atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What models ? The NAVGEM and GGEM are hits . These definitive statements 5 to 6 days out should be left out . There are so many SW in the pattern the models will need to get closer as to which one to key on . GGEM is a miss unless you are counting a graze as a hit...and NOGAPS...well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GGEM is a miss unless you are counting a graze as a hit...and NOGAPS...well... GGEM is a really close miss for NYC but not SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GGEM is a miss unless you are counting a graze as a hit...and NOGAPS...well... It is not the whiff it was at 12z and grazes SNJ now . So it too has come N . So yes 200 miles N in 12 hours and Snow 75 miles S of NYC is a better solution than the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 About a dozen 12z EPS members had sub 990mb lows inside the benchmark today. That should be enough to get anyone here excited. And you have the NAVGEM showing consistency, the 12z ECWMF OP which made a huge NW shift today and the 00z GGEM which is NW of all prior runs. The GFS is not far off either. If you don't know how to properly read a model or don't have anything of value to add then please abstain from posting, thanks. I am more concerned about the lack of dominant high in place to lock cold air, rather than a miss. That's how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is a storm behind this one . It has a great look to it , and would be in the middle of next week . Its a full latitude trough and would be a really cold storm . 8 days away but file that one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am more concerned about the lack of dominant high in place to lock cold air, rather than a miss. That's how I see it. And that should be the least of your concerns at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am more concerned about the lack of dominant high in place to lock cold air, rather than a miss. That's how I see it.I would be more concerned about out to sea and strong out, imho. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Here it is....the run you waited all year for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ECMWF right up the coast, H5 trough neg tilts at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sub 992 near VA Capes, snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Here it is....the run you waited all year for Yup! Toss em! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well euro has come more west. Great to see.. We just. Need one good storm to make this forum a better place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Closed off, 970's south of benchmark. Mega hit for immediate coast. Moderate snow about 50 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 BOOOOOOOOOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's still really early but temps look marginal if it does track like that. Seems like the theme this year, its OTS or too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's still really early but temps look marginal if it does track like that. Seems like the theme this year, its OTS or too warm. oh god please... Don't talk about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 30 miles NW and it would have been Mother of God worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 BOOOOOOOOOOMwhats the accumulations look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's still really early but temps look marginal if it does track like that. Seems like the theme this year, its OTS or too warm.Give me a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 975 JUST SE OF THE BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 30 miles NW and it would have been Mother of God worthyWe making baby steps.. Hopefully it pans out in our favor we need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 whats the accumulations look like?The city is 0.50" plus liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 975 JUST SE OF THE BMNow THAT is sexy (and IM not joking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hey im just sayin I don't see a strong high in place for this one, im not tryin to poopoo on any parade, I want this to work out just as much as any one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The city is 0.50" plus liquid.another 50 miles north id say we can talk in feet. A strong storm like that will have no problems with temperatures being warm for snow. Blizzard is in the works?Edit: I'll go to sleep with a smile... Just hope Ukmet goes on board tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Very nice looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don't worry about precip amounts or temps this far . 19MB drop in 12 hours is a great looking set up . It was a nice step , didn't cover everyone yet but it looks to be going in that direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hey im just sayin I don't see a strong high in place for this one, im not tryin to poopoo on any parade, I want this to work out just as much as any one here.975 se of benchmark.. High pressure or not, that's snow my friend. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 DAY 8 BOOM BACK TO BACK AND A BELLY TO BELLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 975 se of benchmark.. High pressure or not, that's snow my friend. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Totally agree, I guess the winter has jaded me a bit so far. CMC trended NW, Euro trended NW, Navgem is a hit, id say its been a goodnight, goodnight everyone. Interest to see the Ensembles and low locations of the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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