Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not the greatest model agreement at this point but I feel like there's enough to get a thread going. Usually it seems like the kiss of death for LAF when I start threads (storms benefitting areas farther north) so hopefully that won't happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 DOH! ok this better not fall apart..... we already know what happens when a LAF poster makes a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Missed my shot again! I did start the Super bowl event thread I will take Hoosier over Joe though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 EURO really the only one that tries to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Welp, sayonara LAF snow chances. Thanks Hoosier. 12z Euro went with a colder rain for here versus the warm 0z run. Wouldn't have it any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Welp, sayonara LAF snow chances. Thanks Hoosier. 12z Euro went with a colder rain for here versus the warm 0z run. Wouldn't have it any other way. euro 132.png Might be wet snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 One of the only storm threads I ever started blasted LAF with almost a foot of snow in the spring of 2012 or 2013 IIRC. Hoping this storm comes to fruition so we have something to track again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 One of the only storm threads I ever started blasted LAF with almost a foot of snow in the spring of 2012 or 2013 IIRC. Hoping this storm comes to fruition so we have something to track again this week. Probably the late March 2013 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Might be wet snow verbatim. Sure. One of the only storm threads I ever started blasted LAF with almost a foot of snow in the spring of 2012 or 2013 IIRC. Hoping this storm comes to fruition so we have something to track again this week. March 24-25, 2013. We thank you for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sure. March 24-25, 2013. We thank you for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sure. I don't have access to amount of products you do, but 850 mb temps are below 0C and the 850 mb low passes south of us. Not like these details really matter though at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 um let's not forget the first few posts in the thread for the current storm. Many of us on the southern flank were ready to declare it another Chicago-Detroit special. Here we are on verification day extending our congrats to Louisville and Nashville. Just say'n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 um let's not forget the first few posts in the thread for the current storm. Many of us on the southern flank were ready to declare it another Chicago-Detroit special. Here we are on verification day extending our congrats to Louisville and Nashville. Just say'n Personally, I'll pass on what Nashville is getting. That's just me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It will be interesting to see if the models lose it again for a period of time before bringing it back in the final 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Personally, I'll pass on what Nashville is getting. That's just me though. you still need to travel 200 miles south to get a snowstorm out of it....that was my point. Even I'm too far north other than a mood coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 you still need to travel 200 miles south to get a snowstorm out of it....that was my point. Even I'm too far north other than a mood coating. Even so, let's just worry about judging this next storm's potential on its own merit instead of fretting over and comparing it to what happened with the current storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Euro has 1/2'+ from DTW-YYZ-YUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Even so, let's just worry about judging this next storm's potential on its own merit instead of fretting over and comparing it to what happened with the current storm. that was kind of my point.... that's what some were doing regarding the other storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Euro has 1/2'+ from DTW-YYZ-YUL. Yup it looks great. Right now, its the only model that has a more phased solution. Thats rare for the Euro as its usually the more progressive one. Some GEFS ensembles have a partial phase. EPS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 There's even more blocking around for this storm, so I'm leaning towards a more suppressed solution being the most likely (unless the uber-progressive northern stream wave can slow its ass down and dig far enough SW for a phase). On the other hand, there's always been a "storm" impacting Detroit around the 22nd of February the past several years, and there's no reason why that trend won't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't have access to amount of products you do, but 850 mb temps are below 0C and the 850 mb low passes south of us. Not like these details really matter though at this point. Agreed. We start out at 33, 850's never go above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It will be interesting to see if the models lose it again for a period of time before bringing it back in the final 60hrs. It seems like that has happened so many times throughout the years even with model upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Big dog on the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yup it looks great. Right now, its the only model that has a more phased solution. Thats rare for the Euro as its usually the more progressive one. Some GEFS ensembles have a partial phase. EPS out yet? Its actually the opposite. The euro is usually the less progressive one, especially when dealing with SW cutoff's but in this case its ejecting the SW energy out more aggressively/faster than the GEM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 eps is south as expected but still a decent spread. probably w. KY to sw.PA...ish control is like Paducah to Buffalo... overall Euro is still the northern model on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 whatever happens with this storm....all the models have one hell of a HP dropping in behind it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Big dog on the JMA Well I wouldn't call a 1015mb low a big dog, lol... But yes, a lot of moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 KBUF seems to favor the Euro solution. AS PACIFIC ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VCNTY OF OKLAHOMA WILL SPAWN A STORM SYSTEM THATCOULD EVENTUALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST. THEDEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL ACCELERATE THEWARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILLPROMOTE SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS.THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TO THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTENDTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE H85 TEMPSCLIMBING TO -4C OR SO WILL SUPPORT NOTICEABLY MILDER SFC CONDITIONS.MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES.IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME VERY INTERESTING ACROSS OUR REGIONSATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTEDTO LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT ACCUMULATINGSNOW DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO AN ICY MIXDURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUSMEDIUM RANGE PACKAGES...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ICEYET...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING.THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EXIT OUR REGION VIANEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR CHARGING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREATLAKES IN ITS WAKE WOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN BACK TO SNOW AS LATEMORNING MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S WOULD TUMBLE BACK THROUGH THE TEENS INTHE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Personally, I'll pass on what Nashville is getting. That's just me though. Wow Nashville cant buy snow. They havent had a 1" snowfall in 4 years, and what looked to be a 3-6" snowstorm ended up all ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm going with whatever the crazy uncle's selling. It has the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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