40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Continued..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Out to hr 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When the RGEM and NAM agree, forget it. Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM out to 48 on UQAM site and it looks awesome. It's like 06z but the ULL is stronger so it's ripping that CCB back at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When the RGEM and NAM agree, forget it. Storm cancel Rgem looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM out to 48 on UQAM site and it looks awesome. It's like 06z but the ULL is stronger so it's ripping that CCB back at 48h. Sweet. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yup, Really gets cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM still has a shaft zone though in parts of SNE much like the nam does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem looks good. Didn't at 41H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That looks awesome. Get that thing coming off of ACY like Will says and we go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Precip through 12z Sunday...a lot more to come too for eastenr half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What time do conditions start to go downhill on the Nh seacoast? Want to make sure my Saturday crew gets on their way home before it hits the fan. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM still has a shaft zone though in parts of SNE much like the nam does Hi. Congrats to many though. 2.6/-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM an improvement from the extrapolated 6z on earlier extrapolated runs looked like it tracked too far south with a dual low structure that swung around to largely miss SNE too far east, sort of like GGEM. That was a red flag bothering me last night, and this 12z run is greatly reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM still has a shaft zone though in parts of SNE much like the nam does Yeah - sort of ugly but I think there's a lot of uncertainty here with where some of the heavier banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wedding in Glouster on Saturday night should be fun! I'll keep a sleeping bag in my car in case we can't make it home from the reception.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah - sort of ugly but I think there's a lot of uncertainty here with where some of the heavier banding sets up.You just can't look at a printout picture of qpf and assume things with this. This setup has never happened. Everyone will do fairly well. But there are going to be some really big surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 RGEM an improvement from the extrapolated 6z on earlier extrapolated runs looked like it tracked too far south with a dual low structure that swung around to largely miss SNE too far east, sort of like GGEM. That was a red flag bothering me last night, and this 12z run is greatly reassuring. RGEM is still a bit on the edge of it's range for Sunday morning...so I'd really like to see that show up again through tonight's runs...but the 12z run would imply a hellacious CCB for central/eastern areas. When you loop the hourly collab site (dryslot posted an image), you can see how the whole thing is setting up nicely for what looks to be several hours of heavy snow. But I still want to see this tonight since the RGEM at 48h isn't the highest confidence. Hopefully other 12z guidance continues to show similar solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You need another 6-12 hrs on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll take my chances with that. Highly doubt modeling will pick up on exact location of qpf spinning around the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Precip through 12z Sunday...a lot more to come too for eastenr half What a Casco Bay crusher portrayed by that map! Forecast I heard this morning said 15-20" for there, and they've reached/passed it by 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tip great post lost in previous thread... (copied below) I've posted several times about the concerning multiple surface low reflections bouncing around, signaled on the GGEM and RGEM, that on some runs fujiwara their way to avoid a SNE hit. This is a sound explanation. I wonder if the need for the best baroclinic zone is overestimated when heights are this cold... ie will a low take off much sooner as this hits ocean waters? #2563 Typhoon Tip Posted 14 minutes ago 11,711 posts Joined November 13, 2010 A lot of discussion about the GGEM from last night's run in these last 15 or whatever pages of this colossally impractically long thread ... But the reason for the GGEM's doing this - I suspect - is convective scheming. Whenever there are very cold heights transported seaward, associated with near g-stream amplifiers off the EC ... I have noticed the GGEMs consummate tendency to dumbbell fictitious east ward expansions of sfc reflections ... collocating the east low pressure node almost on top of some huge QPF dump. That's suspect off the bat Hey Ray - why don't you start chapter II for this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You just can't look at a printout picture of qpf and assume things with this. This setup has never happened. Everyone will do fairly well. But there are going to be some really big surprises Yeah he needs your advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dude...GFS heights higher out west at hour 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We talked about that earlier Wxniss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hi. Congrats to many though. 2.6/-12 The RGEM could be 3" with good ratios for you. But probably more like 2" of sugar considering the lift is so far removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dude...GFS heights higher out west at hour 0 It actually looks further SW and a bit stronger with the shortwave at 18 hours than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It actually looks further SW and a bit stronger with the shortwave at 18 hours than the 06z run. It did, but the "approach angle" if you will, in my nonmet terms, was trending sharper and sharper and it seems to have took a step the other way in that regard. Looking at hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You just can't look at a printout picture of qpf and assume things with this. This setup has never happened. Everyone will do fairly well. But there are going to be some really big surprises lol there are certainly reasons why a "screw zone" over CT/W Mass could happen. I wouldn't look at the RGEM/NAM and totally toss. It's completely possible that they're accurate with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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