Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

[PB GFI]

Why the exclusion of 1957 as an analog?

Tom, JB wrote a piece today responding directly to your question .

[Isotherm]

Tom, JB wrote a piece today responding directly to your question .

 

 

Paul - thanks for mentioning it to him; it's nice you have that connection. I did read his write-up earlier and it was quite interesting.

[dmillz25]

Paul - thanks for mentioning it to him; it's nice you have that connection. I did read his write-up earlier and it was quite interesting.

Could i get the link to that write up? Thanks

[snowman19]

Eric Blake tweeted earlier about the continuing steady push eastward of the warm pool over the last month due to the non stop wwbs and downwelling kelvin waves, as well as the strong -SOI bursts. We are clearly moving further and further away from a modoki event, not that this ever was a modoki to begin with. Here is a good animation he made of it: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/629743655071432705

[dmillz25]

Eric Blake tweeted earlier about the continuing steady push eastward of the warm pool over the last month due to the non stop wwbs and downwelling kelvin waves, as well as the strong -SOI bursts. We are clearly moving further and further away from a modoki event, not that this ever was a modoki to begin with. Here is a good animation he made of it: https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/629743655071432705

This is probably going to end up central based like alot of Mets are saying

[PB GFI]

Could i get the link to that write up? Thanks

Hey man. It's on the WB premium site. It's a pay site , so I can't post it.

We are clearly moving towards a basin wide event and by the time we get to the fall . ALL of the models will have cooled off the 1.2 region and warmed the 3.4

Don't worry about the guys pushing an east based event in time for winter. It's not happening.

[PB GFI]

I noticed in that article Don, they found little if any correlation with the NAO

Which article are you referring to ?

[Yanksfan]

Hey man. It's on the WB premium site. It's a pay site , so I can't post it.

We are clearly moving towards a basin wide event and by the time we get to the fall ALL of the models will have cooled off the 1.2 region and warned the 3.4

Don't worry about the guys pushing an east based eevent. It's not happening.

With an eastern based event probably causing the EPO to go positive, while a western based would go negative, what would a basin wide event result in?

[PB GFI]

With an eastern based event probably causing the EPO to go positive, while a western based would go negative, what would a basin wide event result in?

An east based event would tend to eat into the warmer waters In the epo region . A basin wide event alone would not help or hurt the EPO region.

But alone it doesn't kill a neg EPO .

[Yanksfan]

An east based event would tend to eat into the warmer waters In the epo region . A basin wide event alone would not help or hurt the EPO region.

But alone it doesn't kill a neg EPO .

So other factors will be in play. With such a strong anomaly with our EL Nino this year anything is possible. There might be a scenario where we have have a -EPO/-NAO. Imagine that with a firehose of a subtropical jet. On the other end of the spectrum, we could also torch if things don't go our way. Next couple of months will be crucial.

[PB GFI]

4. AO: Thanks to WSI's research, there is an above climatological probability of an AO- winter. The predominant AO state is difficult to forecast, so one will have to see how things evolve with regard to the AO as meteorological winter approaches. Earlier much touted tools such as the SAI and OPI have failed during the last two years and spectacularly last winter. Those tools likely rest on relationships that are weaker than had been envisioned when the tools looked good in a hindcasting environment. Strength of the AO- will be important, as the 1997-98 El Niño event overwhelmed the blocking that occurred during that winter. At the same time, the historic blocking during winter 2009-10 dominated the hemispheric pattern. Difficult as predicting the predominant AO state is, trying to reasonably estimate the strength of the blocking is all but impossible. None of the literature suggests that strength of blocking can be predicted with reasonable accuracy beyond 10-15 days.

I like the CORRELATION between July blocking and the winter here .

As per the WSI piece .

So, the natural question to ask now is “Does big summer blocking typically portend blocking risks the following winter?” A quick analysis of the data suggests that the answer is an emphatic “yes”. In fact, of the 10 “blockiest” Julys, all 10 exhibited negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) values in aggregate during the following winter (below),

BOTTOM LINE: The July blocking is likely telling us something about the upcoming winter, namely that cooler risks are definitely on the table, even with the expected strong El Nino base state.

It is nice to see some of the modeling and analogs show the potential of a STJ combined with a - AO/NAO be on the table .

[PB GFI]

So other factors will be in play. With such a strong anomaly with our EL Nino this year anything is possible. There might be a scenario where we have have a -EPO/-NAO. Imagine that with a firehose of a subtropical jet. On the other end of the spectrum, we could also torch if things don't go our way. Next couple of months will be crucial.

 

 

See post above , it is possible . Not probable yet , but possible . 

[Yanksfan]

See post above , it is possible . Not probable yet , but possible . 

I've got a feeling this winter could see some wild swings with bouts of snow and cold mixed in with warm spells. With this El Nino event looking more likely to be basin wide, we will be more dependent on the Atlantic which in case nobody has noticed has been highly unpredictable lately. Just look at last winter case in point.

[snowman19]

Which article are you referring to ?

The research HM did on it. He posted the response to WSI: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/629375177793630208

[snowman19]

See post above , it is possible . Not probable yet , but possible .

We need the -EPO, if a +EPO and GOA vortex develop the Pacific maritime floodgates open and a -AO and -NAO would not help and they would get steamrolled by the Pacific signal. Coastalwx said it in the New England forum yesterday, all you would do is push crap Canadian air south (with the -NAO/-AO) that is getting overrun by PAC air in that situation and you would not help anyone except maybe interior northern New England

[PB GFI]

We need the -EPO, if a +EPO and GOA vortex develop the Pacific maritime floodgates open and a -AO and -NAO would not help and they would get steamrolled by the Pacific signal. Coastalwx said it in the New England forum yesterday, all you would do is push crap Canadian air south (with the -NAO/-AO) that is getting overrun by PAC air in that situation and you would not help anyone except maybe interior northern New England

It is true that " source region " matters and Canadian air is different that Pacific cooled air . However when you are talking in terms of snowfall remember it just needs to be cold enough .

A strong STJ would bring a mild moist flow but if you are blocking up the higher latitudes that " crap Canadian " air turns into  plus 1 SD in Manitoba it is still below normal here and would be cold enough to create frozen precip  with blocking in place .

In fact " too much " blocking and the MA is ground zero . Frigid does not always equal snow .

That said the prospects of a STJ combined with a - NAO would be a nice problem to have .

[ClicheVortex2014]

This was posted over on Accuweather's forums... here's JB's latest:

 

 "I like what I am seeing relative to our ideas of another big snow winter for much of the nation, though more in the south and east than in the northern tier of states. But the ECMWF continues to show the major ridge over NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA, NOT SOUTHEAST CANADA. It continues to show the ENSO 3.4 warmer than 1.2 and a much broader warm water pool off the west coast, not being sliced into from the west. The big problem will be California rain as the ECMWF is suggesting alot of dryness central and north. It has lower than normal pressures from the gulf up the east coast and above normal precip through the south and the east. If I were to score it in analog weight, I would have 86-87 first, 09-10 second, 57-58 3rd. a blend of 97-98,82-83,72-73 would come in 4th as one must respect the analog to previous super ninos, but again this has a very different look overall."

 

 

As soon as I saw "JB", I knew what was going to be said. It's interesting that his #1 and #2 analogs are moderate Ninos, and #3 and #4 are strong and super Ninos, when this is clearly going to be a strong or super Nino... but whatever... he's JB.

[Isotherm]

I agree with you that we'll need -EPO intervals to have a shot at above normal snowfall in NYC with a stronger El Nino.

The +EPO in 1965-1966 nullified the effects of the strongly -AO and NYC finished with below normal snowfall. 1957-1958

finished with above normal snowfall after a strong -EPO drop especially  for the famous March 1958 heavy snows.

 

 

I'd argue that a +PNA is more important than the -EPO for above normal snows in our area. Both December 1957 and January 1958 were almost entirely +EPO, yet the period was still fairly snowy, totaling about 18" in Central Park. As long as you can achieve western ridge spikes, downstream short wave amplification and subsequently east coast cyclogenesis is possible.

[Isotherm]

We need the -EPO, if a +EPO and GOA vortex develop the Pacific maritime floodgates open and a -AO and -NAO would not help and they would get steamrolled by the Pacific signal. Coastalwx said it in the New England forum yesterday, all you would do is push crap Canadian air south (with the -NAO/-AO) that is getting overrun by PAC air in that situation and you would not help anyone except maybe interior northern New England

 

 

See my post thereafter in that thread. The GOA vortex is far from a death sentence in +ENSO, depending upon the orientation of low height anomalies.

 

Mean temperatures in January 1966 and February 1966 at New Brunswick NJ were 30.1F and 32.7F respectively -- both slightly colder than normal months, and sufficiently cold for snowfall.

 

January/Feb 1983 at New Brunswick -- 31.4F and 32.8F respectively. Again, a slightly colder than normal period in a +EPO.

 

January/Feb 1958. 30.7F and 27.5F for Jan/Feb respectively.

 

Same deal with 2009-10 [+EPO / colder than normal Jan-Feb].

 

Point being - no; extreme cold akin to this past February would be unlikely in a +EPO regime, but colder than normal temperatures are possible. Note Paul's point about the above normal air in Canada, but below normal here due to differences in averages. Having a NAO/AO blocking pattern that forces that airmass southward into the Northeast would be more than sufficient to set the stage for winter events.

[uncle W]

with any cold air at all this winter will have some bright spots...without it don't expect much...Feb. 4-5th 1998 had over an inch of rain with a max/min of 36/34...That's close to freezing precipitation...outside of that the best chances for snow came in December 97...1982-83 had a great period of weather the first two weeks in February...January had a near miss storm and a cold week after that...December 82 had a few cold days with snow on the 12th but the rest of the month before and after was mild...1972-73 best chances for snow were shunted south of the area...It had periods of cold and February was cold...inland runners galore with heavy rains for the big three...1957-58 had more than half its snow fall as wet snow...1963-64 had at least a third of its snow fall as wet snow...wet snow with temperatures 32-34 degrees...most of 1991-92's snow fell as wet snow after the middle of March...March 58 had a 4.1" very wet snow on the 14th and 11.8" of the same on the 21st...temperatures were in the 31-33 range...Feb. and March 1964 had snowstorms with temps ranging from 32-34...The track of these storms were perfect and some of them started as rain...

[dmillz25]

Hey man. It's on the WB premium site. It's a pay site , so I can't post it.

We are clearly moving towards a basin wide event and by the time we get to the fall . ALL of the models will have cooled off the 1.2 region and warmed the 3.4

Don't worry about the guys pushing an east based event in time for winter. It's not happening.

Not a problem thanks

[snowman19]

Tweet from a couple days ago from Dr. Mike Ventrice, tropical expert meteorologist who created the Atmospheric ENSO Index (AEI): "@MJVentrice: Based off the diagnostics I've created to monitor atmospheric interaction, this event is already at a Super state". The region 3.4 ssts just haven't hit the magical official +2.0C, yet.....

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Tweet from a couple days ago from Dr. Mike Ventrice, tropical expert meteorologist who created the Atmospheric ENSO Index (AEI): "@MJVentrice: Based off the diagnostics I've created to monitor atmospheric interaction, this event is already at a Super state". The region 3.4 ssts just haven't hit the magical official +2.0C, yet.....

It will hit +2.0C soon. Maybe near peak?

[snowman19]

It will hit +2.0C soon. Maybe near peak?

All models are not peaking it until November/December

[PB GFI]

All the models increase the 3.4 basin through the fall however it is also true that all of the modeling cools the 1.2 regions during the same period.

The new Jamstec should be out in the next few days. I am curious to see its heat expansion west through Dec

[snowman19]

Yet another strong wwb is organizing, this Nino is starting to rapidly intensify and you can see the ssts warming on the TAO updates. +1.9C or higher in region 3.4 is very likely by the end of this month

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yet another strong wwb is organizing, this Nino is starting to rapidly intensify and you can see the ssts warming on the TAO updates. +1.9C or higher in region 3.4 is very likely by the end of this month

Region 3.4 is already at +1.8C as of today 12z per Tropicaltidbits. ">1.9C by the end of this month" is pretty conservative assuming Tropicaltidbits' reading is even remotely accurate.

 

[snowman19]

Region 3.4 is already at +1.8C as of today 12z per Tropicaltidbits. ">1.9C by the end of this month" is pretty conservative assuming Tropicaltidbits' reading is even remotely accurate.

I was just looking at that as well, I think we could very well be at +2.0C before this month's end, I was thinking we hit that in September, but the intensification is very rapid right now and the warm pool is progressing east at a rapid pace now. I have little doubt we will be in a solid Super El Niño come September now, the question will be how much over +2.0C we go in September

[ClicheVortex2014]

I was just looking at that as well, I think we could very well be at +2.0C before this month's end, I was thinking we hit that in September, but the intensification is very rapid right now and the warm pool is progressing east at a rapid pace now. I have little doubt we will be in a solid Super El Niño come September now, the question will be how much over +2.0C we go in September

As long as we achieve Super Nino, I really don't care what this winter's like. I'd prefer not to be frozen for a month like the past 2 winters, but I'm just anxious to see what a Super Nino brings to the table. I have no recollection of 1997-98 because I was too young... plus, I think it'll be interesting to forecast and observe a Super Nino winter with the technology we have now, compared to what we had in 97-98.

[Isotherm]

Reaching +2.0c or greater in the weeklies doesn't necessarily implicate that we're going to see a super Nino. In order to reach +2.0c for a trimonthly period, we need to have sustained very warm anomalies. We'll likely reach or surpass +2.0c in the weeklies, but the real question is: will that sustain itself?