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Long duration snow thingie centered on 12Z 02/10


winterymix

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This is actually kinda humorous... Kbwi... Look at the surface temps

150208/1500Z 117 06016KT 30.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0

150208/1800Z 120 06016KT 27.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150208/2100Z 123 06014KT 24.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0

150209/0000Z 126 06014KT 22.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0

150209/0300Z 129 06017KT 21.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0

150209/0600Z 132 05017KT 20.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 7:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150209/0900Z 135 05018KT 19.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 7:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0

150209/1200Z 138 05019KT 18.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 7:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0

150209/1500Z 141 05019KT 18.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 8:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0

150209/1800Z 144 04020KT 19.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 8:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150209/2100Z 147 04021KT 20.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 8:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0

150210/0000Z 150 04021KT 21.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 8:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0

150210/0300Z 153 04024KT 21.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0

150210/0600Z 156 04022KT 18.9F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 8:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

150210/0900Z 159 03023KT 18.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 8:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 100| 0| 0

150210/1200Z 162 02019KT 18.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 8:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0

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That would be awesome. Every flake a winner at those temps. Get those smiley face guys with the ax in their heads ready for use soon.

I don't really know anything about this stuff.. But if I had to guess.... If it verified exactly as advertised... Temps and all... That the total accumulation would be adversely affected by the duration of the event... But like I said... I really don't know about this stuff.

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If you look at the 500h from the 18Z GEFS membeers for that time they are all over the place so I'm not sure the mean means much.  The placement of the ridging to the west of the developing trough is different but there still are lots of different solutions on the table.  I would have held off on starting at thread this early as starting a thread this years has been a killer but maybe you'll be the lucky one. 

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If you look at the 500h from the 18Z GEFS membeers for that time they are all over the place so I'm not sure the mean means much.  The placement of the ridging to the west of the developing trough is different but there still are lots of different solutions on the table.  I would have held off on starting at thread this early as starting a thread this years has been a killer but maybe you'll be the lucky one. 

Just the sort of expert commentary I was hoping for.   One of two things will happen, this thread will sink because the event vanishes or we'll get lucky.  Let's see what the 0Z EURO brings.

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Here is the Euro with precisely the same high latitude block (identified with black arrow)

albeit 24 hours earlier.

 

attachicon.giferuo.jpg

 

problem is the block is over by Ireland and we have low heights west of Greenland..that look is not great for us..but the vortex over the Maritimes should help.  It's actually in a really good spot though it is kind of transient...

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It's only Tuesday.

But thread is up so let's roll with it. I'm game for a storm. I want to see stickage on every surface. No rain or sleet at any point during the entire event. 4-8"+ areawide. I also want a winter storm watch issued by Saturday morning. I want it to be a storm where I have to use the 4wd on my jeep.

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