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Feb 5-6 Threat


WxMan1

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Yesterday the globals outside of the EC had a signal that the southern stream wave could lift north enough to make it quite interesting for the mid Atlantic. The EC meanwhile was HP dominant, cold/dry and supressed. Haven't looked at the latest (00Z 1/31) EC/GEM/UK, but I see that even at 06Z the GFS is close, while showing hints of a fairly elongated deformation band.

Perhaps this go around we can lock in the low around 50/50 (our Feb 1-2 system), though at least for now it would appear the UL confluence and SHP are suppressed too far south for our liking during this period. But then again, we know how the trends have been this winter (transient/no blocking). So a northward trend with the southern stream wave would not surprise me one bit over the coming days. (A rainstorm would however, though it shouldn't considering how this winter has gone)

Thoughts?

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I think a thread started by a met is one I'm going all in for.

 

:drunk:

 

Seriously, I like this period, and I think it's our last chance until the second half of the month.  It's been on the models for a while, and has potential if things can just come together - perhaps even at the last minute.

 

My wife just looked over my shoulder, saw me looking at a new storm thread, and said "no chance, forget about it!"

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The 12Z GFS this morning is not too far from being a snow event. All we need is the the northern stream system to our north to be a little weaker and exit faster and the trough that produces the snow to NC would have room to deepen a bit more without getting sheared. Not an impossible feat given that the last two system have amplified enough to track storms to our north but we need changes to our north us to have much hope or need to slow the shortwave over the south a bit.   However,  as Ian says we're probably due for a sheared system and it would be kind of funny to see RDU get snow while we sit cold andd dry to see how Ji would handle it. 

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The 12Z GFS this morning is not too far from being a snow event. All we need is the the northern stream system to our north to be a little weaker and exit faster and the trough that produces the snow to NC would have room to deepen a bit more without getting sheared. Not an impossible feat given that the last two system have amplified enough to track storms to our north but we need changes to our north us to have much hope or need to slow the shortwave over the south a bit.   However,  as Ian says we're probably due for a sheared system and it would be kind of funny to see RDU get snow while we sit cold andd dry to see how Ji would handle it. 

With the way this winter has gone after all the hype about how bad it was to be, I'll pick this option.

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With the way this winter has gone after all the hype about how bad it was to be, I'll pick this option.

Sadly, yes. It would not be a surprise. We probably need to wait until tomorrow evening at earliest to have the evolution of our slop to rain (or drizzle/fog) system get properly sampled. But...the signal is there.

We need all the the good karma we can get right now. 5 year anniversary of Snowmageddon...would be nice to see some snow here.

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You guys.....smh. One day, you're going to get tired of this ****.

Agreed. For me though, when the first week in Feb was in la-la land (240 hrs and beyond), the sense at that time was that our first system here on the 1st-2nd was going to be rain for us, but that our better chance could be with that next southern stream wave around the 5th-6th. The models have since trended south and now back north again with this first system, with the focus still on the next system, which at least for now is our best shot.

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Wes, the last 3 runs of the gfs have been close. Your post sums it up nicely. Models have overdone lower heights and suppression in the medium range quite often the last month. Doesn't mean they're wrong this time of course. 

 

I think we stand a shot at a cold overrunning scenario with the ns vort amplifying enough and grabbing some juice from ss vort and sending it our way from the tn valley. A coastal storm affecting us seems the least likely scenario right now. 

 

I'm pretty sure between now and monday morning we are going to get "the run" that drags everybody back in. The mood will be timid, edgy, paranoid and possibly psychotic. Good times. 

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Posted this in another forum, but what I'm seeing right now;

 

1) Small western ridge helps

2) Arctic front clears SE Canada this Wednesday. It locks in a pretty potent HP in the perfect spot. Kind of creates a pseudo 50/50

3) Potent energy on dropping in from PAC NW...

4) What would help is if we could get a 2nd shrotwave to dive down to kind of hook the initial trough negative. If that can happen I think we got a good setup for a Mid Atlantic Snowstorm

5) At least it is something to look at to get our minds off of this POS event Sunday. 

 

a5PfqX8.gif

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