Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Haven't had one of these in awhile, so let's do one. Guess the total snowfall for this storm (we'll put the dates as Jan 31 thru Feb 2 right now) for the following sites. Winner gets snow. Deadline to enter is 3:00pm Saturday 1/31. Chicago IL (ORD) Cleveland OH (CLE) Columbus OH (CMH) Detroit MI (DTW) Fort Wayne IN (FWA) Grand Rapids MI (GRR) Indianapolis IN (IND) Milwaukee WI (MKE) Moline IL (MLI) Peoria IL (PIA) Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Haven't had one of these in awhile, so let's do one. Guess the total snowfall for this storm (we'll put the dates as Jan 31 thru Feb 2 right now) for the following sites. Winner gets snow. Deadline to enter is 3:00pm Saturday 1/31. Chicago IL (ORD).......9.1" Cleveland OH (CLE)......9.5" Columbus OH (CMH)......4.4" Detroit MI (DTW).......5.7" Fort Wayne IN (FWA)....11.7" Grand Rapids MI (GRR)......3.3" Indianapolis IN (IND)......4.9" Milwaukee WI (MKE)......8.0" Moline IL (MLI)......12.7" Peoria IL (PIA).....10.8" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF....7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 13.2" Cleveland OH (CLE) 12.2" Columbus OH (CMH) 3.2" Detroit MI (DTW) 13.3" Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 12.2" Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 9.7" Indianapolis IN (IND) 1.4" Milwaukee WI (MKE) 8.8" Moline IL (MLI) 10.7" Peoria IL (PIA) 4.6" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD). 12.9" Cleveland OH (CLE). 8.4" Columbus OH (CMH). 2.1" Detroit MI (DTW). 14.4" Fort Wayne IN (FWA). 9.8" Grand Rapids MI (GRR). 12.8" Indianapolis IN (IND). 0.9" Milwaukee WI (MKE). 8.9" Moline IL (MLI). 12.0" Peoria IL (PIA). 10.7" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF. 3.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD). 8.1"Cleveland OH (CLE). 8.2"Columbus OH (CMH). 4.1"Detroit MI (DTW). 4.4"Fort Wayne IN (FWA). 9.0"Grand Rapids MI (GRR). 5.7"Indianapolis IN (IND). 3.2"Milwaukee WI (MKE). 7.5"Moline IL (MLI). 9.6"Peoria IL (PIA). 10.7" LAF= 6.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD): 11.4" Cleveland OH (CLE): 10.8" Columbus OH (CMH): 5.1" Detroit MI (DTW): 9.4" Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 9.0" Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8.5" Indianapolis IN (IND): 1.8" Milwaukee WI (MKE): 11.0" Moline IL (MLI): 9.8" Peoria IL (PIA): 7.8" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF: 6.1" :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 11.2 Cleveland OH (CLE) 9.0 Columbus OH (CMH) 4.6 Detroit MI (DTW) 5.6 Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 9.8 Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 7.8 Indianapolis IN (IND) 4.1 Milwaukee WI (MKE) 7.2 Moline IL (MLI) 10.2 Peoria IL (PIA) 8.5 LAF. 6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD): 13.6" Cleveland OH (CLE): 9.4" Columbus OH (CMH): 2.6" Detroit MI (DTW): 12.5" Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 12.7" Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8.9" Indianapolis IN (IND): 3.3" Milwaukee WI (MKE): 10.8" Moline IL (MLI): 10.6" Peoria IL (PIA): 9.3" Minneapolis: Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF: 8.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I've always found that going broad brush conservative with totals 48 hours out is generally best 75% of the time. Hopefully I'm wrong this time.Chicago IL (ORD) 9.6"Cleveland OH (CLE) 8.2"Columbus OH (CMH) 1.8"Detroit MI (DTW) 9.7"Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 8.4"Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 4.9"Indianapolis IN (IND) 3.2"Milwaukee WI (MKE) 11.3"Moline IL (MLI) 8.7"Peoria IL (PIA) 4.8"Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 5.9" Editing these up a bit, but not going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 11.5" Cleveland OH (CLE) 9.5" Columbus OH (CMH) 1.5" Detroit MI (DTW) 12.5" Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 11.0" Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 4.5" Indianapolis IN (IND) 1.5" Milwaukee WI (MKE) 7.0" Moline IL (MLI) 9.0" Peoria IL (PIA) 8.5" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 11.6" Cleveland OH (CLE) 13.4" Columbus OH (CMH) 8.6" Detroit MI (DTW) 7.8" Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 10.5" Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 13.6" Indianapolis IN (IND) 8.4" Milwaukee WI (MKE) 7.2" Moline IL (MLI) 13.6" Peoria IL (PIA) 14.2" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 11.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD): 11.0 Cleveland OH (CLE): 13.0 Columbus OH (CMH): 6.2 Detroit MI (DTW): 11.9 Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 13.6 Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8.4 Indianapolis IN (IND): 7.4 Milwaukee WI (MKE): 9.0 Moline IL (MLI): 11.6 Peoria IL (PIA): 13.9 Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF: 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD): 11.0 Cleveland OH (CLE): 13.0 Columbus OH (CMH): 6.2 Detroit MI (DTW): 11.9 Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 13.6 Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8.4 Indianapolis IN (IND): 7.4 Milwaukee WI (MKE): 9.0 Moline IL (MLI): 11.6 Peoria IL (PIA): 13.9 Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF: 7.5 cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) - 13.8" Cleveland OH (CLE) 12.4" Columbus OH (CMH) 4.4" Detroit MI (DTW) 10.0" Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 13.5" Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 6.0" Indianapolis IN (IND) 3.3" Milwaukee WI (MKE) 9.7" Moline IL (MLI) 9.0" Peoria IL (PIA) 8.8" Total snowfall for LAF: Lucky 7.7". cruel I'll still take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 13.8"Cleveland OH (CLE) 13.2"Columbus OH (CMH) 2.4"Detroit MI (DTW) 12.9"Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 13.3"Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 8.9"Indianapolis IN (IND) 0.9"Milwaukee WI (MKE) 9.1"Moline IL (MLI) 10.9"Peoria IL (PIA) 8.4"Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 7.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 (ORD) 10.5 (CLE) 7.0 (CMH) 5.5 (DTW) 9.5 (FWA) 8.0 (GRR) 8.2 (IND) 4.5 (MKE) 14.2 (MLI) 10.0 (PIA) 4.5 LAF 6.2 YYZ 20 cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD) 13.2" Cleveland OH (CLE) 12.2" Columbus OH (CMH) 3.2" Detroit MI (DTW) 13.3" Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 12.2" Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 9.7" Indianapolis IN (IND) 1.4" Milwaukee WI (MKE) 8.8" Moline IL (MLI) 10.7" Peoria IL (PIA) 4.6" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 4.3" Nice call a day in advance! You were going with a north shift yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice call a day in advance! You were going with a north shift yesterday. I did adjust a bit since yesterday. I had around 10" for dtw. I think I am done adjusting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Haven't had one of these in awhile, so let's do one. Guess the total snowfall for this storm (we'll put the dates as Jan 31 thru Feb 2 right now) for the following sites. Winner gets snow. Deadline to enter is 3:00pm Saturday 1/31. Chicago IL (ORD).......12.6" Cleveland OH (CLE)......11.5" Columbus OH (CMH)......2.1" Detroit MI (DTW).......12.1" Fort Wayne IN (FWA)....8.8" Grand Rapids MI (GRR)......7.9" Indianapolis IN (IND)......3.0" Milwaukee WI (MKE)......9.4" Moline IL (MLI)......13.0" Peoria IL (PIA).....10.8" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF....5.2" 2nd call and final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 To be fair I revised mine today as well. Going bold with DTW 14.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD). 15.8"Cleveland OH (CLE). 13.5"Columbus OH (CMH). 5"Detroit MI (DTW). 13.5"Fort Wayne IN (FWA). 12"Grand Rapids MI (GRR). 9"Indianapolis IN (IND). 2.5"Milwaukee WI (MKE). 9"Moline IL (MLI). 12"Peoria IL (PIA). 10"Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF. 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD): 16.1" Cleveland OH (CLE): 8.2" Columbus OH (CMH): 3.4" Detroit MI (DTW): 17.3" Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 10.1" Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 13.7" Indianapolis IN (IND): 2.1" Milwaukee WI (MKE): 12.6" Moline IL (MLI): 12.9" Peoria IL (PIA): 5.1" Total snowfall for LAF: 6.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chicago IL (ORD). 15.8" Cleveland OH (CLE). 13.5" Columbus OH (CMH). 5" Detroit MI (DTW). 13.5" Fort Wayne IN (FWA). 12" Grand Rapids MI (GRR). 9" Indianapolis IN (IND). 2.5" Milwaukee WI (MKE). 9" Moline IL (MLI). 12" Peoria IL (PIA). 10" Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF. 5" my southern and northern forecasts not looking good at all based on the latest shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Interested to see who won this, I don't believe anyone had the high numbers for DTW/ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 that's what happens when model runs get progressively better inside 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I bombed the Chicago total. Forgot about the LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Was .6" to high for Detroit. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 I don't have time to do an overall tally, but just did the individual city winners (or closest too). Perfect guesses at CMH, FWA, and IND. BuffaloWeather had the most correct individual closest guesses, but was technically past the entry deadline by 6.5 hours ...alas, I'm easy and we won't penalize him. Congrats go to him. January 31-February 2 actual snowfall totals (winners) Chicago IL (ORD) 19.3" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 16.1") Cleveland OH (CLE) 8.1" (BadgerStateWX, BuffaloWeather, and Trent with guesses of 8.2") Columbus OH (CMH) 1.5" (Chicago WX with a guess of 1.5") Detroit MI (DTW) 16.7" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 17.3") Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 9.8" (Baum and dmc76 with guesses of 9.8") Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 9.1" (Whitelakeroy with a guess of 9.0") Indianapolis IN (IND) 2.2" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 2.2") Milwaukee WI (MKE) 12.0" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 12.6") Moline IL (MLI) 14.4" (KokomoWX with a guess of 13.6") Peoria IL (PIA) 6.4" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 5.1") Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 4.7" (Whitelakeroy with a guess of 5.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I don't have time to do an overall tally, but just did the individual city winners (or closest too). Perfect guesses at CMH, FWA, and IND. BuffaloWeather had the most correct individual closest guesses, but was technically past the entry deadline by 6.5 hours ...alas, I'm easy and we won't penalize him. Congrats go to him. January 31-February 2 actual snowfall totals (winners) Chicago IL (ORD) 19.3" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 16.1") Cleveland OH (CLE) 8.1" (BadgerStateWX, BuffaloWeather, and Trent with guesses of 8.2") Columbus OH (CMH) 1.5" (Chicago WX with a guess of 1.5") Detroit MI (DTW) 16.7" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 17.3") Fort Wayne IN (FWA) 9.8" (Baum and dmc76 with guesses of 9.8") Grand Rapids MI (GRR) 9.1" (Whitelakeroy with a guess of 9.0") Indianapolis IN (IND) 2.2" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 2.2") Milwaukee WI (MKE) 12.0" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 12.6") Moline IL (MLI) 14.4" (KokomoWX with a guess of 13.6") Peoria IL (PIA) 6.4" (BuffaloWeather with a guess of 5.1") Bonus question: total snowfall for LAF 4.7" (Whitelakeroy with a guess of 5.0") Didn't realize I missed the deadline but thanks for going easy on me! Wooo I won!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Had a bit of time so here's a report on your average (absolute) station errors: Forecaster ______ ORD _ CLE _ CMH _DTW _ FWA _ GRR_ IND _ MKE _ MLI _ PIA __ avg abs error _ LAF __ actual amts ___ 19.3 __8.1 __1.5__16.7 __9.8__9.1 __2.2 __12.0 __14.4 __6.4____ avg ____ 4.7 BuffaloWeather ___ 3.2 __0.1 __1.9 __0.6 __0.3 __4.6 __0.1 ___0.6 ___1.5 __1.3 ____1.42" __ 1.4 dmc76 __________ 6.4 __0.3 __0.6 __2.3 __0.0 __3.7 __1.3 ___3.1 ___2.4 __4.3 ____2.44" __ 1.6 Brewers _________ 5.7 __1.3 __1.1 __4.2 __2.9 __0.2 __1.1 ___1.2 ___3.8 __2.9 ____2.44" __ 3.3 snowstormcanuck _ 6.7 __3.4 __0.6 __4.6 __1.0 __1.2 __0.8 ___2.6 ___1.4 __4.4 ____ 2.67" __ 0.5 Whitelakeleroy ____ 3.5 __5.4 __3.5 __3.2 __2.2 __0.1 __0.3 ___3.0 ___2.4 __3.6 ____2.72" __ 0.3 stebo ___________ 6.1 __4.1 __1.7 __3.4 __2.4 __0.6 __0.8 ___3.2 ___3.7 __1.8 ____2.78" __ 0.4Maxim __________ 5.5 __5.1 __0.9 __3.8 __3.5 __0.2 __1.3 ___2.9 ___3.5 __2.0 ____2.87" __ 2.4 Schaumburg Stormer 7.9__2.7 __3.4 __7.3__ 0.8 __1.4 __0.4 ___1.0 ___4.6 __1.4 ____3.09" __ 0.4 Trent ___________ 9.7 __0.1 __0.3 __7.0 __1.4 __4.2 __1.0 ___0.7 ___5.7 __1.6 ____ 3.17" __ 1.2 Chicago Wx ______ 7.8 __1.4 __0.0 __4.2 __1.2 __4.6 __0.7 ___5.0 ___5.4 __ 2.1 ____3.24" __ 2.7 Roger Smith ______ 8.8 __1.1 __4.0 __7.2 __1.8 __0.9 __2.7 ___2.2 ___4.4 __1.9 ____3.50" __ 1.5 IthielZ __________ 5.3 __4.3 __2.9 __6.7 __3.7 __3.1 __ 1.1 ___2.3 ___5.4 __2.4 ____3.72" __ 3.0 Baum ___________ 8.1 __0.9 __3.1 _11.1__0.0 __1.3 __ 1.9 ___4.8 ___4.2 __2.1 ____3.77" __ 1.5BadgerStateWx ___11.2 __0.1 __2.6 _12.3 __0.8 __3.4 __1.0 ___4.5 ___4.8 __4.3 ____ 4.50" __ 1.9mimillman ________8.3 __4.9 __4.7 __4.8 __3.8 __1.3 __5.2 ___3.0 ___2.8 __7.5 ____ 4.63" __ 2.8 KokomoWx ______ 7.7 __5.3 __7.1 __ 8.9 __0.7 __4.5 __6.2 ___4.8 ___0.8 __7.8 ____ 5.38" __ 6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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