Powerball Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Proceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Reading half of the post in the Lakes/OV forum is be described by Gimli: "You'll find more cheer in a graveyard." Ironically I have been mostly enjoying this winter. I'll admit it has been boring on the phasing storm side of the weather but outside of Christmas/New Years I have been able to do several of my winter activities and there is still plenty of winter to go. Glad I didn't buy into all the October hype for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm a little disappointed that http://www.twisterdata.com doesn't plot the full 13km information from the new GFS. It looks like it has 25km grid scale information plotted. I'm not sure exactly how they are -not- plotting the 13-km information. Maybe they have a problem with computing power. I love the color schemes on there, and the click-to-forecast-sounding feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Reading half of the post in the Lakes/OV forum is be described by Gimli: "You'll find more cheer in a graveyard." Ironically I have been mostly enjoying this winter. I'll admit it has been boring on the phasing storm side of the weather but outside of Christmas/New Years I have been able to do several of my winter activities and there is still plenty of winter to go. Glad I didn't buy into all the October hype for this winter. I kinda feel the way you do at this point, although Winter did start off great here. MQT, after last nights 2" is at 100" for the season so far which is pretty much right on target, but interestingly they're around 2' below average since Dec 1st. On average MQT should see another 100" if all goes as normal. Bottom line, there is still 8-10 weeks of great snowfall potential left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 At least we have this to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm a little disappointed that http://www.twisterdata.com doesn't plot the full 13km information from the new GFS. It looks like it has 25km grid scale information plotted. I'm not sure exactly how they are -not- plotting the 13-km information. Maybe they have a problem with computing power. I love the color schemes on there, and the click-to-forecast-sounding feature. Twisterdata was awesome a few years ago, but they're starting to fall behind the times unfortunately. They don't have features many model sites include now, such as regional views, and additional models like the WRF twins, 4km NAM, HRRR, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 At least we have this to look forward to Lock it in Hour 360 instead of 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Reading half of the post in the Lakes/OV forum is be described by Gimli: "You'll find more cheer in a graveyard." Ironically I have been mostly enjoying this winter. I'll admit it has been boring on the phasing storm side of the weather but outside of Christmas/New Years I have been able to do several of my winter activities and there is still plenty of winter to go. Glad I didn't buy into all the October hype for this winter. I am with you. This winter is REALLY bringing out the dividing line between those who like winter only for big storms, and those who enjoy winter for being winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I kinda feel the way you do at this point, although Winter did start off great here. MQT, after last nights 2" is at 100" for the season so far which is pretty much right on target, but interestingly they're around 2' below average since Dec 1st. On average MQT should see another 100" if all goes as normal. Bottom line, there is still 8-10 weeks of great snowfall potential left lol if we want to strictly talk "potential", then there is about 12 weeks here and 15 weeks for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I am with you. This winter is REALLY bringing out the dividing line between those who like winter only for big storms, and those who enjoy winter for being winter. Winter is nature's reset button. To me, spending the day in the silence of a snow filled forest with just your thoughts, or the cold, crispness of a star filled night to awaken your imagination and realize just how small we really are in this world, not only helps center me but also allows me to appreciate the other 3 seasons even more. If you're a couch 'tater winter is gonna suck. I choose to get out and enjoy it. That doesn't mean I won't be ready for Spring when it comes around, but I def won't feel like I had to white knuckle it through. Also for me, there's nothing sweeter than watching the earth wake up from a 6 month nap.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Twisterdata was awesome a few years ago, but they're starting to fall behind the times unfortunately. They don't have features many model sites include now, such as regional views, and additional models like the WRF twins, 4km NAM, HRRR, etc. Well yes. WXBell and Tropical Tidbits are outpacing every other web site in addition of new features and inclusion of the GFS-13km (in parallel mode or now regular mode.) I still like the feature of clicking to get a forecast sounding on Twisterdata and College of Dupage. That is helpful in the West, with varying topography. College of Dupage seems to be handling the 13-km GFS upgrade alright, but I think they may be plotting this at 25km, similar to Twisterdata. I wonder if these web sites (or others) are having a problem with the computing resources needed to fully process the 13km GFS GRIB files (or NETCDF or whatever.) I often use Penn State E-wall for the 4-km NAM and HRRR, as well as a quick easy look at the Euro. The HRRR updating seems to be quirky on Penn State E-wall. Instantweathermaps also has been dealing with the 13-km GFS alright. They have added some new free and and some new subscription features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 At least we have this to look forward to image.jpg image.jpg la la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 la la la lock it up I want to make sure the 0z run holds serve with the idea first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I want to make sure the 0z run holds serve with the idea first I'll take it 50 miles to the west please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well yes. WXBell and Tropical Tidbits are outpacing every other web site in addition of new features and inclusion of the GFS-13km (in parallel mode or now regular mode.) I still like the feature of clicking to get a forecast sounding on Twisterdata and College of Dupage. That is helpful in the West, with varying topography. College of Dupage seems to be handling the 13-km GFS upgrade alright, but I think they may be plotting this at 25km, similar to Twisterdata. I wonder if these web sites (or others) are having a problem with the computing resources needed to fully process the 13km GFS GRIB files (or NETCDF or whatever.) I often use Penn State E-wall for the 4-km NAM and HRRR, as well as a quick easy look at the Euro. The HRRR updating seems to be quirky on Penn State E-wall. Instantweathermaps also has been dealing with the 13-km GFS alright. They have added some new free and and some new subscription features. Yeah Twisterdata has great forecast soundings, which I use quite a bit. Of course COD does as well, and they are continuously evolving their model page with nice improvements. I'm a bit disappointed that Twisterdata has been completely static for the last several years. They need to keep up with the times so to speak. They have great graphics, but they need to do some updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 0z GFS decided to move the North Pole to Duluth for the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Since we are about halfway through winter, I thought that I would check NOAA's winter forecast against reality. Temps: They are nailing it with warmer than normal temps throughout the West. They are also doing well across the middle part of the country. Although it's not hard to be right with equal chances, most of this area is within 2° of normal. The jury is still out through the Mid South and in the Northeast, although they really need some warm temps from here on out in New England. They are blowing chunks in Florida and in the Northern Great Lakes region. Precip: Although they have the right idea of dry in the Pacific Northwest, the driest areas have been along the Washington, Oregon, and Norther California coasts, while the prediction was more inland. They are doing well with the wetter than normal prediction in the Southeast, but it had better start raining in the Southwest and Southern Florida. For the most part, the equal chances are lining up with near normal precip. The notable exception affects our area, where the drier than normal predictions are actually being displaced down into the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region, while the Great Lakes are near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 that's interesting to see the season as a whole so far. Every time those of us, complain and banter about the winter, someone pops up to tell us we don't know what we're talking about, and sprinkles more sugar on the turd. Stepping back and looking at it as a whole, pretty much vindicates those of us who describe this winter as lame and forgettable so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 that's interesting to see the season as a whole so far. Every time those of us, complain and banter about the winter, someone pops up to tell us we don't know what we're talking about, and sprinkles more sugar on the turd. Stepping back and looking at it as a whole, pretty much vindicates those of us who describe this winter as lame and forgettable so far. You can't sugarcoat 8.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The whole CONUS is above average right now. I'm wearing a t-shirt outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Interesting article/study done on the predictability of weather across the CONUS. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-city-has-the-most-unpredictable-weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So after most of January has been a beautiful winter wonderland, we now have a mangy, battered, patchy snowpack, and Im sure the last two days of 38-42F damp London air will be a fuse to ignite the flu even further. Oh how I love the traditional January thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So after most of January has been a beautiful winter wonderland, we now have a mangy, battered, patchy snowpack, and Im sure the last two days of 38-42F damp London air will be a fuse to ignite the flu even further. Oh how I love the traditional January thaw Hey, we're not your whipping boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hey, we're not your whipping boy. hehe meant London England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So after most of January has been a beautiful winter wonderland, we now have a mangy, battered, patchy snowpack, and Im sure the last two days of 38-42F damp London air will be a fuse to ignite the flu even further. Oh how I love the traditional January thaw Yup.... Living so close to the average high of 32F in January, sucks. There are beautiful snowmobile trails in SW Michigan, but they generally are closed most of the winter due to warmups. I drop what I'm doing and bust out there to ride whenever possible, because its generally 10 days at most away from being melted out. If it was my choice, I'd move north of 45 and never look back. 5 Degrees above normal and we lose all our snow... No buffer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So after most of January has been a beautiful winter wonderland, we now have a mangy, battered, patchy snowpack, and Im sure the last two days of 38-42F damp London air will be a fuse to ignite the flu even further. Oh how I love the traditional January thaw I had the flu real bad right after Christmas. Worst of it lasted 3-4 days, but took over 2 weeks to get completely clear of it's lasting affects. Was the most sick I'd been since I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We've been pretty fortunate here this winter to take advantage of what little action there's been as far as storm systems. My only real complaint is the lack of tracking of legit systems this winter. Seems like we've had huge down periods of time when the only conversation going on in this sub is about pattern evolution, and little in the way of storm thread conversations. Seems like most years I come home at the end of the day and have to spend a decent amount of time reading through all the posts of the day in regards to an upcoming threat for someone. This year we've had long abysmal periods of time when all the conversation is about global pattern evolution, and to be honest I don't have the attention span for that lol. I appreciate all who do though, and it's good to have the in-depth discussions/forecasts from those who enjoy that part of forecasting. However, I'm fiending for a legit storm system to track whether it's a clipper or whatever. Hopefully we get quite a bit of action the last few months of winter to make up for these long periods of inactivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GHD made me numb to seeing modeled 24" totals on a snow map for a storm... Last winter made me numb to seeing modeled 24" weekly snow totals and extreme cold... This year is certainly helping to break down those internal comps in my brain and slowly leaving them in the past as the anomalies they were.... Just part of the ritual of balancing expectations with realities of norms in this particular region... I'm just enjoying today for today as expectations and D10 model portrayals are nothing more than false advertisements that every now and then actually (or accidently) come to fruition. So far, my favorite event of the winter has to be the mini blizzard / clipper that we had a week or 2 back. My least favorite "event" has to be the numerous dog-paw-muddying thaws we have had from the beginning of December through today's date currently. Other than that (as I alluded to in the first few lines)....I shall call this winter the gentle detox of last winter and GHD ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GHD made me numb to seeing modeled 24" totals on a snow map for a storm... Last winter made me numb to seeing modeled 24" weekly snow totals and extreme cold... This year is certainly helping to break down those internal comps in my brain and slowly leaving them in the past as the anomalies they were.... Just part of the ritual of balancing expectations with realities of norms in this particular region... I'm just enjoying today for today as expectations and D10 model portrayals are nothing more than false advertisements that every now and then actually (or accidently) come to fruition. So far, my favorite event of the winter has to be the mini blizzard / clipper that we had a week or 2 back. My least favorite "event" has to be the numerous dog-paw-muddying thaws we have had from the beginning of December through today's date currently. Other than that (as I alluded to in the first few lines)....I shall call this winter the gentle detox of last winter and GHD ... Same here. That 5 minute burst of very heavy snow and 50+mph winds was the most exciting weather event IMBY in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know who this pattern is really bad for? California. After doing fairly well with precip in December, it's back to really dry this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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