winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This high latitude block is anomalous for this winter. (depicted by the black arrow). Just enough blocking and confluence to hold the low and the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 you made a thread for an event a week away after the past three non-events??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 you made a thread for an event a week away after the past three non-events??? Look at the 500 mb high latitude blocking, a piece of the puzzle we have been awaiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 1. This is risky. 2. Does this thread only count for folks who buy the dual-evolution centered on 2/10? What about for folks who buy the single evolution centered on 2/9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 meh... I would've waited till it was under 72 hours away to start a thread. Block or no block... unless it's a Feb 2010 type of block, you can't be so sure almost a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Here is the Euro with precisely the same high latitude block (identified with black arrow) albeit 24 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 meh... I would've waited till it was under 72 hours away to start a thread. Block or no block... unless it's a Feb 2010 type of block, you can't be so sure almost a week away. I'm sure the upcoming system is toast without high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Here is the Euro ensemble for the surface low (note the black arrow) on 02/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Lord have mercy Said virtually everyone the last two threats Hopefully this works out. The high latitude 500 mb pattern is different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 hey I love a good snowstorm but this is going to change about a million times before we even get within 3 days of this date let alone 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm in. Though let's change the name of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm in. Though let's change the name of the thread. Sure, whatcha got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's his time to live baby...the winter of winterymix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's his time to live baby...the winter of winterymix Its all about the blocking. Plus, a teacher at the school where my wife teaches requests 3 days off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Great thread name..... unfortunately this is what we have to be excited to track this winter ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This is actually kinda humorous... Kbwi... Look at the surface temps 150208/1500Z 117 06016KT 30.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 150208/1800Z 120 06016KT 27.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150208/2100Z 123 06014KT 24.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 150209/0000Z 126 06014KT 22.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 150209/0300Z 129 06017KT 21.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 150209/0600Z 132 05017KT 20.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 7:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150209/0900Z 135 05018KT 19.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 7:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 150209/1200Z 138 05019KT 18.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 7:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 150209/1500Z 141 05019KT 18.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 8:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0 150209/1800Z 144 04020KT 19.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 8:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150209/2100Z 147 04021KT 20.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 8:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 150210/0000Z 150 04021KT 21.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 8:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 150210/0300Z 153 04024KT 21.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0 150210/0600Z 156 04022KT 18.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 8:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150210/0900Z 159 03023KT 18.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 8:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0 150210/1200Z 162 02019KT 18.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 8:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That would be awesome. Every flake a winner at those temps. Get those smiley face guys with the ax in their heads ready for use soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That would be awesome. Every flake a winner at those temps. Get those smiley face guys with the ax in their heads ready for use soon. I don't really know anything about this stuff.. But if I had to guess.... If it verified exactly as advertised... Temps and all... That the total accumulation would be adversely affected by the duration of the event... But like I said... I really don't know about this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 New thread title Note the black arrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If you look at the 500h from the 18Z GEFS membeers for that time they are all over the place so I'm not sure the mean means much. The placement of the ridging to the west of the developing trough is different but there still are lots of different solutions on the table. I would have held off on starting at thread this early as starting a thread this years has been a killer but maybe you'll be the lucky one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 If you look at the 500h from the 18Z GEFS membeers for that time they are all over the place so I'm not sure the mean means much. The placement of the ridging to the west of the developing trough is different but there still are lots of different solutions on the table. I would have held off on starting at thread this early as starting a thread this years has been a killer but maybe you'll be the lucky one. Just the sort of expert commentary I was hoping for. One of two things will happen, this thread will sink because the event vanishes or we'll get lucky. Let's see what the 0Z EURO brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Just the sort of expert commentary I was hoping for. One of two things will happen, this thread will sink because the event vanishes or we'll get lucky. Let's see what the 0Z EURO brings. Or, the threat will vanish and we'll still have 60 pages like last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Man, this thing's going down with the rest of the fleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Here is the Euro with precisely the same high latitude block (identified with black arrow) albeit 24 hours earlier. eruo.jpg problem is the block is over by Ireland and we have low heights west of Greenland..that look is not great for us..but the vortex over the Maritimes should help. It's actually in a really good spot though it is kind of transient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's only Tuesday. But thread is up so let's roll with it. I'm game for a storm. I want to see stickage on every surface. No rain or sleet at any point during the entire event. 4-8"+ areawide. I also want a winter storm watch issued by Saturday morning. I want it to be a storm where I have to use the 4wd on my jeep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 FYI, I won't be using this thread yet to discuss the models...no reason to...it's only Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 NO. Just No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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