easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Unfortunately I do see the pattern breaking down in the first week of March (as of right now at least), maybe we can get one last flip between the 7th-20th of March. South of NYC it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Well, I'm thinking that reaching median is a better target than reaching climo...DCA needs like 4" to reach median.Yeah that's probably fairy reasonable. I have liked the break by end mo or early March so we are on borrowed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah that's probably fairy reasonable. I have liked the break by end mo or early March so we are on borrowed time. Me too. It either happens in the next 2 weeks or we may waste the only real climo part of March. Pattern is crazy persistent for now. DC could pull off climo with 2-3 events. Saturday will probably put some snow down but if it's meager then the uphill battle begins in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess the worm turned over and died. We get one storm that basically underperforms and we think we are Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Me too. It either happens in the next 2 weeks or we may waste the only real climo part of March. Pattern is crazy persistent for now. DC could pull off climo with 2-3 events. Saturday will probably put some snow down but if it's meager then the uphill battle begins in earnest. I definitely wouldn't rule it out.. or rule out missing 10. I think gymengineer's thoughts are probably about wisest for DCA at least given where we stand. We have plenty of cautionary tale about punting March given last year but if we do manage to lose out on the first chunk it's quite likely over outside the N&W (if they ever get precip) except for the Mar 25 early cherry blossom duster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Me too. It either happens in the next 2 weeks or we may waste the only real climo part of March. Pattern is crazy persistent for now. DC could pull off climo with 2-3 events. Saturday will probably put some snow down but if it's meager then the uphill battle begins in earnest. Our county was pulling off 2" events left and right this winter (2 inches along an arctic front?!). DCA needs more of a margin to go over an inch on the "messier" events-- they've only had two events go over an inch. Of course Saturday is nowhere near set yet on track, and I think it's good that there are three opportunities from Saturday through next week so that we can hopefully get one more region-wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 what a major flip from yesterday. Went from Deep blues to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 what a major flip from yesterday. Went from Deep blues to this CFSV2 is very good at flip-flopping. Don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 what a major flip from yesterday. Went from Deep blues to this Makes more sense if the PNA reverses and a trough sets up in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Our county was pulling off 2" events left and right this winter (2 inches along an arctic front?!). DCA needs more of a margin to go over an inch on the "messier" events-- they've only had two events go over an inch. Of course Saturday is nowhere near set yet on track, and I think it's good that there are three opportunities from Saturday through next week so that we can hopefully get one more region-wide event. Saturday could be good for a time. Far from resolved. I didn't like seeing the gefs so rainy though. Euro ens last night had a lot of west tracks of a fairly strong low pressure that got us pretty good before dryslot. That solution is as possible as what the euro/gfs showed today. Doesn't look like a good setup right now for a storm to track south of us. Would have to form further south than what the ops are showing and even then the high is likely to be off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 LC tweeted a March map very similar to the "new" CFSv2 March look two days ago. Looks like we have approx. 2 weeks left for a Hail Mary.. what a major flip from yesterday. Went from Deep blues to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 7-10 Euro 500mb average I see a ridge NE of the Caspian and a +PNA intact with energy coming underneath http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest early in this thread I thought we could squeeze 3-5 weeks out of the pattern; we may only get 2-3, but the persistence has been impressive and just when it looks like we could lose the EPO, it remains negative until the last day of a 14 day forecast, not reassuring if you expected a flip sooner ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Saturday could be good for a time. Far from resolved. I didn't like seeing the gefs so rainy though. Euro ens last night had a lot of west tracks of a fairly strong low pressure that got us pretty good before dryslot. That solution is as possible as what the euro/gfs showed today. Doesn't look like a good setup right now for a storm to track south of us. Would have to form further south than what the ops are showing and even then the high is likely to be off the coast. the ensembles look bad right now...interesting that one of the top analogs showing up is 1/17/94..lol...I wonder if this could trend toward an ice storm, assuming the low comes east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 what a major flip from yesterday. Went from Deep blues to this The government intern who maintains this model thanks you and Mitch for keeping him in a job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 The government intern who maintains this model thanks you and Mitch for keeping him in a job and maybe that job is mine for all you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Saturday/Sunday looks like it is slipping away from us, 18z GFS is really warm, above freezing by 10:00pm Saturday, after only like 0.10-0.15 QPF has fallen, and that would not be all snow. Northern Plains HP is like 6mb weaker vs 12z, & the low is slightly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 see HM tweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I know it is a few days off but 18z GFS PBP for DCA so we have some sense of how it might progress hour 99 - borderline snow/sleet - 24 degrees hour 102 - sleet - 27 hour 105 - sleet - 30 hour 108 - rain/zr - 32 all rain after this I'd estimate DC gets 0.20" as snow/sleet crappy run ETA: it came east so there is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 see HM tweet!! could you give me the link? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I know it is a few days off but 18z GFS PBP for DCA so we have some sense of how it might progress hour 99 - borderline snow/sleet - 24 degrees hour 102 - sleet - 27 hour 105 - sleet - 30 hour 108 - rain/zr - 32 all rain after this I'd estimate DC gets 0.20" as snow/sleet crappy run ETA: it came east so there is that welp, then it can only get better in my mind, so we have nothing to lose to fixate on it but sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I like a winter with everything in it....a good sleet bomb would be fun...screw the warmth though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 could you give me the link? thx He just thinks a front thump is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 He just thinks a front thump is doable.As long as we get a thump, i could care less if it is front or rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me if this trends towards a bigger ZR event. Dewpoints are really low to start followed by the inversion. Might be hard to mix that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Since there's no blocking, it's basically an unconstrained flow like the last event. Models will bounce all over the place form 992mb apps runner to 1015mb ZR event depending on how amped up the troff is. Lets hope it trends colder, but I have no preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 could you give me the link? thx @https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 He just thinks a front thump is doable. that wasn't the tweet i was referring to!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 @https://twitter.com/antmasiello thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 that wasn't the tweet i was referring to!! in that case, which one were you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Accuwx has low 60's the first week of March. It's hard getting in the mood for cold once you get the first taste of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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