buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 As we start another thread to countdown the final 1/3 of winter, here's a friendly reminder to leave the one liners/whining/arguing in the banter thread where it belongs. Could the 4th-6th produce the ever elusive frozen precip for some in the south 06zgfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There are still some significant differences between the GFS and NAM. 12 NAM at hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 6z GFS at hour 90: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Not saying how the NAM would proceed but just stating there are differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It appears that the rich are going to keep getting richer and the SE will stay in the poorhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Here's 850 temps and winds: NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There's a few hits in there, for people that still believe it may snow this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Here's 850 temps and winds: NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model This looks for central NC and points north if we can get some precipitation in here to coincide with the temps, yes? Blacksburg Technical Discussion this morning hints at this potential. I think IF we get snow in the SE before March, it will be a surprise event -- on that is unfolding as it occurs or without more than 1 - 2 days notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just from my perspective, it looks like the 12 GFS has changes closer towards the NAM (at hour 72). Still not sure how this would affect things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12 at 72 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 6z at 78 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_078_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just from my perspective, it looks like the 12 GFS has changes closer towards the NAM (at hour 72). Still not sure how this would affect things. Looks like the 2/2 system is not as strong, hints the lower returns and cooler temps. This is at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That was a drastic change on the gfs. It really trended much weaker and south with the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That was a drastic change on the gfs. It really trended much weaker and south with the Sunday storm. It was more of a cold front, hardly any interaction with the Baja low. About the best thing for us as we don't get drenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At hour 108: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It looks to me that the GFS is attempting to build a -NAO by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just going off 850 temps would look like snow to ice for northern NC (at least). ...don't have any more info... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just going off 850 temps would look like snow to ice for northern NC (at least). ...don't have any more info... The first storm? Looked like cold rain to me but I just glanced at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is too warm for 2/4. Got an Apps runner...but there is energy on it's heels and cold air is pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 2/4-2/5 system is juicy but just can't get the cold air in. The track is slightly inland but could be interesting w/ some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is too warm for 2/4. Got an Apps runner...but there is energy on it's heels and cold air is pressing down. I don't have surface temps / dew points but 850s are right along the NC/VA boarder. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=111&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 *but don't see much of a CAD signature.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is too warm for 2/4. Got an Apps runner...but there is energy on it's heels and cold air is pressing down. With no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 2/4-2/5 system is juicy but just can't get the cold air in. The track is slightly inland but could be interesting w/ some cold air. The 0z Euro was just cold enough from 85 west to get a snow that changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS close to something really big next Friday...of course the big one is always 7-10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z is a big hit of snow as far south as SAV out at 228! Even has snow in the panhandle of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This run of the GFS isnt good for anyone. Even RIC and ROA are probably all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Coastal areas of SC/NC get crushed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS close to something really big next Friday...of course the big one is always 7-10 days away! Oh yeah...1044 high just west of the lakes and moisture out of the gulf. This 10 day'er is going to happen...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Man I thought we were closer to something with the first event. But surface temps just not there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This run of the GFS isnt good for anyone. Even RIC and ROA are probably all rain. Actually looks like ROA gradually changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Congrats ATL on this run....I'll cash out with this storm even if ATL and MYB get more than my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This run of the GFS isnt good for anyone. Even RIC and ROA are probably all rain. Well, the run is basically entirely different than the 0z with every storm so if you don't like this one just wait 6 hours and you'll get something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Congrats ATL on this run....I'll cash out with this storm even if ATL and MYB get more than my back yard. I think that's the first fantasy snow that atl does good in. Can we sign up? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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