rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If it'd of been a little slower or the northern energy faster we'd had a bomb similar to the cmc. I like the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If it'd of been a little slower or the northern energy faster we'd had a bomb similar to the cmc. I like the trends today. The front side of this is warm, so, GFS with the trailing separate piece is a better look, IMO....we've had a helluva time getting a wave to dig that far south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front side of this is warm, so, GFS with the trailing separate piece is a better look, IMO....we've had a helluva time getting a wave to dig that far south though. Very true grit... I sure wouldn't be surprised if that wave started trending north in future runs but right now the trend is south. Let's hope that stays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front side of this is warm, so, GFS with the trailing separate piece is a better look, IMO....we've had a helluva time getting a wave to dig that far south though.It was almost a triple phaser but the Baja low gets vaporized before the trailing SW can catch it.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015013018&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fishel pretty much squashed the monday system and the thursday/friday system on the 5PM news... Said the northern and southern stream phase and that spells rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 still snowing in nc and northern sc thru 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fishel pretty much squashed the monday system and the thursday/friday system on the 5PM news... Said the northern and southern stream phase and that spells rain. The Monday system I can see, that is toast for us but surprised to hear about the Thursday/Friday system. Still a long way to go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Monday system I can see, that is toast for us but surprised to hear about the Thursday/Friday system. Still a long way to go with that one. Hell, the Monday system is basically toast for the Mid-Atlantic at this point. I see no reason to throw away the Thursday/Friday system yet, though I would definitely lean towards rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If models would have done what they have said 6 days out we would have 40 inches of snow by now. No block they continue to do what they have done all winter. Get a block and almost a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The trend will be for no Deep South phasing. The western ridge needs to be tall and sharp so the northern stream can dig. That hasn't happened all year. Would love to see this one buck the trend. But it's hard to believe the ridge won't get beaten down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sorry for the newbie question, but can you explain why we need a sharp ridge? I understand the tall part. Is it to help it dig as you mentioned, and not just slide over and never move south/southeast? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sorry for the newbie question, but can you explain why we need a sharp ridge? I understand the tall part. Is it to help it dig as you mentioned, and not just slide over and never move south/southeast? Thanks!!It helps with possible northern/southern stream interaction as far as energy goes. It helps storms phase over the south central US and bomb just off the east coast. Also helps facilitate cold, taller the ridge the deeper the cold in the SE as well. With a somewhat relaxed ridge we would get more of a progressive flow. This is just off the top of my head so maybe someone can add images to explain it better but for the SE we love +PNAs in just the right place with a split flow/southern steam undercutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It helps with possible northern/southern stream interaction as far as energy goes. It helps storms phase over the south central US and bomb just off the east coast. Also helps facilitate cold, taller the ridge the deeper the cold in the SE as well. With a somewhat relaxed ridge we would get more of a progressive flow. This is just off the top of my head so maybe someone can add images to explain it better but for the SE we love +PNAs in just the right place with a split flow/southern steam undercutting. A Jon sighting! You know it's on like Donkey Kong now! Yeah that's right. You can have a tall ridge, but it can be tilted funny and mess everything up. You can also have a sort of tall rounded ridge. No good, usually. A lot of times when the ridge is very tall, it is sharp too, and that allows the northern stream wave to dive south. Get the placement right and you're in bidness! A fast Pac flow can (and has done so most of the year) beat down the ridge. A flatter, shorter ridge keeps the northern stream farther north. Less chance of phasing and less cold air delivery into the SE. Of course, a tall, sharp ridge isn't the be all end all. Blocking helps. Undercutting southern stream helps. Cold air on our side of the globe helps. It takes so many things going right to get a snowstorm, it's amazing we ever see one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Widre Screw Zone in full force: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fishel pretty much squashed the monday system and the thursday/friday system on the 5PM news... Said the northern and southern stream phase and that spells rain. Yeah, because the models have been great at getting things right a week out this winter, and they have not been trending better today at all for snow. He is making a safe bet based on what we have had so far this winter, but that is not to say that is what will happen this time. He is just being conservative and playing the odds right now because the winter has been awful so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, because the models have been great at getting things right a week out this winter, and they have not been trending better today at all for snow. He is making a safe bet based on what we have had so far this winter, but that is not to say that is what will happen this time. He is just being conservative and playing the odds right now because the winter has been awful so far. lol I doubt that conservatism is the driving force behind his forecast. It looks pretty good to me based on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I still am all in on the back end snow at noon on Monday, on the 18z!! That's going to be the one! We won't have to worry about down sloping or temps or moisture outrunning the cold, I'm all in and I will take pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I still am all in on the back end snow at noon on Monday, on the 18z!! That's going to be the one! We won't have to worry about down sloping or temps or moisture outrunning the cold, I'm all in and I will take pics! 00z hires nam says nobody is getting squat on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well... for giggles and to suck me into this one: 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z hires nam says nobody is getting squat on the backend. Getting backend snow is as rare as getting more than 2 inches off a clipper. In the last 4 years I think we got back end snow a handful of times, maybe twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BTW GFS is a good bit slower with that southern energy @75...looks closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 While our southern wave is slower that energy out west is also slower on this run. Cold does look to get ahead of the system possibly which is a plus. Out to 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BTW GFS is a good bit slower with that southern energy @75...looks closer to the Euro. yep still hanging back a bit at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is gonna be close to CMC I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Might be a late phase on the gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's too warm @132...first piece doesn't look like it will phase with that energy coming in from the back. The good thing is that back end energy is digging better and stronger so it might pop something once the cold air does filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is gonna be close to CMC I think. I agree burger...The trend through the day has been for the southern energy to be slower. Good to see the northern energy still digging to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man GFS is so close to something bigger @147 possibly light snow from CLT west in NC. It's hard to tell though as 850's look sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Snow from ATL to CLT @150. I would guess something like 1-3 for ATL probably 2-4 the closer you get to CLT. AVL probably 3-5....these are just rough guesses though as sfc temps aren't amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Light snow for several in the SE at 153...This run was very close to something big. Overall good trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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