IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 For several runs now the ECMWF has been on the storm train for late weekend into early next week. The 00z ECMWF run brought 12"+ of snow to a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Moderate snow moving in on the 12z GFS by 12z Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z GFS is a big hit, moderate snow all day Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Good hit on the GFS. Low exits just below SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Great SWFE with high pressure to the north. Moderate snow with high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Those maps are hillarious and usually the opposite happens. I would've had like 60-80" by now had those maps verified. Also it's about a week out and we saw what happened with yesterday's storm. Looks like it'll be a +AO/+PNA combo which would support a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There is a little trailing vort right behind the storm. I wonder if it has a chance to phase in with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Great SWFE with high pressure to the north. Moderate snow with high ratios. SWFE events drive me nuts. They always seem to trend north as the event gets closer. Not saying that is the case this time, but I would much rather see a beautiful miller A crawling up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Long duration event on the GFS with a SW on the backside . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Those maps are hillarious and usually the opposite happens. I would've had like 60-80" by now had those maps verified. Also it's about a week out and we saw what happened with yesterday's storm. Looks like it'll be a +AO/+PNA combo which would support a moderate event. The storm is 5 days out, multiple models have it. says to me , keep an eye , type of storm being delinenated & details to follow in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Those maps are hillarious and usually the opposite happens. I would've had like 60-80" by now had those maps verified. Also it's about a week out and we saw what happened with yesterday's storm. Looks like it'll be a +AO/+PNA combo which would support a moderate event. It's actually inside 5 days but it's still to early to get specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Long duration event on the GFS with a SW on the backside . Wonder if that will phase in on future models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Wonder if that will phase in on future models. Looks like 2 separate SWs . Those SWs are over the PAC . Be careful buying day 5 solutions . SWFE are dicey this far out . Would love the JP to be DC this far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's actually inside 5 days but it's still to early to get specific.Did the storm move up from Sunday into Monday to Saturday into Sunday? That makes a big difference if it happens for commuters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Euro digs the initial vort a lot more and the trailing energy eventually catches up to it. The GFS on the other hand dug the initial energy much less than 06z and that allowed for a nice SWFE. Then the trailing energy drops south and then off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z Ukie looks nice. It's digging more than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The GGEM is an improvement over 00z but still a bit too far south to impact most of the area. All of the pieces are starting to come together for yet another significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 no model snow maps in discussion threads. post them in banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 no model snow maps in discussion threads. post them in banter Thats the best part of tracking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 no model snow maps in discussion threads. post them in banterwas unaware. Sorry Forky.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There's a quasi 50-50 low in place on the Euro, and a nice high moving into place but watch the placement of those in addition to the sharpness of the trough. Those move less favorable and this can trend way north again like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 why no model snow maps in the thread, please, this is winter in NYC and if the maps are specific to the threat why not. I think those in the know understand they are to be taken with a grain of salt but it's part of the fun of the hobby. jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 why no model snow maps in the thread, please, this is winter in NYC and if the maps are specific to the threat why not. I think those in the know understand they are to be taken with a grain of salt but it's part of the fun of the hobby. jmo. Love the maps.It's part of the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 why no model snow maps in the thread, please, this is winter in NYC and if the maps are specific to the threat why not. I think those in the know understand they are to be taken with a grain of salt but it's part of the fun of the hobby. jmo. A few reasons... 1) Those weenie WxBell maps assume a 10:1 ratio which is not always correct, in fact most of the time it's wrong. 2) The WxBell maps count sleet as snow. 3) In general snowfall amounts are nearly impossible to forecast more than a day in advance, and sometimes even hours in advance as slight changes in temperature profiles and mesoscale features can have large implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only advantage to posting maps this far out is I would think it should greatly reduce the IMBY posts for specific model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Only advantage to posting maps this far out is I would think it should greatly reduce the IMBY posts for specific model runs.They're pretty paintings sometimes, that's about it. They confuse people and many times give people false hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Can we please keep the discussion about snow maps in the banter thread. This thread is meant for model discussion for the late weekend threat only, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 At hr 60 the ridge out West is a bit more amplified than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z Euro for Sun/Mon... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Through 84hrs our vort is a lot more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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