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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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What do they throw back inland?

 

 

Nothing.

 

I mean I can't see mean ensemble qpf under 0.05 so if it has stuff inland, its only a few hundreths. I would count on nothing inland except maybe some weenie mood snow for a brief time.

 

Be pleasantly surprised if it trends back better...but I think our goose is cooked inland...the Cape and SE areas still may squeak something modest out of it.

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I'm holding out pessimism (or optimism depending on one's point of view in matters..) regarding the latter amplitude early next week. 

 

The ridge axis is parked 120W, and having that disturbance go E means that the long wave, wave length is anomalously long from the ridge arc to the trough base.  

 

A correction west is acceptable, if not anticipated.   Much will depend upon how much strength actually gets relayed off the assimilations out over the eastern Pacific.  The governing dynamics are still passing through the shadows of the lower GOA, and the ridge then arcs N post passage through the Rockies.  If 10 kts of missing dynamics gets sampled as the latter takes place, this thing digs more and the long/wave trough will end up west of the currently depicted mean position right over the EC.  

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I'm holding out pessimism (or optimism depending on one's point of view in matters..) regarding the latter amplitude early next week. 

 

The ridge axis is parked 120W, and having that disturbance go E means that the long wave, wave length is anomalously long from the ridge arc to the trough base.  

 

A correction west is acceptable, if not anticipated.   Much will depend upon how much strength actually gets relayed off the assimilations out over the eastern Pacific.  The governing dynamics are still passing through the shadows of the lower GOA, and the ridge then arcs N post passage through the Rockies.  If 10 kts of missing dynamics gets sampled as the latter takes place, this thing digs more and the long/wave trough will end up west of the currently depicted mean position right over the EC.  

18z gfs is closer, sharper, slower.

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