IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 accumus? No need to give out that information at this range, not to mention quite foolish. Just be concerned with LE. Euro is 0.50"+ LE for most with 0.75"+ for NYC, extreme coastal Monmouth County, LI and extreme SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 1st time the SV maps bring the 1"-3" snow shade into northern Queens, Nassau/Suffolk on the 12z Euro. North and west is 2"-4"/3"-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I would be expecting 2-3" of heavy wet paste for the coastal plain and 3-6" once into the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 1st time the SV maps bring the 1"-3" snow shade into northern Queens, Nassau/Suffolk on the 12z Euro. North and west is 2"-4"/3"-5". IMO we should refrain from giving out snowfall accumulations at this range. They aren't important and will end up being likely wrong or will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 IMO we should refrain from giving out snowfall accumulations at this range. They aren't important and will end up being likely wrong or will change. Just giving an idea of the thermal profiles, which I believe SV to be very conservative with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Just giving an idea of the thermal profiles, which I believe SV to be very conservative with. This is probably going to end up being a very elevation reliant system. Not that the coast won't see accumulations, but I would expect the hill country to do the best in this setup, especially given climo. If we can get a stronger system and better dynamics then all bets would be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 PASTE JOB just outside the city SV maps take BL into acct . Layers looks better than that . DEF not OTS KNYC 78 850 -5 925 -4 BL 34 .2 85 850 -1925 0 BL 33 .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 PASTE JOB just outside the city SV maps take BL into acct . Layers looks better than that . DEF not OTS KNYC 78 850 -5 925 -4 BL 34 .2 85 850 -1 925 0 BL 33 .5 I read that you need 850mb temps at -6c or greater to support all snow in mid/late March and April because the air modifies quicker at the boundary layer than during the winter, especially during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I read that you need 850mb temps at -6c or greater to support all snow in mid/late March and April because the air modifies quicker at the boundary layer than during the winter, especially during the day Where did you read that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I read that you need 850mb temps at -6c or greater to support all snow in mid/late March and April because the air modifies quicker at the boundary layer than during the winter, especially during the dayYou need - 35 for all snow. Otherwise you taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 No snow accum after this next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Wow, lot of precip on EURO/JMA well northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Good afternoon everyone. The Euro Ens mean is SE of the op run, it takes the low pressure track just SE of the BM. With 540 thicknesses making it into southern CT and lower HV then crashing south as the low departs. Again this is the 51 member MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Good afternoon everyone. The Euro Ens mean is SE of the op run, it takes the low pressure track just SE of the BM. With 540 thicknesses making it into southern CT and lower HV then crashing south as the low departs. Again this is the 51 member MEAN. It's very similar to the op. For NYC the Ens is about .60" of precip. The op is .70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 It's very similar to the op. For NYC the Ens is about .60" of precip. The op is .70" Agreed. Nothing dramatic but a tad SE nonetheless. After wxbell updated, it's clear that a lot of members are NW of the mean. In fact a bunch track the SLP over ACK or even farther inland. It's actually strange looking how the mean low is so far south with, by the looks of it, all most all the members NW of the mean. The .5 contour runs through the LHV and nearly along i84 through RI and into SE MA. The .6 contour runs just west of NYC covers nearly all of LI and coastal CT and the southern half of RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Agreed. Nothing dramatic but a tad SE nonetheless. After wxbell updated, it's clear that a lot of members are NW of the mean. In fact a bunch track the SLP over ACK or even farther inland. It's actually strange looking how the mean low is so far south with, by the looks of it, all most all the members NW of the mean. The .5 contour runs through the LHV and nearly along i84 through RI and into SE MA. The .6 contour runs just west of NYC covers nearly all of LI and coastal CT and the southern half of RI. This might be a result of how the low interacts with the Great Lakes low. Perhaps there is either significant interaction or none. The 12z GFS and CMC OP runs show something like this, with CMC having the slp just SE of Cape Cod at 102, and the GFS putting it closer to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Where did you read that?Met Steve D. He said once you get into mid March and beyond, that 0c at 850mb no longer means snow like it does during the previous winter months. The airmass modifies much faster during this time of the year once you reach the boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Met Steve D. He said once you get into mid March and beyond, that 0c at 850mb no longer means snow like it does during the previous winter months. The airmass modifies much faster during this time of the year once you reach the boundary layerit does make sense although that guy doesn't have a clue about predicting weather. He's been wrong every time this year. GFS 18z was a quick hitting 2-4 for Friday and so was nam 18zSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 it does make sense although that guy doesn't have a clue about predicting weather. He's been wrong every time this year. GFS 18z was a quick hitting 2-4 for Friday and so was nam 18z Sent from my iPhone The nam is a dusting to inch of slop for everyone here with the exception of parts of central and southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Met Steve D. He said once you get into mid March and beyond, that 0c at 850mb no longer means snow like it does during the previous winter months. The airmass modifies much faster during this time of the year once you reach the boundary layer That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Phase changes don't happen at various temperatures based on what time of the year it is. Either Steve, or you, are probably referring to the guidelines about partial thicknesses. 540 partial thickness doesn't mean the same thing in March as it does in January, because its likely to represent colder aloft/warmer surface since the bl warms with a stronger sun angle. That's why we get more rain/snow mix and less sleet in the Spring- the SFC is usually the warmest part of the column. None of that however has anything to do with 850s being below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 18z gfs still does not like the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Phase changes don't happen at various temperatures based on what time of the year it is. Either Steve, or you, are probably referring to the guidelines about partial thicknesses. 540 partial thickness doesn't mean the same thing in March as it does in January, because its likely to represent colder aloft/warmer surface since the bl warms with a stronger sun angle. That's why we get more rain/snow mix and less sleet in the Spring- the SFC is usually the warmest part of the column. None of that however has anything to do with 850s being below freezing.I understood it to mean during daylight hours, in order to overcome the effects from a late March sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 it does make sense although that guy doesn't have a clue about predicting weather. He's been wrong every time this year. GFS 18z was a quick hitting 2-4 for Friday and so was nam 18z Sent from my iPhone 18z GFS definitely is NOT a quick hitting 2 to 4. We're going to need much more than .20 of precip to get 2 to 4 inches of snow during the daylight hours this time of year. GFS is basically white rain. We need the Euro solution to pan out to have a shot at a few slushy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I understood it to mean during daylight hours, in order to overcome the effects from a late March sun You're not understanding what part of the comment I'm arguing with. 850s isn't any more or less able to be used to determine p-type during the day in March than it is at night in January. Its partial thicknesses that CAN mean different things at different times of the year. 850mb T doesn't have any impact, nor serves as an indicator of temperature above or below that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I understood it to mean during daylight hours, in order to overcome the effects from a late March sunDude if he wrote that and I have way of knowing if he did It's wrong. Mid levels temps and its ability to dynamically cool the BL will always be determined by rates. You are conflating sun angle and sticking on pavement with the actual ability of what it takes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 NYC was in something of a dry slot during that storm. Boston isn't that different on April 1st and had 25". If the insane dynamics they had came through further southwest, NYC would've been crushed too. That one on 4/1/1997 was maybe two degrees away from delivering major snows to NYC & LI; parts of Westchester saw 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I remember that march 31/april 1 1997 storm well...we got 8 inches imby and it was bitter cold that morning plowing...a cruel April fools joke...I believe we had 60s and 70s earlier in the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 That one on 4/1/1997 was maybe two degrees away from delivering major snows to NYC & LI; parts of Westchester saw 18 inches. 37 Inches at Jewett ............. in East Central New York State 35 Inches at Platte Cove ........ in East Central New York State 33 Inches at Milford ............ in Central Massachusetts 30 Inches at Hopkinton .......... in Eastern Massachusetts 30 Inches at Shrewsbury ......... in Central Massachusetts 30 Inches at Ski Windham ........ in Southwestern Vermont 29 Inches at Prattsville ........ in East Central New York State 28 Inches at Broome ............. in East Central New York State 28 Inches at Burrillville ....... in Northern Rhode Island 28 Inches at Gilboa ............. in East Central New York State 27 Inches at Jaffrey ............ in Southern New Hampshire 26 Inches at Berne .............. in East Central New York State 26 Inches at West Townsend ...... in Eastern Massachusetts 25 Inches at Westerlo ........... in East Central New York State 24 Inches at Christiana ......... in Central Pennsylvania 22 Inches at Worcester .......... in Central Massachusetts 20 Inches at Taunton ............ in Southeastern Massachusetts 18 Inches at Brewster ........... in Southeastern New York State 18 Inches at Carmel ............. in Southeastern New York State Carmel & Brewster both right near the Putnam / Westchester line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Ski Windham is in the Catskills in NYS. We had just over 3" on 4/1/97. This time of year water freezes at a much lower temperature. At least I learned something useful from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.