Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

There won't be a long virga period, the only notably dry layer is 925 to the surface, and its not necessarily bone dry either, I think it may reach the ground rather quickly tomorrow.

Thank you snowgoose

[buckeyefan1]

Can a red tagger tell me why my question about snow drifts keep being deleted as it has to pertain to this storm ?????

MBY questions are frowned upon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Listen up folks...........If you find your posts being deleted, post them in banter where it belongs.....now back to your regular scheduled program   

[PB GFI]

The 2.5 shown area wide by the 12z European has enough support not to be considered a vast outlier. The 18 z NAM has 2 plus inches at KNYC as well up and down the I95 corridor . It is drier on the western side and that gradient may be too steep IMO , as i think there is enough lift to carry heavy snow all the back into the Poconos . One note it has gotten wetter at KNYC for 4 straight runs.

The 9Z SREF which was 1.5 in NWNJ 1.75 at KNYC and 2 on eastern Long Island Although vastly drier accross the Hudson , from KNYC east the SREF s are about 70 percent of the Euro at the park and 80 percent on L I

The UKIE which also has gotten wetter over its last 3 runs is 1.6 at KNYC it matches up with the RGEM s 1.6 which actually doubled its QPF in 12 hours at KNYC

The models are racing towards the Euro solution and not away from it.

Now the GFS , my apologizes but its eastern and drier solution is outside the rest of the envelope here.

Even if the Euro is too amped and it possible , there is enough agreement that 70 percent of what it is implying at 12 to 1 is still

a plus 20 inch snowstorm with 50 mph gusts , and that gets you very close to a top 5 storm at KNYC

[Jb1979]

Looks like precip is already hitting the surface pretty far east too. York, PA reporting light rain at this hour.

I have some very light drizzle just outside of Philly. No virga. Things seem plenty moist

[swamplover56]

The 2.5 shown area wide by the 12z European has enough support not to be considered a vast outlier. The 18 z NAM has 2 plus inches at KNYC as well up and down the I95 corridor . It is drier on the western side and that gradient may be too steep IMO , as i think there is enough lift to carry heavy snow all the back into the Poconos . One note it has gotten wetter at KNYC for 4 straight runs.

The 9Z SREF which was 1.5 in NWNJ 1.75 at KNYC and 2 on eastern Long Island Although vastly drier accross the Hudson , from KNYC east the SREF s are about 70 percent of the Euro at the park and 80 percent on L I

The UKIE which also has gotten wetter over its last 3 runs is 1.6 at KNYC it matches up with the RGEM s 1.6 which actually doubled its QPF in 12 hours at KNYC

The models are racing towards the Euro solution and not away from it.

Now the GFS , my apologizes but its eastern and drier solution is outside the rest of the envelope here.

Even if the Euro is too amped and it possible , there is enough agreement that 70 percent of what it is implying at 12 to 1 is still

a plus 20 inch snowstorm with 50 mph gusts , and that gets you very close to a top 5 storm at KNYC

Pb this is an excellent post really you only have the gfs far from a euro solution. Tonight's oz should be telling

[PB GFI]

Don't get so hung up on accumulations. You will not be able to tell the difference between 22 and 28 after its been blown around for 12 hours by 50 mph gusts.

SREFs in 30 mins. Good luck all.

[superjames1992]

There won't be a long virga period, the only notably dry layer is 925 to the surface, and its not necessarily bone dry either, I think it may reach the ground rather quickly tomorrow.

 

I know I'm not in this region, but I did want to ask a meteorologist this as someone asked a question pertaining to this on the previous page.  Don't the models take into effect virga when spitting out QPF?  In that case, there's really no need to "subtract" from the QPF the models are showing unless you think the air mass is drier than the model is showing?  Thanks.

[pazzo83]

Returns showing up 20-30mi SSW of the city now.  Here we go.

[billgwx]

I know I'm not in this region, but I did want to ask a meteorologist this as someone asked a question pertaining to this on the previous page.  Don't the models take into effect virga when spitting out QPF?  In that case, there's really no need to "subtract" from the QPF the models are showing unless you think the air mass is drier than the model is showing?  Thanks.

 

Yes. The NAM sometimes overdoes this and takes away QPF via excessive virga (i.e., evaporative cooling aloft)...one reason (along with being slow with warm advection) why I like to start wintry precip at least 2-3 hours ahead of its forecast.

[Superstorm93]

Returns showing up 20-30mi SSW of the city now.  Here we go.

 

Hybrid scan reflectivity from the new MRMS build looks to be doing really well so far. 

 

[billgwx]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

[mikemost]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Thanks for that insight, Bill. Always valued around here! Amazing continuity on the Euro. Good luck on the forecast.

[IsentropicLift]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Thanks so much for taking the time to post here.

[Morris]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Thanks for chiming in.

[billgwx]

Thanks so much for taking the time to post here.

 

No problem. One more item I should mention was that I kept snow ratios down because of wind...between 10-12:1.Strong winds tend to fracture dendrites unless they glom into huge aggregates a la Feb 2013...but that storm had the help of marginal boundary layer temps to keep them glommed IIRC.

[Kaner587]

Sref has held serve and probably slightly improved for some areas

[Superstorm93]

Six standard deviations. That's just insane. 

 

[uncle W]

snow on our door step already...It could be virga?...

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USNY0996

[IsentropicLift]

SREF looks about the same

[WintersGrasp]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Thank you for the detailed explanation. It is greatly appreciated and I hope this incredible opportunity pans out !

[pazzo83]

SREF looks about the same

 

Were they more aligned with the Euro?

[Mitchel Volk]

Rain in Philly already looks like things are going to start quicker so a little more snow. This storm is about as impressive as anything I ever see progged by the models. I totally agree with bill, I think this will be a top five storm for the NYC area, even the GFS is slightly pushing it back west.

[rossi]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Post like this are needed much more often, thank u

[NJHurricane]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Thanks for the input....your comment about the 850 winds....is this feature something that gives you confidence in these totals above and beyond the exact low pressure center track?

[SleetStormNJ]

Anyone concerned about temperatures. We are at 36 right now and suppose to go down to 24, with cloud cover not sure how cold it will get my morning when the snow starts.

 

Down to 31 here.

[lisnowman26]

Home weather station is reading 29.4. I live in middle island Suffolk county Long Island

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[Allsnow]

New srefs look amazing

1.00 qpf back to Phl

1.75-2.00 nyc

[Superstorm93]

Not sure why people are concerned with temps. You have a fresh source region of beautiful Arctic air. Once the storm starts to intensify, all that will come south. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now.

Great work, Bill, and to all at NWS. Very informative discussion.