TheSnowman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM continues to show widespread 0.5"-1.0" of Snow. EURO is also quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm still not sold on it. Would like to see the real models show something at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm still not sold on it. Would like to see the real models show something at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z GFS came back NW with the anafrontal stuff. Seems like decent snows get close to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This is confusing...are we treating these as seperate events and thus seperate threads? I posted stuff in the pinned thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 LOL, It's all on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This is confusing...are we treating these as seperate events and thus seperate threads? I posted stuff in the pinned thread. Separate threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 As of now this looks like a south coast special to me given that the trend this winter in the mid-short range has been SE and weaker and the only model supporting a SNE wide moderate+ event is the NAM which has been ticking SE it's last several runs and can't be trusted in a situation like this when it's an outlier. Also think there will be a fairly sharp cutoff with this as the front doesn't seem to really move once it's established and the precip comes in and there's a decent amount of QPF with this to the south of that boundary. Worth keeping an eye on though because it wouldn't take a major change to make it a more interesting scenario for a lot more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 As of now this looks like a south coast special to me given that the trend this winter in the mid-short range has been SE and weaker and the only model supporting a SNE wide moderate+ event is the NAM which has been ticking SE it's last several runs and can't be trusted in a situation like this when it's an outlier. Worth keeping an eye on though because it wouldn't take a major change to make it a more interesting scenario for a lot more people. I said last night, the NAM will tic se for the rest of eternity. This has happened with every event ever since I was told we were entering a pattern that favored cne/nne. Can't buy a R/S line with a classic coastal front. Either cranberry bogs jack, or nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Fickle..... But could produce something half decent here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution. But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution. But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL. I don't believe it. No way. (Sarcasm deeper than a Weymouth drift). Man, 3 week winter here, as epic as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I said last night, the NAM will tic se for the rest of eternity. This has happened with every event ever since I was told we were entering a pattern that favored cne/nne. Can't buy a R/S line with a classic coastal front. Either cranberry bogs jack, or nada. you and me both in a relative sense we have been quite fooked this last 6 weeks - but only in a relative sense. I do have somewhere norht of 20 inches on the ground. I'm actuallly starting to think the winter will just fade away. Happy for it because we are building a house in the spring and I want clear thawed ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 you and me both in a relative sense we have been quite fooked this last 6 weeks - but only in a relative sense. I do have somewhere norht of 20 inches on the ground. I'm actuallly starting to think the winter will just fade away. Happy for it because we are building a house in the spring and I want clear thawed ground. Always thought that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Guys, you can complain about the last 3 weeks or last 2 weeks or whatever as much as you want...just don't do it in this thread. Go to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north. The height field shows some weakness. We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY. If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it. It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event. I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution. But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL. Climo is going to strike the south coast. Rain. It's gotta happen to get snow further inland. And I'm going with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Funny, a lot of you guys up over 100 inches are now having problems getting into the Meat of these last few systems. And alot of areas that couldn't buy the Big Big numbers that made the Epic stretch so amazing out east, are now picking up 6 and 8 inches at a clip. Which won't bring us up to your seasonal numbers of course, but are keeping this very exciting, and prolonging the Deep Deep winter feel with a deep deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north. The height field shows some weakness. We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY. If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it. It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event. I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around. I'd want to see just a bit more of that southwest energy get absorbed into the main trough to see the more robust scenario...I do agree that there is some room for it. Plenty of ensemble members have been showing much larger hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'd want to see just a bit more of that southwest energy get absorbed into the main trough to see the more robust scenario...I do agree that there is some room for it. Plenty of ensemble members have been showing much larger hits. I agree with your first sentence. I'm not seeing what I want to see... yet. Even last night's NAM wasn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro and the Ens being bullish and the Gefs leads me to believe this is coming far north.. Like not just a pike south deal only. But good snows getting up into SNH at least . These s stream waves love to move NW as you close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ukie looks like a warning event for the pike region to interior RI/CT...south coast is getting BL issues but probably also get good snows....here is Ukie 12h precip at 72 hours and it isn't over yet (and there's actually about a tenth prior to this frame too): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah the would be good. I thought the Canadian looked a bit better over the SW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's coming. Great agreement now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north. The height field shows some weakness. We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY. If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it. It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event. I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around. I hope you're right. The only overachiever we've had here this season was 11/26 with 12.5" and that was a classic anafrontal storm. While it's unlikely such an event would unfold again, I'm hoping for a few inches anyway. Not a lot of time with this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow GEFS look good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ukie looks like a warning event for the pike region to interior RI/CT...south coast is getting BL issues but probably also get good snows....here is Ukie 12h precip at 72 hours and it isn't over yet (and there's actually about a tenth prior to this frame too): I would expect the Precip gradient to be more SW- NE oriented, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS seems much better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's coming. Great agreement nowSouth of Pike Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north. The height field shows some weakness. We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY. If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it. It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event. I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around. Wow....bad luck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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