Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Trying to eliminate a little confusion around the potential for winter weather next week. The 4km nam and the RGEM are both showing the possibility for a few snow showers tomorrow around the SE along with more snow showers moving in Tuesday. 12z 4km nam Centered over CLT courtesy of Wxbell: Centered over ATL: And the 12z RGEM courtesy of AMWX: Monday @1pm Tuesday @7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro also showing the Tuesday potential. Looks like a bit of moisture will set up over frozen 850's Tuesday mid morning in NGA, N & Central SC, & Central/Western NC. Clown map bullseyes one spot in NGA with 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 15z SREF >1 snowfall probs as of Tuesday night. Looks really good for Central SC & N GA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thanks for breaking this out! It was getting hard to follow which event everyone was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 15Z Tuesday on the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thanks for breaking this out! It was getting hard to follow which event everyone was talking about. No problem man. 18z NAM still looking good for your area! Here is the snowfall map through Tuesday 1pm. Looking good for frozen precip in most of SC, N GA, & western parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thicknesses and 850 temps on the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC. Anybody have an idea what's going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC. Anybody have an idea what's going on here? I was wondering the same thing. Is there a down sloping issue or something? Talk about a terrible dry slot if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC. Anybody have an idea what's going on here? might be some type of down sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 might be some type of down sloping. That's what I was thinking, but it looks like winds from 900mb down are out of the East or Northeast. The 850mb winds do something weird though if you look at that maps. They are strong out of the south over North Ga during the best precip, but there's a relative lull over the upstate where the 850mb winds are more out of the west. This might be where the downsloping is coming into play..(between 850mb and 900mb layers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not sure why the hi-res models continue to put a minima in my back yard for this event. It seems like they want to jackpot northern GA and then skip over a few counties in SC before jackpotting North Central, SC. Anybody have an idea what's going on here? based on the soundings, i think it's under estimating the snow in some areas. It appears the main limiting factor is going to be overall precip amounts..not temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM bumped us to .2 QPF this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM bumped us to .2 QPF this run. Is it still dry slotting the upstate? I can't see the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12Z JMA has a sig. (1-2" or more for some?) snow on Tue AM 2/24 for at least the N 1/3 of GA.. at least down to Tony's place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Mby is in the jackpot zone. For some reason I'm really doubting we even see flakes from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12Z JMA has a sig. (1-2" or more for some?) snow on Tue AM 2/24 for at least the N 1/3 of GA.. at least down to Tony's place! Yeah, Ptree City has me in snow now with the point forecast Tues. morn. A change from earlier. Wed night they still have rain and 32, so I suspect they will just approach these one at a time as we should With all that moisture running underneath there's chances all week. And frozen precip begats cold so any of these episodes could trend colder during the day. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Mby is in the jackpot zone. For some reason I'm really doubting we even see flakes from this. You may be too far north for some of these chances T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z RGEM has light snow for RDU... RDU: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemreg&run=18&var=prcp〈=en&map=us ATL: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Atlanta&mod=gemreg&run=18&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 4km NAM sure is aggressive for SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS has a dusting tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS says nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS says nope. Yep GFS has no precip across the SE at this time frame but it really hasn't shown anything other then a NWF signature over the past 4 runs. The short range models on the other hand have pretty good potential as well as the Euro. It will be interesting to see which is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM and Euro both have something. GFS, has squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep GFS has no precip across the SE at this time frame but it really hasn't shown anything other then a NWF signature over the past 4 runs. The short range models on the other hand have pretty good potential as well as the Euro. It will be interesting to see which is correct. This close in an outlier is usually safe to call wrong, it'll come around by the 12Z runs tomorrow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 This close in an outlier is usually safe to call wrong, it'll come around by the 12Z runs tomorrow probably. Thanks for the insight SnowGoose! I agree with this assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Big red flag the GFS is likely wrong...NavGEM has a signal and its been its usual progressive self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where does one find the 18z NAVGEM at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where does one find the 18z NAVGEM at the moment? https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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