stormtracker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm going to ask again..I need everyone to keep the banter out of this thread. Already had a convo with storm mode mods and regular mods that they are to be as harsh as possible in moderation. If you want to banter, there's a thread especially for this. Use this thread for strict model and storm related discussion. If you are unsure on what a model shows, don't post it. If you see your posts disappearing, take the hint. If you don't, you'll be 5 posted. Midlo check PMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF Plumes just came out... mean is 10.6" at DCA... all members except 2 have DCA getting 5 inches of snow or more... ARW family going for over a foot with some of its members http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150215&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=&NNC=NMM&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As far as the SREFs, I see very slight changes. Nothing significant really. An expansion of the area of highest mean snowfall, but other than that, noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I checked the individual 21z SRef members on the PSU ewall and several had a whole right over the NOVA DC area while many others were solid qpf numbers. I think there is still uncertainty with the dry air...at least in 25% of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As far as the SREFs, I see very slight changes. Nothing significant really. An expansion of the area of highest mean snowfall, but other than that, noise. Yes, they ticked up only slightly and are adamant on very good precip up to and beyond the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF Plumes just came out... mean is 10.6" at DCA... all members except 2 have DCA getting 5 inches of snow or more The ARW members are crazy. Removing them is a more reasonable 8.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I checked the individual 21z SRef members on the PSU ewall and several had a whole right over the NOVA DC area while many others were solid qpf numbers. I think there is still uncertainty with the dry air...at least in 25% of the members. A bit weenie here but in theory couldn't that be seen as a good thing - if some showed a hole over the DC area and the plumes were still that high - if those ones with low QPF filled in the plumes would probably increase or at least get more confidence at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NEW ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I checked the individual 21z SRef members on the PSU ewall and several had a whole right over the NOVA DC area while many others were solid qpf numbers. I think there is still uncertainty with the dry air...at least in 25% of the members. So there was dry air around DC/NOVA but not Baltimore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 As far as the SREFs, I see very slight changes. Nothing significant really. An expansion of the area of highest mean snowfall, but other than that, noise. Just checked the mean for KAPG and wow. Mean is 9.6", so up about an inch from 15z. Some really juicy members in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I checked the individual 21z SRef members on the PSU ewall and several had a whole right over the NOVA DC area while many others were solid qpf numbers. I think there is still uncertainty with the dry air...at least in 25% of the members. The ARW family is causing the mean to be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z SREF Plumes just came out... mean is 10.6" at DCA... all members except 2 have DCA getting 5 inches of snow or more... ARW family going for over a foot with some of its members http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150215&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=&NNC=NMM&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap I took out the usually overamped ARW members and the mean drops to 8.4" - not bad at all when taking those out. NMP3 going with 1.1" of snow - that member deserves an award if it turns out correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A bit weenie here but in theory couldn't that be seen as a good thing - if some showed a hole over the DC area and the plumes were still that high - if those ones with low QPF filled in the plumes would probably increase or at least get more confidence at that level. Sure. The wet solutions were exceeding 0.75" and some pushing 1". But, I don't like seeing 3-4 totally dry solutions either. Adds some uncertainty to things especially if it's tough to moisten that artic airmass from the top down. Our best bet is moderate steady snow right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The ARW members are crazy. Removing them is a more reasonable 8.4". There are also a couple of really low ones that warrant removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm still not sure how good this is, but the CMC-HRDPS (which I believe is a a high-resolution model nested in the RGEM) is a little more generous to northern Maryland than the RGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know why people in here always talk so much about the SREFs. Not a great model in my opinion. Certain members often tend to bias the output. It's farther North than all other guidance whats new. Now if the RGEM starts showing the best precip that far North then I will believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM amping up reallly nice this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How do the SREF's look for BWI? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150124&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.68667557144257&mLON=-77.62999466881752&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 How do the SREF's look for BWI? Mean is 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know why people in here always talk so much about the SREFs. Not a great model in my opinion. Certain members often tend to bias the output. It's farther North than all other guidance whats new. Now if the RGEM starts showing the best precip that far North then I will believe it. We are in a better range for the SREF and they can add some detail by looking at the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We are in a better range for the SREF and they can add some detail by looking at the individual members. I've never trusted the SREF after Snowquester..... which I know is stupid and stuff but its still too painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Mean is 9". Yoda--bookmarked. Thank you. Warrior. Thank you too. Really looking forward to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know why people in here always talk so much about the SREFs. Not a great model in my opinion. Certain members often tend to bias the output. It's farther North than all other guidance whats new. Now if the RGEM starts showing the best precip that far North then I will believe it. At this range SREF isn't all that bad especially if it matches other guidance. The snow plumes are a little useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 At this range SREF isn't all that bad especially if it matches other guidance. The snow plumes are a little useless. I have never trusted the snow plumes either. It's one tiny piece we look at but I cringe inside when I see them come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've never trusted the SREF after Snowquester..... which I know is stupid and stuff but its still too painful. That was a painful event but at least we are dealing with all snow vs marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ~4pm start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow accumulating by 5PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I have never trusted the snow plumes either. It's one tiny piece we look at but I cringe inside when I see them come up. The liquid plumes are probably useful but everyone loves algorithm snow these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ARW is really not good in this situation. Hires RGEM seems like it has potential though. Did quite well last night showing the jackpot that ended up in MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 NAM north. 500mb looks much better and much more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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