years-ago thought that El Nino was disaster for winter lovers was based on the fact that the two most infamous Ninos, 1982-83 & 1997-98, were craptastic winters. When you look at the wider scale of El Ninos, it gives a different perspective. When you look at everything (temps, precip, snowfall, snowcover, snowstorms) there is literally every kind of winter imaginable. Breaking everything down by simple averages, a strong Nino clearly favors a milder, lower snow winter and a weak El Nino clearly favors a colder, snowier winter, but even then, its a law of averages with distinct exceptions to both.

 

Yeah, I didn't mean to sound too excited.  When I said I think this has promise for a classic el Nino, I pretty much meant a craptastic winter.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, I didn't mean to sound too excited.  When I said I think this has promise for a classic el Nino, I pretty much meant a craptastic winter.

 

lol well....we are certainly due for a crappy winter, but I will ride the trend of the 21st century (ie, harsher winters) until the inevitable duds come along. Even in a period of harsh winters you get a crapper in there (see 2011-12).

 

When I look at the list of El Ninos, 7 stand out for featuring brutal cold &/or heavy snowfall (1899-00, 1911-12, 1925-26, 1951-52, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2002-03) and 7 stand out for their low snowfall (1888-89, 1918-19, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1982-83, 1997-98).

 

Also looking at the list, some of the winters with higher snowfall were still quite mild, and some of the lower snowfall years were quite cold. Like I said, something for everyone.

 

Forecasting is not my expertise anyway, but come Fall, if Nino is looking on the weaker side Id go for a harsh winter, if its on the stronger side Id go for a tame winter. But either way, with Enso being just one factor, even going with the majority can lead to a huge bust

[Rainman]

AprMay MEI came in at 1.57. Stronger than 1997 at this time and strongest since 1993 (except for the final stretch of the super Nino which extended well into 1998).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

We're cookin!

[Rainman]

CFSv2 for June

Winter preview. I'm on board with a 2015-2016 crapfest.

[Hoosier]

This Nino looks like it means business.  Wonder if we are on the way to the strongest event since 97-98?

[Toronto4]

Latest JAMSTEC has a western/central based El Nino event. I believe 1997-98 was a eastern based event. The JAMSTEC has warm temps for most of Canada and below normal temps for much of the United States, much like 2009-10.

[michsnowfreak]

Computer models winter forecasts ( cfs mild winter, Jamstec cold winter) mean nothing at this point. What im intrigued by is that, per my understanding, this nino will peak earlier than most Ninos. What kind of effect may that have on the weather?

[Toronto4]

Computer models winter forecasts ( cfs mild winter, Jamstec cold winter) mean nothing at this point. What im intrigued by is that, per my understanding, this nino will peak earlier than most Ninos. What kind of effect may that have on the weather?

 

 

Based on the information I'm reading from the main forum and several subforums (eg. New England, NYC), we are in uncharted territory with respect to this El Nino event. Not a lot of past analogs to lean on.

 

The one area I'm focusing on is the water temperatures in the NEPAC. It's been running warm for almost two years and according CoastalWx in the New England forum, some seasonal forecasts hint at ridging in that area (eg. -EPO) for the upcoming winter, like the last few winters. 

 

And here's this post by bluewave today in the NYC forum:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46340-possible-strongsuper-el-ni%C3%B1o-forming/page-5#entry3584154

 

I'm guessing an earlier peak would mean good news for cold and snowy weather for the upcoming winter, especially in the second half. But that's just a guess.

[Hoosier]

They're giving it a greater than 90% chance of continuing through fall, and an 85% chance of it lasting through next winter

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[michsnowfreak]

This Nino looks to have an unusually early peak...an analog for such an occurrence could be 1987-88. Interesting because number 1, the summer of 1987 was a hot summer (the average Nino summer usually runs cooler), and the winter of '87-88 wasnt bad.

[Rainman]

We obviously need to see where we stand once fall comes around, but with such a strong event ongoing so early in the year, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to lean on that "classic" el Nino climatology for winter expectations.  But I agree, it's obviously too early to say much more than that at this point.  I will say that the abundance of warm water and strongly coupled circulation and ongoing trends really makes this modoki talk silly, imo.  This is obviously a full-fledged basin-wide event.

 

As for analogs, there really aren't any.  1997 developed similarly during the spring and summer and is the best analog in that regard, but it was also coming out of a la Nina, so it's difficult to draw any conclusions for summer.  1957 might be the best summer analog, but I don't think it's a good one.  IMO, the best analogs for Jun15 through the end of summer might be May 1 through Jun 14

 

I am expecting another overlap of intraseasonal variability with el Nino forcing by the end of the month, similar to what we saw in May with wet weather across the south.  It will be interesting to see where the next episode sets up and how impactful it is.

[Rainman]

Round and round she goes!  This is what I meant by intraseasonal variability.  I prefer to loop the bottom one bottom one and speed it up for illustrative purposes.  It will enhance el Nino convection when it reaches the east Pac.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml

[hawkeye_wx]

I've seen 1997 referenced several times regarding the current el nino pattern.  There is already one big difference in our weather this summer vs 1997.  Cedar Rapids has already received more rain this June than during the entire 1997 summer.  The summer of '97 was very dry here.

[Jonger]

This is looking like a "no sprinkler needed" summer.

[michsnowfreak]

I dont even know if there is a "classic" el nino winter pattern haha. Milder & drier than normal perhaps, but even then there is NO clear signal. As long as its not another 82-83 or 97-98 ill live. The last two winters in SE MI resembled either the Upper Peninsula or the Tundra...as much as I loved it, that is not normal. But of course, neither is 82-83 or 97-98.

[Rainman]

I know what you mean.  el Nino climatology is pretty useless.  Except maybe this year, since el Nino climatology is disproportionately dominated by strong events.  Anything less than a strong event and I really would never even consider mentioning el Nino climo.

 

To completely contradict what I just said, I've read some material that suggests the high-AAM el Ninos may be a thing of the past, at least for the time being.  The nature of interaction with the tropics with the mid latitudes may be fundamentally different than 82 or 97.   Not my area of expertise though. 82 and 97 were both raging in terms of AAM, but despite this current Nino being stronger in the tropics than 97 (at the same stage), global AAM right now is actually NEGATIVE.  Not sure what the implications of that are off the top of my head.  Maybe someone else knows.

[roardog]

I know what you mean.  el Nino climatology is pretty useless.  Except maybe this year, since el Nino climatology is disproportionately dominated by strong events.  Anything less than a strong event and I really would never even consider mentioning el Nino climo.

 

To completely contradict what I just said, I've read some material that suggests the high-AAM el Ninos may be a thing of the past, at least for the time being.  The nature of interaction with the tropics with the mid latitudes may be fundamentally different than 82 or 97.   Not my area of expertise though. 82 and 97 were both raging in terms of AAM, but despite this current Nino being stronger in the tropics than 97 (at the same stage), global AAM right now is actually NEGATIVE.  Not sure what the implications of that are off the top of my head.  Maybe someone else knows.

This is a really interesting Nino. It's a second year Nino that didn't fade away during the early Spring like many have done. This one just kept trucking along. The PDO has also been declining now since December. Usually a Nino of this strength causes the opposite to occur .If this does peak early, how will that impact Winter? Will the PDO continue to decline? Are we headed back to a -PDO next year? Interesting times ahead.

[Hoosier]

So since the technical definition of an El Nino is 5 consecutive tri-monthly readings of +0.5C or greater, apparently this is not officially an El Nino yet since the JFM reading of 0.4C interrupted it? 

 

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Hoosier]

FWIW, the AMJ reading in region 3.4 was 0.9, which is the highest AMJ reading (since 1950) in developing Nino years, aka years where Nino wasn't declining.

[Hoosier]

The CFS is really something...recent runs actually seem a bit stronger with a trimonthly peak over 3.0 in region 3.4, which would blow the doors off of what happened in 97-98. The farther west that the warm anomalies are, the better it should be for winter lovers. Really fascinating event.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The CFS is really something...recent runs actually seem a bit stronger with a trimonthly peak over 3.0 in region 3.4, which would blow the doors off of what happened in 97-98. The farther west that the warm anomalies are, the better it should be for winter lovers. Really fascinating event.

It's strange that JAMSTEC is less east-based with the Nino than CFS, yet it's considerably warmer. 

[Hoosier]

It's strange that JAMSTEC is less east-based with the Nino than CFS, yet it's considerably warmer. 

 

 

FWIW, I read something in the New England subforum about the JAMSTEC having a warm bias at 2m. 

[Hoosier]

I've been checking these charts fairly often...not every day, so I can't say that this is the highest it's been but it's the highest I remember seeing.  You know you've got something crazy about to unfold when even the lowest members have a peak over 2.5.