DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here is our new thread. The other was at 45 pages and needs some decluttering. Here's to the rest of the 0z suite and an insane Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thanks for the new thread. Waiting to see GGEM, UKMET, and Euro. Good start with the GFS, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Like bob in the other thread, I don't think people DC and north will lose too much to bad temperature profiles. The gfs, which we have been claiming has a warm bias as of late, is still snowing on us and cools the BL off quickly in a classic way in events like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why in the middle of the model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why in the middle of the model run? hmm? The GFS run for this storm has passed already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is there really a concern over temps? We saw rain depicted on some of the models earlier but the soundings said otherwise. Given the setup it'd seem that we wouldn't lose much qpf, but if we torch tomorrow I suppose that's an area of concern. Do you remember where you live? It's safe to say temps are always something to be concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is there really a concern over temps? We saw rain depicted on some of the models earlier but the soundings said otherwise. Given the setup it'd seem that we wouldn't lose much qpf, but if we torch tomorrow I suppose that's an area of concern. Probably overplayed esp if the event is good.. tho it will be warm tomorrow so that doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Canadian is super warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Canadian is a strung out warm mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If the vort pass is as depicted by the GFS, I'd think we quickly drop and change to snow. We'd lose some at the start for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM tracks the first low from central ky into northern wv before giving way to the coastal. It never passes below us so return flow brings up the warmth. Dryslot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM were in the low 40s Monday afternoon...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Canadian is a strung out warm mess days and days of white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM is a no go for everyone up the coast Oh? I'm not looking at it offhand, does it go wide right for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Fwiw, I'm not as concerned about the earth at onset cutting in. Maybe on the roads but that's about it. The column is easily suffering down to 900-925 at onset and with caa aloft and the onset of precipitation, I would expect the changeover to come quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Oh? I'm not looking at it offhand, does it go wide right for everyone? No, it clobbers SNE... I posted too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Oh? I'm not looking at it offhand, does it go wide right for everyone? Nah yoda just wasn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM were in the low 40s Monday afternoon...lol Well, that's a big WTF! It would be somewhat laughable if we weren't in an already tenuous situation (in terms of storm evolution, not necessarily temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is one of those times we need WinterWxLuvr to remind us we just want to see as much precip shown as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Oh? I'm not looking at it offhand, does it go wide right for everyone? It gives Boston like 3" QPF, but it is warm....it is warm for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is one of those times we need WinterWxLuvr to remind us we just want to see as much precip shown as possible. In all seriousness, I can tell you're not too worried about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No, it clobbers SNE... I posted too quickly Ah, OK. Figured it was against the law not to hit SNE, which is why I asked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Remember, you just want to see as much precip shown as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 not that the Canadian suite is right, but the fact is the temps on the GFS are no where near as cold as they were as recently as last night, soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM tracks the first low from central ky into northern wv before giving way to the coastal. It never passes below us so return flow brings up the warmth. Dryslot as well. Sounds kinda like a Miller B screw job. We need that initial push to be strong. So we can bank all of the precip up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The most important thing is to get as much precip as possible. Roll the dice with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GGEM doesn't believe in CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The most important thing is to get as much precip as possible. Roll the dice with temps. We tried that last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 In all seriousness, I can tell you're not too worried about temps. It's currently 97th on a list of 117 things I'm worried about with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I want to thank everyone for all the analysis in the thread. I have been relying ald learning from all of you for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.