DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Wxrisk.com ...look under the tab. THE DTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/15/two-week-outlook-seasonal-then-a-temperature-plunge-and-increased-odds-of-snow/ But I dont agree ... Dave, Wes did mention "some uncertainty" when he wrote his piece a few days ago. He also noted that the idea was contingent on the guidance being correct (AO-/PNA+ pattern), concluding, "If the mean patterns being forecast in the longer ranges by the European and NCEP ensemble are in the ball, always a big if, our snow chances should rise before the end of the month." In any case, it will be interesting to see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/15/two-week-outlook-seasonal-then-a-temperature-plunge-and-increased-odds-of-snow/ But I dont agree ... That's a bit better than yesterday's graph. Why are you not bullish though? Because the AO is going negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 DT went all in on the winter sucking, so he can't back down now. To be fair, I don't think we'll have much to show for the upcoming pattern because the Atlantic will continue to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dave, Wes did mention "some uncertainty" when he wrote his piece a few days ago. He also noted that the idea was contingent on the guidance being correct (AO-/PNA+ pattern), concluding, "If the mean patterns being forecast in the longer ranges by the European and NCEP ensemble are in the ball, always a big if, our snow chances should rise before the end of the month." In any case, it will be interesting to see how things evolve. so far the lowest ao reading was -1.280 on 12/28/14...The highest AO minimums for the winter since 1950... -0.318 3/4/1989... -1.280 12/28/2014 -1.695 12/14/1974 -2.044 12/17/1972 -2.118 2/18/2000 -2.184 2/4/2007 -2.228 3/2/1993 -2.314 2/28/1998 -2.468 1/2/2008 -2.597 12/4/1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 so far the lowest ao reading was -1.280 on 12/28/14...The highest AO minimums for the winter since 1950... -0.318 3/4/1989... -1.280 12/28/2014 -1.695 12/14/1974 -2.044 12/17/1972 -2.118 2/18/2000 -2.184 2/4/2007 -2.228 3/2/1993 -2.314 2/28/1998 -2.468 1/2/2008 -2.597 12/4/1991 The AO+ has been very impressive so far this winter. At this point in time, it will take a -2.046 average from today through 2/28 for a December-February average of -0.500. For a DJF average of -1.000, the AO will have to average -3.118 the rest of meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/15/two-week-outlook-seasonal-then-a-temperature-plunge-and-increased-odds-of-snow/ But I dont agree ... I was basing the forecast on the euro ens mean which showed a negative AO but even if the Ao only goes negatvie for a couple of days, our winter chances aren't dead if the Pacific cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm not sure why you deicded to drag my name into the thread. Why not just put down your own thoughts before bashing mine. You very well could be right about us not getting snow. Any two week outlook is pretty much an educated guess. If the PNA goes negative and the AO goes positive then my guess will be totally wrong, if the PNA is positive and the AO goes positive I'd still take my chances. If the ridge ends off the coast, then and we have a positive PNA, my forecast is dead unless the Eruo clipper verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 ^lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Using the strong -QBO alone for support for strong +AO or +NAO is questionable. For December 2005, the QBO at 30mb was -25.05. Yet that same month the AO averaged -2.104 and NAO -0.44. More likely other factors such as weaker easterly QBO winds at 50mb, geomagnetic activity and lack of MJO/+ENSO forcing contributed to +AO or +NAO this winter. We've seen decrease of geomagnetic activity and more tropical forcing that last few weeks. So there is reason to think AO/NAO state will at least oscillate going forward. This will at least open door a little more for more moderate or significant threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yay 1-3" of snow today for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish And I think there's a lot of people here who would rather you didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 wes I didn't mean to drag your name into it in a negative sense. I simply trying to generate some controversy and some debate. This is not intended as a form of disrespect at all. people come on my facebook page all the time and debate forecast issues and ideas with me all the time. again it is not my intention to piss you off at all... i will delete the thread if you so wish Dave, I'm not into generating controversy, I just want to try to convey thoughts about the weather. Leave but I would appreciate that next time you disagree that you just post inside of the "offending thread" or in the CWg comment thread rather than starting one with my name on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wes I Edited the thread title... hope that helps Again my apologies if I pissed you off or you viewed this as a form of disrespect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It was disrespect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 no it wasnt ... from my perspective ..on my facebook page many mets post differing views.. Mike Masco (WBAL) Chris Martucci (epwxa)Al marinaro ( midwest wx) Robert Gamble ( wx south) just to name a a few. Still I should of posted this thread differently It was disrespect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm sitting in pine grove pa right now inside your 2-4". When is that coming by the way???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 And just to be clear I mean no disrespect by pointing out how ridiculously wrong your forecast is just trying to start some controversy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm sitting in pine grove pa right now inside your 2-4". When is that coming by the way???? ? I thought you moved back to Manchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 And just to be clear I mean no disrespect by pointing out how ridiculously wrong your forecast is just trying to start some controversy DT's arrogance has surely got the best of him and it really detracts from his abilities. and a tip...keep the caps lock off...it's not controversial....its condescending. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Nothing in the pattern screams KU storm, but there's plenty of cold and below normal heights in the east, far from hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ? I thought you moved back to Manchester I did. Was visiting family today. Just got back to Manchester actually. The drive was treacherous with all that snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 yawn everyone busts on forecasts... And just to be clear I mean no disrespect by pointing out how ridiculously wrong your forecast is just trying to start some controversy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 yawn everyone busts on forecasts...I was mostly just poking fun, you did open the door to criticism by poking at others. I have noticed that recently you seem to often be a little too liberal along the southern snow boundary of storms, especially when it's from northern Maryland through pa. Not a big deal as you are trying to forecast for a huge area. Most forecasters only have to worry about a more specific location or smaller region. Still I have noticed the trend to overdo snow on the south side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 yawn everyone busts on forecasts... But not everyone starts a thread calling out the forecaster in the title... before the forecast was even valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 DT's arrogance has surely got the best of him and it really detracts from his abilities. and a tip...keep the caps lock off...it's not controversial....its condescending. Nut what? arrogance, arguing, controversial, what site are we one here Nut trails.com? (inside joke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 what? arrogance, arguing, controversial, what site are we one here Nut trails.com? (inside joke) LMAO....well done! I really like what DT throws it out there.....but don't like how....just should'nt come off as absolutes....not in this "sport" anyway. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It was disrespectAgreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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