marsplex Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 So when do you think we will be seeing the ground again? Here in Sony Brook i think we will need a few days or more of over 40f temps, if its actually going to be over 40f with heavy rain on wed/thurs there might be a dent in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here is a pic i took today of the Mills Pond in Stony Brook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 July 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Hum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here is a pic i took today of the Mills Pond in Stony Brook Nice pic! March 1 is kind of a magic number for accelerating the melting of snowpack around here. That being said, there is still a solid 12" pack here and based on the model indications, if we can avoid a complete torch / drenching the middle of next week, this has a good chance of standing up another couple of weeks. There are too many complaints in this forum that the snowcover serves no purpose because it turns black in the city or other silly reasons. It does matter to me because I go out cross country skiing every chance I get (which is basically weekends). Conditions this past Sunday were quite good late in the day once the mixed precip had started to freeze up. I may have to play a little hooky part of Monday if we get the fresh snow Sunday night. I was rather hoping we'd get a fresh covering yesterday or today, but that didn't work out. There is a great base out there, so any fresh snow makes for excellent conditions. I've got metal edged BC skis (not randonee or telemark, but with a good edge) and can hold an edge when I need to so a little hard snow isn't a problem...plus it is much faster / glides better. The snow will be gone on the coastal plain long before April no matter what happens, so in the mean time what's the rush? Ain't no one planting tomatoes yet no matter how warm March gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ^^^Funny you mention tomatoes, as I planted one yesterday (indoors of course), it'll go outside in a few weeks. I'm not sure how long the snowpack will last, I don't see it going into the second half of March, no matter how cold it is. I'm noticing less and less snow everyday, whether it's below freezing or not. I want it gone asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 March 7th 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 ^^^Funny you mention tomatoes, as I planted one yesterday (indoors of course), it'll go outside in a few weeks. I'm not sure how long the snowpack will last, I don't see it going into the second half of March, no matter how cold it is. I'm noticing less and less snow everyday, whether it's below freezing or not. I want it gone asap. So selfish You have a good shot at getting rid of it next Wednesday. I don't think it will be gone yet on the north shore that soon, but having snow cover last past mid March on LI is darned near impossible...unless it keeps snowing every couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Going to be awhile here. We have 12-18 inches of cement depending on location. Even a 50 degree cutter would not do the trick-would need 2 of them or a week of warm temps/dews.... The parking lot piles are massive. Those will last well into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think the pack will take quite a hit over the next week to ten days. Combination of higher sun angle, generally warmer temps and possible rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think the pack will take quite a hit over the next week to ten days. Combination of higher sun angle, generally warmer temps and possible rainfall. A hit? It will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A hit? It will be gone. Well up here I still have a 10-15" snowpack and the bottom 6-8" might as well be a glacier. It's going to take over an inch of rain with temps well above freezing to completely melt it in one shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 A hit? It will be gone. Not here in my area. Stony Brook, Lake Grove, and the areas to the north east / west here on long island seem have its own unique weather. Its seriously different here, i have spots on my lawn over 12" still. Its going to need 2 days of rain and temps in the upper 40's - 50's to really knock the snow out. Mid march for sure is my date. I hope im wrong tho and it is sooner. Its hard working out side this winter. No more snow on the ground would be a huge plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Well up here I still have a 10-15" snowpack and the bottom 6-8" might as well be a glacier. It's going to take over an inch of rain with temps well above freezing to completely melt it in one shot. Which is basically what next week will bring. Possibly up to 2" with temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Which is basically what next week will bring. Possibly up to 2" with temps in the 50s.We will see, I'm not convinced yet since the trend has been South and weaker all Winter but if the front stalls in the right place then there could definitely be a rapid melt and related hydro concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think by the Ides of March the snowpack will be history in most places, with exceptions like those big snow piles in parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I think by the Ides of March the snowpack will be history in most places, with exceptions like those big snow piles in parking lots. Depending on what constitutes "most places", I strongly disagree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Depending on what constitutes "most places", I strongly disagree... Strenuously agree with your disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 If nothing else, the commentary in this thread highlights that there is a range of snowdepths and SWEs across the region. Some towns could melt out with a sunny 40 degree day and some are going to take a lot more than that. Areas in NJ that made up some ground with fluffy jackpots over the past couple of weeks have lost most of that now, while here snowdepth has barely fluctuated more than a couple of inches up and down since late January, except that there is now a lot more water in the pack. 12" still here, and I see 17" still reported in Carmel, which is nothing to sneeze at. Snow cover has gotten pretty sparse along the south shore towards the west end of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not here in my area. Stony Brook, Lake Grove, and the areas to the north east / west here on long island seem have its own unique weather. Its seriously different here, i have spots on my lawn over 12" still. I have to agree with this...the Mt Sinai / Port Jeff area...really the whole area from Rocky Point to Upper Brookville in Nassau County...sees the snow melt off slowly...the fact that the area is hilly...with so many north facing hills providing the needed protection from the sun...in conjunction with the wooded landscape...slow the melting of the snow. The cover has now been continuous here for 35 days...I think it will last for a total of about 60...so bare ground by about March 25th. The snowpack here is really more glacier than snowpack; this will also slow the melting process...and I think March will be reasonably cold with some more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 wednesday I think the models will start to trend much colder and a bit weaker low for this Wednesday event starting tomorrow. We could avoid a cutter if the classic 50/50 low from Sunday night holds confluence in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think we make it through the next week with a net gain. At least in the south shore where we were down to about 4" on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think we make it through the next week with a net gain. At least in the south shore where we were down to about 4" on average. You are not losing anything, 3-4 inches of snow followed by ZR and 33 and drizzle Wednesday will not take anything away. I was hoping we'd keep it through 3/31, but starting to think only a 20 percent chance of pulling that off. I don't think we can stay below 40 for the next 30 days with the sun strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 There is 12-18" here in Dobbs Ferry's wooded areas at decent elevations. I think it makes it through the first warm-up next week, especially in the north-facing slopes at 350'-400', but then the next warm-up before the cold arrives around the Equinox will kill it. The death of a great friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 There is 12-18" here in Dobbs Ferry's wooded areas at decent elevations. I think it makes it through the first warm-up next week, especially in the north-facing slopes at 350'-400', but then the next warm-up before the cold arrives around the Equinox will kill it. The death of a great friend. It shall return, as sure as the budding trees of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wait, its going to be cold snap around the first week of spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wait, its going to be cold snap around the first week of spring? Which probably means 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Maybe delete this thread before everyone realizes mikethehobbyist was more correct than anyone else lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 21" on the ground here with some serious glacier in the bottom layers. I'm thinking around the Equinox it's gone in Dobbs Ferry, unless we get another major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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