2nd Year Nino stats SE US

[GaWx]

 1987-8, the last 2nd year Nino, gave much of the SE a fantastic winter wintrywise with the great 1/1988 IP/SN storm (ATL 4.2" IP; CLT: 12.1" SN). 1905-6 was really big at ATL (5.2") though a little below avg. at CLT (3.0"). 1900-1 had a major snow in Feb. in ATL (4.4") though not in CLT (1.0"). 1914-5 (7.4") and 1919-20 (4.9") gave Charlotte above avg. SN. 1940-1 gave them near avg. SN of 4.1". 1885-6 gave CLT barely below avg. (3.5").


I don't know if 1953-4 counts as a 2nd year, but it gave Charlotte 3.5" or barely below avg.


For 2nd year Nino's that had a short break in between: 1969-70 (4.5") and 1977-8 (5.5") were very cold and gave Charlotte above avg SN and 1958-9 gave just above avg. SN (4.3") there and at ATL (2.4"). 1896-7 were tremendous wintrywise in both ATL (6.3")  and CLT (12.1").


So, out of these 12, CLT had above avg. SN 7 times and below only 4 times. They had only one that had less than 3"! ATL had above avg. 5 times and below 7 times.

At CLT: Avg. SN/IP for these 12: 65.9"/12= 5.5" or ~135-40% of normal! Median:  4.45", which has to be well above their median.
At ATL: Avg SN/IP for these 12: 26.3"/12=2.2" or near normal. Median: 1.04", which is actually right at overall median of ~1.0".


Tempwise ATL: Very cold: 1977-8, 1969-70, 1885-6; Cold 1914-5; Cool: 1941-2, 1919-20, 1905-6, 1900-1, 1896-7 Normal: 1987-8; 1958-9; warm: 1953-4..so ATL and the SE overall easily averaged cooler than normal.

Analogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball!

Edited

[GaWx]

Keep in mind that 8 of the 12 ended up on the weaker side at peak and the CFSv2 could be too warm for 2015-6. The 4 that weren't weak in 2nd year: 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, and 1987-8. Of these 4, only 1896-7 was not already showing more warming. So, we'll see. Of these 4, ATL/CLT had well above avg. SN/IP in 3/2 of them.

Also, we're way overdue for a 2nd year Nino! There have been 12 over the last 135 years or one every 11 years. However, we haven't had one since 1986-8 or in 28 years! Next longest gap: 21 years between 1918-20 and 1939-42 (that was a triple).

If one would like the best shot at a cold winter based on these 12, root for a weak Nino. The four coldest of the 12 2nd year at ATL were all when there were back to back weak ones. One was warm but the PDO was quite neg. Obviously a -NAO/-AO would be helpful! If we can actually get the -NAO/-AO, maintain the +PDO, and get a weak Nino, look out for the potential for a very cold winter in 2015-6.

The four that weren't weak for the 2nd year were cool (3 times) to normal (once).

[LithiaWx]

Around this time last year we were looking at a possible Super Nino.  I'm not confident that we will even be in a Nino state come DJF 2015-2016.  We shall see, and analogs can seriously GTFO for the time being  Going to take some time to get over the OPI and other Analogs fails this season. 

[mackerel_sky]

Around this time last year we were looking at a possible Super Nino. I'm not confident that we will even be in a Nino state come DJF 2015-2016. We shall see, and analogs can seriously GTFO for the time being Going to take some time to get over the OPI and other Analogs fails this season.

Eurasia snow cover is already above normal! All in for 76/77 winter analog for the 15/16 winter! Gotta get one more cold one in before JB's multiyear warm winters start!

[No snow for you]

Thanks for posting. Here is an interesting article talking about Cyclone Pam and how it was so big, it caused trade winds to change and will cause an el nino by itself. 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/pam-was-so-big-she

[LithiaWx]

Thanks for posting. Here is an interesting article talking about Cyclone Pam and how it was so big, it caused trade winds to change and will cause an el nino by itself. 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/pam-was-so-big-she

 

That article really sounds like quack science to me.  Maybe there is something to it but after reading it seems doubtful to me that Pam has any significant impact on El Nino,  Certainly not the kind of impacts that the article claims.

[No snow for you]

That article really sounds like quack science to me. Maybe there is something to it but after reading it seems doubtful to me that Pam has any significant impact on El Nino, Certainly not the kind of impacts that the article claims.

very easily could be but it was a very powerful storm. Just looks like some of the models are showing the El Niño in April. Just found it interesting.

[mackerel_sky]

very easily could be but it was a very powerful storm. Just looks like some of the models are showing the El Niño in April. Just found it interesting.

Yeah, powerfull storms can have effects on the global pattern! The charts I found over the weekend , of forecast models for ENSO, actually have tthe niño all summer and slowly getting stronger into fall! And GaWx has a great write up and stats !

[superjames1992]

Thanks for posting. Here is an interesting article talking about Cyclone Pam and how it was so big, it caused trade winds to change and will cause an el nino by itself.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/pam-was-so-big-she

Why is Zero Hedge writing about meteorological phenomenon?

[No snow for you]

Why is Zero Hedge writing about meteorological phenomenon?

It is a guest writer. I think they are trying to claim CA will get a lot of rain from this. They would if it was a strong Nino, but I think most show it being weak to moderate Nino. 

 

I read a lot of stuff as I am a commodity and stock trader, like boards like this.  

[nrgjeff]

One Kelvin wave does not make or even ensure El Nino. Perhaps Pam and the Cat 1 were a result of, not cause of, the Kelvin wave? Author misses the difference between correlation and causation - typical of media where non-science majors write about science. The more relevant question about the Kelvin wave is impacts on April weather in the Southeast this year.

[No snow for you]

One Kelvin wave does not make or even ensure El Nino. Perhaps Pam and the Cat 1 were a result of, not cause of, the Kelvin wave? Author misses the difference between correlation and causation - typical of media where non-science majors write about science. The more relevant question about the Kelvin wave is impacts on April weather in the Southeast this year.

Thanks for the info. I really appreciate it. 

[mackerel_sky]

Keeping an eye on the forecasts for the niño!

Found this recent modeling for the niño and most are still showing the El Niño strengthening through the summer and into the fall and some modeling is forecasting a " super" niño, like 97-98! Looks like a 2nd year niño chance, is definately increasing and will be interesting to watch our winter 15/16 unfold!

[GaWx]

 To try to get some idea where we might be headed precipwise in the SE US for the rest of the year based on the past, I plotted some precip. anomalies for the average of high end moderate to strong 2nd year Nino's (1896, 1905, 1940, & 1987) as well as the super strong Nino's (1972, 1982, & 1997; 1877 and 1888 were excluded because the dataset I'm using goes back only to 1895):

 

April-May: dry SE other than NC; note how wet is much of OK and TX, consistent with what has been happening

 

June-July: wetter most areas (not far from normal most areas)

 

Aug-Oct.: dry!

 

Nov-Feb: wet most of SE; also look how wet is Cali & how dry is Pac NW due to further S than norm storm track!

 

 What does this tell me? Those areas that are pretty dry now will have a decent shot at wetter in June-July. However, if that were to not materialize, look out because Aug-Oct. have tended to be on the dry side. Beyond that, wet relief for especially eastern portions of NC/SC/GA as well as for FL would have a pretty good chance of commencing in Nov and continuing through winter. Even the CAD areas of NC/SC/GA averaged pretty close to normal in NDJF, which would imply fairly wet conditions being that that covers a fairly wet season per normal climo.

[mackerel_sky]

They just showed a graph of the forecasted ninos into the fall and alot of them were way higher than the 1997 niño , as they overlayed it with the 97 one. I'd say 80% of the forecasts for this fall had the numbers in the 3-3.5 range ! That would be the niño of all ninos!

[Cold Rain]

They just showed a graph of the forecasted ninos into the fall and alot of them were way higher than the 1997 niño , as they overlayed it with the 97 one. I'd say 80% of the forecasts for this fall had the numbers in the 3-3.5 range ! That would be the niño of all ninos!

Might as well go ahead and get ready to go from fall right into spring.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Might as well go ahead and get ready to go from fall right into spring.

You have no way of knowing what a Nino of that caliber would do. It could set up a PNA / PDO pattern that would produce the coldest winter in the SE since records have been kept. On the other hand it could be the warmest on record. My bets are that we will not see anything near those levels.

[superjames1992]

You have no way of knowing what a Nino of that caliber would do. It could set up a PNA / PDO pattern that would produce the coldest winter in the SE since records have been kept. On the other hand it could be the warmest on record. My bets are that we will not see anything near those levels.

 

It would be interesting to see, though.  Probably guaranteed warmest year on record globally if that were to happen, but all bets are off for how that translates regionally in the Southeast.  I'd guess it would be pretty wet, though IIRC it was very warm during the 1998 Super El Nino (current warmest year on record globally and the strongest El Nino on record, I believe).

 

EDIT: 1997-1998 wasn't too bad in the SE, but 1998-1999 was a torch.  Both were warm nationally.  Both were wetter than normal in the Southeast.

 

 

 

EDIT: The El Nino actually peaked in late fall/early winter 1997 and ENSO conditions were in a La Nina state by the winter of 1998-1999, so maybe the second graph isn't very relevant.

 

1997

-0.5

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.3

1998

2.2

1.8

1.4

0.9

0.4

-0.2

-0.7

-1.0

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

1999

-1.5

-1.3

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

 

Interestingly, El Nino conditions would not return until mid-2002...  The strongest El Nino since then was +1.6 in NDJ/DJF 2010 (shocker), but La Nina conditions have been preeminent since 1998, in general.

[GaWx]

Whereas a very strong El Nino would very likely mean not nearly as cold a winter as the last two for the E US as a whole, it would be unlikely to be warm in the SE US. Actually, there it would much more likely be near normal based on 1877-8, 1972-3, 1982-3, and 1997-8 though 1888-9 actually suggests it could be another chilly one, especially due to Feb.

Regarding wintry precip. in ATL when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-3, 1982-3, 1997-8) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-8, 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, 1987-8), ATL more often than not had one major winter storm:

1877-8: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a nonmajor ZR followed on 1/9/1878

1888-9: 6" 2/21/1889

1896-7: 6.2" 12/2/1896

1905-6: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906/measurable snow D, J, and F

1940-1: only T of snow

1972-3: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly IP; (also, historic snow hit central GA inFeb though ATL missed that one)

1982-3: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M

1987-8: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)

1997-8: only 0.6" 12/29/1997

In summary:

- 37" of S/IP for the these nine seasons in total or average of a whopping 4.1"/season, which is double the 2" normal, plus 1972-3 had a major ZR/1877-8 had a nonmajor ZR

- a whopping 7 of the 9 had above average wintry precip. and 6 of the 9 had a major winter storm (67%) vs. longterm average of closer to only 40%

- Whereas weak Nino's have been a good bit colder on average, at least ATL would still have quite favorable wintry precip. climo this winter assuming a strong to super strong upcoming Nino

- So, my very early educated guess for the winter of 2015-6 for ATL is for near normal DJF temp.'s with one nice sized to major wintry precip event leading to them getting above average wintry precip. for the season. Whereas 2014-5 busted at ATL for wintry precip. vs my forecast, I'm still optimistic about 2015-6's chances per the above data

[pcbjr]

Just from the summer peanut gallery -

 

Didn't we learn last winter that no matter how things stack up before winter actually gets here (early Siberian snow in October last year, and on and on; how many pros and us amateurs busted(?))  - one unknown variable we can't even imagine in June can skew the whole deal. Not to argue or question - just something I'd like to keep in mind going forward ....

 

Now back to my regularly scheduled north Florida thunderstorm ....

[GaWx]

Just from the summer peanut gallery -

 

Didn't we learn last winter that no matter how things stack up before winter actually gets here (early Siberian snow in October last year, and on and on; how many pros and us amateurs busted(?))  - one unknown variable we can't even imagine in June can skew the whole deal. Not to argue or question - just something I 'd like to keep in mind going forward ....

 

Now back to my regularly scheduled north Florida thunderstorm ....

 

 Yes, and good advice for sure. About all we can do this far in advance is to make educated guesses. Also, keep in mind what I put in the first post of this thread: "Analogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball!" So, even if we were now in Nov., the analogs for winter would still be just a tool. I laid out the data I saw so readers will see on what I'm basing my analysis and also others can take that data and do whatever they wish with it, if anything.

 

 I do think that the October Siberian snowcover has lost its luster bigtime as far as predictive value for our winter is concerned..

 

[mackerel_sky]

Yes, and good advice for sure. About all we can do this far in advance is to make educated guesses. Also, keep in mind what I put in the first post of this thread: "Analogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball!" So, even if we were now in Nov., the analogs for winter would still be just a tool. I laid out the data I saw so readers will see on what I'm basing my analysis and also others can take that data and do whatever they wish with it, if anything.

I do think that the October Siberian snowcover has lost its luster bigtime as far as predictive value for our winter is concerned..

Analogs are dead to me!

[GaWx]

Analogs are dead to me!

Thanks, Kevin. What is this, "Shark Tank"? I'm out! Well, because it's bedtime lol.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Whereas a very strong El Nino would very likely mean not nearly as cold a winter as the last two for the E US as a whole, it would be unlikely to be warm in the SE US. Actually, there it would much more likely be near normal based on 1877-8, 1972-3, 1982-3, and 1997-8 though 1888-9 actually suggests it could be another chilly one, especially due to Feb.

Regarding wintry precip. in ATL when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-3, 1982-3, 1997-8) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-8, 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, 1987-8), ATL more often than not had one major winter storm:

1877-8: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a nonmajor ZR followed on 1/9/1878

1888-9: 6" 2/21/1889

1896-7: 6.2" 12/2/1896

1905-6: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906/measurable snow D, J, and F

1940-1: only T of snow

1972-3: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly IP; (also, historic snow hit central GA inFeb though ATL missed that one)

1982-3: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M

1987-8: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow)

1997-8: only 0.6" 12/29/1997

In summary:

- 37" of S/IP for the these nine seasons in total or average of a whopping 4.1"/season, which is double the 2" normal, plus 1972-3 had a major ZR/1877-8 had a nonmajor ZR

- a whopping 7 of the 9 had above average wintry precip. and 6 of the 9 had a major winter storm (67%) vs. longterm average of closer to only 40%

- Whereas weak Nino's have been a good bit colder on average, at least ATL would still have quite favorable wintry precip. climo this winter assuming a strong to super strong upcoming Nino

- So, my very early educated guess for the winter of 2015-6 for ATL is for near normal DJF temp.'s with one nice sized to major wintry precip event leading to them getting above average wintry precip. for the season. Whereas 2014-5 busted at ATL for wintry precip. vs my forecast, I'm still optimistic about 2015-6's chances per the above data

 

Good work GaWx. Analogs are useful when it comes to overall patterns. Sure there will be outlier years, like the winter we just had, but the numbers don't lie. It will eventually follow the stats, if the sample size is big enough.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Larry, I know it's early, but what do you think the chances are of Atlanta getting as much snow as they had last winter ( a trace) ?

[mackerel_sky]

Larry, I know it's early, but what do you think the chances are of Atlanta getting as much snow as they had last winter ( a trace) ?

Not Larry , but ATL will get 6+ this winter and GSP will get 10+! This winter will be remembered!

[Cold Rain]

Not Larry , but ATL will get 6+ this winter and GSP will get 10+! This winter will be remembered!

 

And SE Wake and Packbacker's house will get .2.

[GaWx]

Larry, I know it's early, but what do you think the chances are of Atlanta getting as much snow as they had last winter ( a trace) ?

 

 Since 1890-1, 29 of 125 (23%) had either a T (28) or 0 (1) though only four of the 29 were Nino's. So, I'm now giving it ~90% chance that KATL sees more than a T in 15-16.

[GaWx]

Good work GaWx. Analogs are useful when it comes to overall patterns. Sure there will be outlier years, like the winter we just had, but the numbers don't lie. It will eventually follow the stats, if the sample size is big enough.

 

Thanks.

 

 Looking at the SOI outlook for June:

  Per the latest model consensus with an emphasis on the Euro, there is still no indication that the SOI is headed back to the strongly -SOI's that dominated most of May at least through ~6/16. So, as of now the projection for June 1-16 is for at most a modestly negative SOI. This raises the chance that June overall won't be a strongly -SOI month. IF that were to occur, it would represent a significant + diversion of this June's SOI from the solidly to strongly -SOI consensus of June for the nine analogs that I've found that were either (oncoming) 2nd year strong/super or standalone oncoming superstrong Nino's:

 

1997: -24.3

1987: -17.9

1982: -17.2

1972: -10.9

1940: -17.2

1905: -27.7

1896: -27.0

1888: -14.4

1877:   -7.0

 

 By the way, the July #'s were similar: -9.0, -17.3, -17.9, -17.3, -14.3,  -19.8,  -19.1, -15.5, -9.5