jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Post away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro, euro control, GGEM, and the GFS are showing a significant winter weather system for next week (Wed/Thurs) in parts of the mid and deep south and very cold air following. The UKIE is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Euro, euro control, GGEM, and the GFS are showing a significant winter weather system for next week (Wed/Thurs) in parts of the mid and deep south and very cold air following. The UKIE is not on board. This concerns me. I just haaaaad to name that snowman Ukie... gonna bite me haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This concerns me. I just haaaaad to name that snowman Ukie... gonna bite me haha! Not me the ukie was to far north with the last system and corrected south towards the euro on day 2. It will come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Not me the ukie was to far north with the last system and corrected south towards the euro on day 2. It will come around To be fair, the snowman looked like a "Ukie", some variation of the NAM just wouldn't have fit his character! You have a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 00z GfS is much faster with the front and the shortwave is slower and that's not what we want at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looking like it's probably going to produce some decent frozen precip over the region. But she's rolling out slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The GFS almost cut the energy off and left it behind . God now that would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 dont see much difference other for some reason the S/Jt is getting squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That run will basically be 1-3 along and north of 40 with some sleet/zr mixed in, but overall it doesn't bring the heavy anafrontal precip from the LP forming on the front that prior runs and other models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 see what the euro does,not sure why the GFS surpresses the S/JT all the sudden,bet the euro holds ground,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GGEM is a nice winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 dont see much difference other for some reason the S/Jt is getting squashed GFS is faster with frint and if that's correct we need the SW to eject sooner or it will get squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS is faster with frint and if that's correct we need the SW to eject sooner or it will get squashed still believe the euro will hold ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GEM is snowy in the East, icy/sleety out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 dont buy the huge HP that squishes the S/JT,the euro is right IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 LOL..almost 1" frozen on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 euro looks like 5" ip..5"sn..great run..lol...bna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The Euro is a long duration hammer job. The clown should be epic, especially from the Plateau and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 00z euro through 126 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The only thing about the last system through the Carolinas (and this is a different set-up) is that the models predicting big amounts busted badly because they failed to model properly the battle zone of warm and cold air. I am still not sure that I buy the second wave idea. The models are performing poorly, even SR models in real time aren't modeling things correctly. Now, what I do notice is the GOM is open for business on the GFS. It likes the idea of stalling a system for days and then generating a storm from it. It even tried modeling this off coastal Carolina. It almost looks tropical in nature even though they are not warm storms. So, this idea of a stalled front might deliver...stalled fronts used to produce big storms. Not so much lately. To me, a big storm moving along an old frontal boundary fits climo better(for March) than a stalled frontal boundary with overrunning. But the Arctic front looks real. But does it push this far south as temps that cold are rare this time of year? My gut says that if it is only an overrunning event that Indiana will be the big winner with snow and then ice down south or sleet. Middle and west would have the majority of a very mixed bag of precip. E TN gets very little. Now, if a slp forms on the stalled front...we have a totally different conversation. And that might be a possibility at some point during March. The GFS really wants to model that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The only thing about the last system through the Carolinas (and this is a different set-up) is that the models predicting big amounts busted badly because they failed to model properly the battle zone of warm and cold air. I am still not sure that I buy the second wave idea. The models are performing poorly, even SR models in real time aren't modeling things correctly. Now, what I do notice is the GOM is open for business on the GFS. It likes the idea of stalling a system for days and then generating a storm from it. It even tried modeling this off coastal Carolina. It almost looks tropical in nature even though they are not warm storms. So, this idea of a stalled front might deliver...stalled fronts used to produce big storms. Not so much lately. To me, a big storm moving along a old frontal boundary fits climo better(for March) than a stalled frontal boundary with overrunning. But the Arctic front looks real. But does it push this far south as temps that cold are rare this time of year? My gut says that if it is only an overrunning event that Indiana will be the big winner with snow and then ice down south or sleet. Middle and west would have the majority of a very mixed bag of precip. E TN gets very little. Now, if a slp forms on the stalled front...we have a totally different conversation. And that might be a possibility at some point during March. The GFS really wants to model that. If my memory serves me correctly, I believe it was a similar set up in Feb 1994 when we had the huge ice storm, especially bad north of Nashville but bad all over, that particular day was unusually warm but we had an arctic boundary come in and stall; it wasnt cold enough deep enough for snow so when the low developed it rained and rad but it was freezing rain. We were without power for over a week. The entry from the NWS in Nashville for the storm is below, hopefully we can avoid a repeat. Feb 09 1994- A major winter weather event strikes the mid state. Temperature at Nashville at midnight is 70 degrees, but a strong cold front sweeps through, with temperatures falling throughout the day. By noon, snow begins as the temperature falls to 32 degrees, and changes to freezing rain by evening. At midnight, the temperature is 23 degrees. By the following morning, the ground is covered by an inch of snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If my memory serves me correctly, I believe it was a similar set up in Feb 1994 when we had the huge ice storm, especially bad north of Nashville but bad all over, that particular day was unusually warm but we had an arctic boundary come in and stall; it wasnt cold enough deep enough for snow so when the low developed it rained and rad but it was freezing rain. We were without power for over a week. The entry from the NWS in Nashville for the storm is below, hopefully we can avoid a repeat. Feb 09 1994- A major winter weather event strikes the mid state. Temperature at Nashville at midnight is 70 degrees, but a strong cold front sweeps through, with temperatures falling throughout the day. By noon, snow begins as the temperature falls to 32 degrees, and changes to freezing rain by evening. At midnight, the temperature is 23 degrees. By the following morning, the ground is covered by an inch of snow and ice. If I remember correctly, that was one of the worst ice storms of my life so far. I was a senior in high school in Paris TN, Highway 641 was shutdown for days due to fallen pine trees (they used to line both sides for long stretches). The only way to get around my area was by ATV. Power was out for several days, we had the contents of our fridge/freezers out in the yard. Some of my family members ran generators but were without power for 3 or 4 weeks out in rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKSUN 12Z 01-MAR 5.1 4.7 1029 98 92 574 551 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 6.7 5.2 1029 98 99 0.24 577 553 MON 00Z 02-MAR 6.2 6.4 1028 99 99 0.10 576 554 MON 06Z 02-MAR 2.5 6.8 1029 98 98 0.06 576 553 MON 12Z 02-MAR -0.3 5.4 1033 96 87 0.11 575 550 MON 18Z 02-MAR 4.8 5.0 1032 80 69 0.00 577 551 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 2.3 7.1 1028 96 48 0.00 576 554 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 1.6 9.0 1025 98 29 0.00 576 556 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 6.6 10.4 1019 99 65 0.03 574 559 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 14.2 11.0 1015 97 98 0.15 573 561 WED 00Z 04-MAR 16.4 10.9 1010 95 70 0.03 570 562 WED 06Z 04-MAR 14.2 9.2 1010 98 99 0.87 568 560 WED 12Z 04-MAR 0.4 4.6 1019 96 93 0.68 567 552 WED 18Z 04-MAR -0.3 -0.6 1023 87 98 0.03 566 548 THU 00Z 05-MAR -5.3 -4.8 1027 96 97 0.34 565 544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z MAR01 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKSUN 12Z 01-MAR 2.8 6.9 1029 90 100 577 553 SUN 18Z 01-MAR 5.6 8.2 1029 98 97 0.14 579 555 MON 00Z 02-MAR 5.7 8.2 1028 98 99 0.10 579 556 MON 06Z 02-MAR 3.4 8.7 1030 94 99 0.14 580 556 MON 12Z 02-MAR 1.0 8.0 1031 91 99 0.13 579 554 MON 18Z 02-MAR 5.0 7.7 1031 79 96 0.06 580 555 TUE 00Z 03-MAR 4.6 9.3 1026 90 35 0.00 579 557 TUE 06Z 03-MAR 3.0 10.3 1024 98 29 0.00 579 560 TUE 12Z 03-MAR 8.3 11.1 1017 99 80 0.04 576 562 TUE 18Z 03-MAR 17.5 11.5 1013 94 65 0.07 574 562 WED 00Z 04-MAR 17.7 11.3 1010 96 99 0.17 572 563 WED 06Z 04-MAR 12.6 9.2 1013 94 94 1.04 570 559 WED 12Z 04-MAR 1.4 8.4 1019 89 90 0.14 568 552 WED 18Z 04-MAR -4.9 1.3 1025 96 99 0.31 567 548 THU 00Z 05-MAR -5.1 -3.1 1028 94 99 0.33 566 545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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