PhineasC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I like it way more than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 meh, a little better at BWI is "seems", but just missed being as good as the GFS by 25 miles +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I like it way more than 18Z. I'll bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We have several good models to go, but I think the possibility exists that northern sections may struggle to lose 850's. My hunch is that surface temps will fail to warm as quickly as progged. If the peak of that warm advection aloft were occurring during the daylight hours, that'd be one thing, but combine a frozen, snowcovered ground with zero insolation and you have a recipe for a big inversion/weak boundary layer winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I haven't looked yet but it sounds like a disaster...at least according to the 13 different pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 meh, a little better at BWI is "seems", but just missed being as good as the GFS by 25 miles +/- I definitely wouldn't call this run meh. It is worlds better than the crappy 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I haven't looked yet but it sounds like a disaster...at least according to the 13 different pbp You are fine... just east of you naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I haven't looked yet but it sounds like a disaster...at least according to the 13 different pbp 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm having a hard time deciding between the nam or gfs/rgem combo. I think I'll go with the combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DCA would seem to struggle to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow This is where we stand. I'll update again around 1 am. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty at this range. Here are my latest thoughts for DC proper (Still general and likely will need to be fine tuned). 11 am to 7pm - Snow, occasionally mixing with sleet, becomes moderate to heavy in the afternoon. Temps in the mid 20s, gradually rise to around freezing by 7pm 7pm - 9pm - Snow changes over to sleet and then quickly to rain with temperatures climbing to above freezing. 9pm - 5am - Rain, becoming lighter as we head through the night. Temps in the mid 30s. Total snow accumulation: 2-4" I think this is going to be uniform between downtown and the close in suburbs so i do not see 1" for Alexandria and 6" for Rockville but rather a uniform 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cold is always undermodeled. I side with the hide side of forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I like it way more than 18Z. Yeah looks like a minimum of 4" north of Baltimore, with up to 10" in Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DCA would seem to struggle to get an inch. That good? Our luck this would be the time the NAM is dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's not a bad run....trended like gfs I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm having a hard time deciding between the nam or gfs/rgem combo. I think I'll go with the combo. NAM is **** unless it pounds us with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I definitely wouldn't call this run meh. It is worlds better than the crappy 18Z NAM. It's much better for you and a little better for me than 18Z. But I thought it would even be better, which I guess is my fault for extrapolating the model. Anyway, if the other models trend the same way, even a little, we'll all be in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's not a bad run....trended like gfs I thought not even close around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 MD good, DC/N VA east of BR bad Not good where I live in Maryland. Neither was the 21Z SREF guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That good? Our luck this would be the time the NAM is dead on. I don't trust the NAM and the other guidance has been fairly unified against its solution, but twice in a row makes it something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cold is always undermodeled. I side with the hide side of forecasts... At the surface usually. We could very well end up flipping to sleet/zr relatively quickly tomorrow afternoon while 2m temps struggle to warm as we lose the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm having a hard time deciding between the nam or gfs/rgem combo. I think I'll go with the combo. Well you have to wait until the rest of the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM is **** unless it pounds us with snow. It and the sref are both horrid. Makes me worry about our forecast. I think I'll be lucky to get more than an inch. I know the nAM sucks but I'm not sure I trust the GFS and can remember lots of times when the band ends up north of it. Of course that was the old GFS, I still don't know about the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Unless I'm just out to lunch, which is entirely possible, the NAM has been the most north and warmest all day...and it just ticked south. That's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Temps are dropping fairly rapidly across the area. I was forecasted at 9 degrees tonight, down to 6 already. I'm starting to think prolonged periods of snow to freezing rain may be on tap, with less plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't trust the NAM and the other guidance has been fairly unified against its solution, but twice in a row makes it something to consider. it did move toward the GFS, so that's a good sign vs. moving worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 it did move toward the GFS, so that's a good sign vs. moving worse But at the same time it still managed to trend worse for the DCA crew. If it can manage to trend all the way to the GFS, fantastic. But this won't cut it for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM is within range. It should give us pause. Complex storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Unless I'm just out to lunch, which is entirely possible, the NAM has been the most north and warmest all day...and it just ticked south. That's a positive. great minds think alike....and then there's you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 great minds think alike....and then there's you and me A cut above...I see your point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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